http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zL0VoIgopPI

Sarah Palin decisively won the VP debate tonight.  And no, it wasn't due to Biden's annoying smirk, or his claim that he understands our needs because he's always at Home Depot, or his condescending "Let me say it again!" attitude that persisted throughout.  Rather, quite simply, Palin connected with every day, middle-class voters in a way that none of the other candidates could.

Hugh Hewitt points out that, "The Luntz focus group picked up the decisive Palin win, and Luntz is predicting a move towards McCain in the polls as a result."  I articulated this same thought right after the debate on Twitter.

In the last debate, Obama seriously solidified his position in the polls on the point of which candidate better "understands their needs and problems."  With the economy in the tank, this is going to be a critical factor when people come out to vote – and so McCain cannot afford to have tepid numbers in this area.  And unfortunately, I don't think there was much McCain himself could do to improve these numbers.

Enter Sarah Palin, the only one of the four Presidential and VP candidates who currently has actual ties to average middle class Americans.  For this debate to have been success for McCain, she needed to connect with these voters and demonstrate that the McCain-Palin ticket understands their needs.  She did so in a knock-out fashion.  For his part, Biden looked, well, Senatorial, boring, and uninspiring – all the while, Palin came across as a regular, hard-working American, a mother of five – certainly not as a politician.

Her immense success in tonight's debate will re-energize the Right, but more importantly, it will also reassure many Americans in two ways:  first, that she is absolutely, unquestionably ready to, if called upon, step up as President; and second, that the McCain-Palin ticket understands and will fight for everday Americans.  As a result, I expect to see a modest boost in the polls for McCain over the next few days.

The critical question, however, remains:  can McCain maintain this momentum in the last two debates?  The answer is yes, but McCain will need to drive home the points raised by Palin in tonight's debate.  He needs to continue to demonstrate that he understands the middle class' needs and problems, while at the same time showing that Obama does not.  But McCain the Maverick should not have much trouble doing that.

So much for people criticizing Sarah Palin for not being ready for the spotlight.  Tonight, she had a chance to talk directly to everyday Americans – and she shined like the star she is.

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.

I was on the phone with Lis Wiehl of Fox News. Lis was filling in for Steve Malzberg, a popular conservative radio talk show host here in New York. Basically, I called into give my assessment of the Vice Presidential debates tomorrow night. Ladies and Gentlemen, step right up! It’s…

The Vice Presidential debate is less than two weeks away, and it will be an unconventional one for sure. There has been only one time when a women debated a man in the Vice Presidential debate, and that was Geraldine Ferraro, against George H.W. Bush. 

There is no doubt that both camps are studying the video to learn the do's and dont's of debate that involves a women. George H.W. Bush came off as condescending when debating Ferraro, and that is not because of what he said so much as how he delivered it.

Ferraro voiced displeasure in the debate, and accused Bush of patronizing her. This is because Bush's choice of words were what he would have said to a man, and not to a women. While the facts don't change just because you are debating a women, the perceptions of the audience definately do. 

Joe Biden has a tendency to come off negative and personal, and it could really work against him in the debate. I don't think Sarah Palin would bother to accuse him of patronizing her, she would most likely just fire back. This works for her, by showing she can keep her cool and still make her point, she makes herself look like the more collected candidate.

It is for this reason Biden has a disadvantage from the start. He will be on the defensive, being very careful to not come off as sexist, and will have to walk on eggshells when talking to her. This is not ideal for Biden, but it is a lot better than the alternative, which is looking a shovenist.

Regardless, there will be plenty of fireworks, and Biden is a very good debater. Most likely, no one will emerge a clear victor in this debate. Biden would be well advised to hold his tongue in regards to personal attacks, and stick very close to the issues.

Palin will come out swinging, and does have the potential to really shake Biden up, but his years of experience will most likely serve to keep the debate very close. All he has to do is avoid a gaffe, and he should come out with no damage. 

Palin may also be able to escape with no damage. If she can even hold her own against someone with so much experience doing debates, then that in itself should help the debate not appear one sided. The bottom line is both candidates should come out unscathed, making this a safe debate for both campaigns.

Sarah Palin was a Mayor and then Governor of Alaska.    This is widely criticized by the Leftosphere and Democrats as insufficient experience.  

Tim Kaine - who "rank[ed] very, very high on the short list" for Barack Obama was also...a mayor and Governor of Virginia for less than a full term.  The only things that distinguish Tim Kaine from Sarah Palin are...

• Tim Kaine also served one term as Lt. Gov.
• Tim Kaine is far less popular in Virginia (56% approval) than Gov. Palin is in Alaska (80% approval)
• Gov. Palin took steps to clean up her own Party; Gov. Kaine's biggest reform appears to have been embarrassing the Raising Kaine blog into dropping the "Kaine" from its name.

Barack Obama was very close to putting Gov. Kaine on his ticket.   But today Obama and Carville are saying that being a Mayor and Governor is insufficient? 

That's what opportunism looks like.

A source inside the McCain campaign confirms a massive online fundraising haul since Sarah Palin was named as the VP -- $4.5 million in the first 24 hours, part of a $7 million overall fundraising burst.

It strikes me that while Obama mastered the process of leaking out the pick -- the text messaging gambit, stringing the press along with false timing teaks -- only to pick someone underwhelming and uninspiring, McCain mastered the substance, with minimal hype upfront and who did exactly what he needed a VP pick to do once announced. 

I've been a longtime supporter of Sarah Palin as McCain's running mate (see here and here) – but I was honestly expecting a boring pick (read: Romney or Pawlenty) for McCain's running mate.  Suffice it to say, I'm thoroughly excited that McCain picked Palin.  Her pick was brilliant political strategy, and now the McCain campaign stands to make significant inroads among the disallusioned, and in many cases angry, former Clinton supporters.

She fits the bill perfectly, and is a perfect counter to Obama's yawner of a running mate in Joe Biden.

So there are some questions still to be answered: how will she fare versus Biden in a debate? What about the potential "scandal" revolving around her brother-in-law?

But despite this, McCain did something that Obama would not: he took a risk, but in doing so, he picked a running mate with enormous upside potential.  So here's to McCain-Palin 2008!

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.

As I've previously written here, I believe that there are two fundamental "theories" that are essential in selecting John McCain's running mate, namely: co-opting the public's desire for change, and demonstrating the desire to end "politics as usual" in Washington.  There are a few Vice Presidential candidates who fulfill these criteria – namely, Governors Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin.  Since Governor Jindal has indicated that he isn't interested in the job, that leaves Sarah Palin as the best candidate under these criteria.

Indeed, with the nomination of Senator Biden as Barack Obama's running mate, there couldn't be a more perfect setting for a McCain-Palin ticket.  At the most basic level, Biden detracts from the entire premise of the "hope and change" theme central to the Obama campaign – he is, as Patrick Ruffini pointed out, the longest serving legislator ever on a national ticket.  Palin, on the other hand, is a Washington outsider with executive experience – and the lack of such experience on the Obama campaign is certainly something that a McCain-Palin ticket could hammer home.

The most significant benefit of Palin for VP, however, stems from the defection of former Clinton voters.  By adding a dynamic and popular female Governor to the ticket, McCain could stand to make significant inroads among disaffected Clinton voters.  Two recent polls indicate that there is a real opportunity for McCain to win over former Clinton supporters.  The USA Today/Gallup poll shows that less than half of Clinton supporters will definitely support Obama; 30% say they will support John McCain or another candidate, and another 23% may support John McCain.  The NBC/WSJ poll indicates that 21% will vote for McCain and 27% are undecided.

Therefore, it appears that McCain could win over a significant portion of former Clinton supporters – perhaps upward of 30% of them.  In critical battleground states like Pennsylvania or Ohio, the Clinton factor could easily change the race in favor of McCain.

For example, in the Pennsylvania primary, 1.275 million votes were cast for Hillary Clinton.  In Ohio, a similar 1.2 million votes were cast for Clinton.  If just 10% of those Clinton voters were to defect to McCain, that would translate into a net gain for McCain of about 127,500 votes in Pennsylvania and 120,000 votes in Ohio.  Considering that Kerry's margin of victory in 2004 in Pennsylvania was not quite 150,000 votes, winning over these disallusioned Clinton folks could prove to be a formidable edge for John McCain.

The only concern with regard to Palin's candidacy is the ongoing controversy surrounding Palin's dismissal of the Commissioner of Public Safety – however, it appears that the issue is blowing over.

There is a prospective VP nominee who could shake up this election in Governor Sarah Palin.  Let's hope that when John McCain announces his running mate, it turns out to be her.

Aaron Marks is President of Three Group, LLC, a Pittsburgh-based new media firm that focuses on providing technology-based solutions for Republican candidates and organizations, and in particular has built Web 2.0 campaign management software called Mission Control.  Aaron also worked in new media and voter outreach on Senator Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election campaign.

I just want to respond to some of the comments made about my previous post about McCain and his bad veep options.

You loathed Romney? You were probably a Huck-supporter, and thus a self-righteous populist. There's a reason why Rush Limbaugh, the biggest voice of true conservatism, always criticized Huck and McCain, yet praised Romney, subtly, yet often.

Actually, I didn't think much of Huck either. His style always seemed very similar to the conservative southern democrats that once existed. His tax plan was unworkable and his positions made clear that he supported vast increases of "infrastrucutre" spending. 

Perhaps "loathed" was too strong. My problem with Romney was mainly the way he was being presented, not necessarily the man himself. Rush and many other prominent conservatives promoted him on the basis that he was a true conservative.  But Romney, it must be remembered, raised taxes as governor, suffered poor job growth in MA, instituted an expensive health care system that has been slammed by the Wall Street Journal as a prelude to Obama/Hillarycare, and promised to bail out the auto industry in Michigan. Some would say that that sort of record would make him an "abolute disaster". In any case, I don't see how any of those reflect "true conservatism".       

Not much there that would sawy voters to Obama since they were fights about conservative ideology and not really about fundamentals like experience.  "Dont vote McCain because McCain said Romney flipflopped on an issue" is really really really lame.     

But I'm pretty sure that Romney slammed McCain for not knowing enough about the economy. Since that is the Democrat's big theme, they probably have already prepared an ad similar to the Biden one, where they can go "See? Even his veep admits he can't handle the economy".

Palin would be a good pick.

Another problem with Palin, though, is that she is a pretty recent governor (Dec. 2006) and an NBC poll has shown that 20% are actually less likely to support McCain if he picks a woman.

Of course, since McCain has zero chance of winning, it does not really matter who he picks.                            

Really? He's almost tied with BO (prompting notcable panic from the Dems), slightly ahead in the electoral college, and he has a zero chance? Can't he at least get a 25% chance out of this?                 

I think this tells me more about you then you're trying to tell us about McCain's VP picks. He, himself, is an absolute disaster. I still feel sick that we have him to represent us.

So I guess the rumors are that McCain veep pick has been narrowed to three people: Lieberman, Romney, and Pawlenty.

All three of these guys are going to inflict damage on him:

Lieberman--It's not just that he's pro-choice. His entire domestic policy platform is, in general, far to the left of McCain's. He'd have to repudiate about half his policy positions to get on the ticket and it won't be pretty. It will look like an act of desperation on McCain's part, an admission that he's too close to Bush. This risky option currently makes zero sense for McCain.

Romney--At first glance this guy makes a great VP, and I say that even though I myself loathed him during the primaries. The idea is that he can help carry Nevada and Michigan and add economic expertise to the ticket. Furthermore, he'd be a great attack dog against Obama. But he has three huge drawbacks: 1) Religious conservatives don't like him 2) The Democrats will slam him for layoffs while he was in the private sector and 3) considering that McCain is using primary material to go after Biden, Obama will almost certainly replay the McCain/Romney fights.

Pawlenty--This man is still unknown outside Minnesota. The only things I myself know about him are that he only narrowly won the governorship of Minnesota and has been a "reformer". That might help him counter Obama's "change" mantra, but I just don't know. Since I have never listened to him speak I can't say if he'd be an articulate veep or a good attack dog. He doesn't have foreign policy cred either. But he'd be my choice by process of elimination.

There are some other names floating around, but I don't think they are seriously being considered:

Ridge--A non-conservative who probably can't carry Pennsylvania.

Palin--Alaska governor but I heard she gave bad interviews or something.

Portman--A Bush guy. Disqualified.

Kasich--He might have said something dumb while he was doing that show on Fox News.

Cantor--Another unknown congressmen.