The State of the Race: Ohio Leans McCain

It’s time to update the Presidential maps. First, the all important map with “Leaning States” included:

  • The latest Ohio Rasmussen Poll shows McCain up by 7. The last 3 Rasmussen polls show McCain up by 7, 5, and 10 points. There have been polls indicating Obama leads but CNN poll was a nearly useless “Registered Voter” poll instead of a likely voter poll and the Quinnipiac Poll had a bizarre 7 day polling period.  Leans McCain.
  • Both the Democratic Public Policy Polling and Republican Strategic Vision polls show Obama with a narrow 1 point lead. Three state polls show Obama’s lead within the margin. Let’s call it a toss up.

Based on these changes, here’s my new electoral map with leaners, giving McCain a 247-243 lead.

However, it’s not all good news for McCain:

  • Even after the Convention bounce, the latest Rasmussen Poll showed Florida tied, and a Strategic Vision poll shows McCain up 5.  Can I really say that Florida is not in play. At this point, I have to conced it’s in play, leaving Obama with an edge in states that are certain to go one way or another 190-174:

Other notes that while not changing the map (genrally because they’re single polls) are plenty intriguing:

  • Treasure State Dreams Dashed? Based on reports from family members in Montana, I was quite nervous about Montana. Senator Biden was in my old home town of Kalispell today and Obama has been there several times. In addition, while in most states, Ron Paul is not on the ballot, he is in Montana as the Montana Constitution Party withdrew Chuck Baldwin to place Ron Paul on the ticket. The latest Rasmussen Poll puts McCain up 11. While this doesn’t include 3rd party candidates, Camp Obama cannot be happy with this given the effort they’ve poured into turning the Treasure State blue.
  • A Northwest Advantage? The Montana poll, coupled with a poll from Washington raises an intriguing question. Survey USA shows Obama up by only 4. Could Palin be helping McCain in the Northwest. She’s the first major Presidential or Vice-President nominee from the Northwest (yes, I know there have been candidates.) Washington will be a tough state to flip as Kerry won by 9.5% Oregon may be easier as it went to John Kerry by only 4.5% in 2004 and in 2000, it was only 0.44% for Al Gore. Turning Oregon red would be great, if nothing else than to annoy Radical Russ.
  • Sweet Carolina: Another state that Obama hoped to capture was North Carolina. That effort may be in some trouble. The average poll had been showing John McCain up by 4 in the Tarheel state. The latest Survey USA poll shows McCain up 20. If this holds up in future polling, it’ll be a bitter disappointment for Team Obama which sems to be looking like a Fall version of the Mitt Romney campaign which put millions into states that they ended up losing.
  • Ignore New Jersey: New Jersey is a state that loves to sing a siren song to Republican Presidential nominees by indicating a strong possibility of victory. The latest Fairleigh-Dickinson poll shows Obama up only 6.  Hopefully, won’t expend resources here. There’s simply no way he wins New Jersey. Please ignore the siren.
  • Bad News: The polls across the country while not conclusive indicate Obama has some major weaknesses. Fox News/Rasmussen has Obama up only 2 in Pennsylvania, and Strategic Vision has Obama’s once mighty lead in Wisconsin at only 3.
  • On Obama’s Bright Side: The Obama campaign can take comfort in two states. In Colorado, the latest Fox/Rasmussen Poll has Obama up 3. Not great, but given the positive attention the GOP ticket has gotten, Obama will take it. Meanwhile, in the swing state of Virginia, even after the GOP’s successful convention, two Virginia polls put McCain up by only 2 points. The salvation of the Obama campaign this Fall could be the transformation of Virginia into a state dominated by federal employees in Northern Virginia, partially as a result of George W. Bush’s “big government” conservatism.
  • False Hope: To amend Barack Obama, “In the unlikely story that is America, there’s never been anything false about hope (unless it’s depended on young voters.)” The one hope that many liberals have to have is that pollsters are missing younger voters who use cellphones only and can’t be polled. The problem, as Ed Morrissey writes, “If this concern had merit, we should have seen Obama overperforming against polling during the primaries against Hillary Clinton.  He had a solid grip on the youth vote throughout all of the polling, after all, while Hillary appealed to older voters.  Yet in state after state, Obama underperformed against polling predictions.”


GOP Youth Convention


What are you doing to effect the upcoming election?  Are you a young member of society and you feel like you cannot do anything because you are inexperienced in the political relam or that you do not know where to start.  Well how about you get trained by some of the best grassroots political organizers in the country so that you can go out and truely make a difference in the upcoming election. 

For just $50 you will be able to get this training without missing any school all while in Minneapolis at the Republican National Convention.  That is right just e-mail info@gopyouthconvention.org and join young members of the Republican party from around America as they come together to be trained to be the future grassroots organizers for the GOP. 

I hope that you will all inquire about this wonderful opportunity to help share not just this important election but you to help our wonderful party for years to come.

Thanks, and I hope to see you in Minneapolis.

Bright idea: Senate GOP actually gets behind a winning issue

Ed at Hot Air brought this video to my attention, which features 15 GOP Senators, including Tennessee's Lamar Alexander and Bob Corker, calling on the Democrats for a "balanced energy plan." A great addendum to the House GOP effort, actually.

Here's what I like about this video. It's fast-moving, it's solutions-based, and it's surprisingly Internet savvy for Republican Senators. It's a smart appeal to young voters (the Coldplay song would be passé, except I'll give the GOP a pass because at least it's from this century.), and it doesn't talk down to us. The call for their Democratic colleagues to do something is much more senatorial, which makes sense and bookends the revolutionary air behind the House's Guerrilla Congress.

My only hope is that the GOP in Congress uses this as an opportunity to step out of the way, not try to be too meddlesome like with Comprehensive Immigration Reform. Republicans need to know that what we do best is let the market and the people do their jobs.

 Mike Warren posts at RIght-Wing Vitriol from Vanderbilt University.

The White House is Wrong

Figures - President Bush denies House GOP special session.

I doubt this will have any affect on the House GOP leaders who are continuing their efforts this week from the House floor, but it is somewhat disheartening. The White House claims that there is no point in calling Congress back into session for a bill that the Democrats won't allow an up-down vote on.

The White House is wrong.

The point would be to force televised debate on an issue and shine a light on Pelosi's roadblocking. The point would be to support conservatives in Congress when they need it most. The point would be to align this White House with conservatives and give a badly needed boost to sagging conservative confidence in the Republican Party. The point would be to gain momentum for drilling - just serious discussion about drilling has made oil prices drop slightly, putting us on the road to easing the deathgrip high gas prices have on the nation's economy.

We're fooling ourselves if we don't believe that gas prices have been one of the primary causes for economic worry. And as we enter hurricane season in full force, with tropical storms already aiming dead-on at platforms and refineries in the Gulf, we need to do everything possible to give relief before the worst befalls us once again.

Incidentally, John McCain supports bringing Congress back into session.

Newt Gingrich, Bobby Jindal, Michael Steele Named Co-Chairs of GOP Youth Convention


                                                     Media Contact (202)544-7525 Info@GOPYouthConvention.org                    

WASHINGTON, July 30, 2008 - Today GOP Youth Convention.Org announced that Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal, and GOPAC Chair and former Md. Lt Governor Michael Steele will serve as Honorary Co-chairs of its campaign to bring young people to the GOP National Convention in Minneapolis, Minnesota.

"We are very excited that these outstanding leaders of the Republican Party will co-chair our campaign to bring a new generation of young leaders and volunteers to the GOP Convention in Minneapolis," said Namrata Idnani, a student co-chairman of the group.

In a special program over Labor Day weekend, GOP Youth Convention.Org will offer opportunities for young people from around the country to meet other young leaders, hear from and interact with elected officials, and learn how to be better grassroots organizers and political communicators. Other programs will extend throughout the week of the National Convention

"The new generation of leaders who join us in Minneapolis will experience a historic event: the nomination of John McCain for President of the United States," said Soren Dayton, Director of the GOP Youth Convention.

The group's education and training program will take place at Concordia University in Minneapolis, MN starting on Labor Day weekend and continuing throughout the week of the National Convention through Friday September 5th. An opening "welcome" party will take place at the Hard Rock cafe in Minneapolis during the evening on Friday, August 29. Other social events will continue throughout the Convention week.

Affordable accommodations are available for group participants.

For more information, interested individuals may call the group's office at (202) 544-7525, or visit our website at  www.gopyouthconvention.org


GOTV: Past, Present & Future

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

I've been involved with many facets of many different types of campaigns: local school board, city council, state legislature, statewide gubernatorial, congressional, ballot initiative, and in-state presidential organizations. When I occassionally speak at campaign management and organization seminars, I am often asked the question: what is the most important part of the campaign? That question is so hard to answer because (1) campaigns are short-term "fire-fighting" operations as much as they are long-term strategic organziations, and (2) each part of the campaign (or at least a good campaign) is interconnected.

Yes, most of the money that gets spent is on paid media, and some will say that because of this, fundraising is the most important facet. While I don't disagree, something that I focus a lot of my attention on is GOTV efforts, a low-cost and high-importance category that has to be planned from the very beginning of the campaign but is executed in the last 72 hours.

So here are a few items of interest that all deal with GOTV efforts:

How Oil Drilling Galvanizes the Right

Three striking facts from today.

Newt Gingrich's Drill Now petition is now at over 1 million signatures.

The American Family Association sent out an alert to its massive list and got 400,000 letters sent to Congress for more oil drilling. Why is this important? In presentations, I often cite the AFA's monster list as the biggest on the Right. And in my years on their list, I've never seen them focus on anything other than social issues. Their focus on oil is a big, big deal.

And Jerome Armstrong is waving Democrats off this issue, with a telling anecdote about Charlie Crist's rather abrupt about-face on offshore drilling. 

A veteran of Florida politics who is not tied to Crist says the gas price-driven poll numbers justify the drilling flip-flop (justify in the political sense, that is):

"[After many years working in the state], I would have told you that it was the single issue that would never, ever, ever change. Ev-uh," says the source.

But "somewhere between $3.00 and $4.00, the [poll] number literally flipped upside down."

Every wing of the party is uniting behind this issue in a very viral, visceral way. The public is on our side. And Democrats are on the wrong side.

Time to twist the knife.

The Ten ways you can Lose my Vote:

By Larry Bernard

When it comes to the politicians I want representing me you don't have to agree with me 70% of the time, you don't have to agree with me 60% of the time. But their are ten issues that to me Matter.

I: I Have the Freedom to Speak, and the Freedom to associate so long as I'm not undertaking criminal conduct:
The Constitution is pretty clear on this issue but Senators Obama and McCain both fail and fail broadly on this issue. McCain-Feingold, Restricting public speech, even meddling with baseball (If roids in baseball are a problem, its a crime let the DEA handle it). Neither of these men respect my right to speak (and how I choose to donate is my speech as well) or the freedom for me to associate and govern my free associations myself.
II: I have the Freedom to own and use a gun so long as I am not a criminal, mentally disabled, or unable to be legally responsible. So long as I am not using it in commission of a crime:
McCain gets a C on gun rights but unfortunately I use the system they use in Grad School where a C is really an F. The Only Solace is Senator Obama is so bad on Guns he has passed Regular F and is now a holder of The Super F
III:We do not Nationalize Health Care.
McCain gets a C on this issue for talk. But again a C is failing. When other Senators and Congressmen fight the political mythology on Health Care they speak of the actual health care crisis. Whats really going on wrong in the Health Care system. McCain just says "ummmm Free market solutions." its that half assed attitude which will lead to the ruin of what is good (and a lot is good) in American health care. Again like with Gun issues the only Solace for the McCain campaign is Obama has a Super F. Which is frightening because in the Primaries he just had a D
IV:Humanity should grow, not decline:
This is a larger critique of John McCain and the contemporary view on Global warming. Lets set asside the is it/Is it not real bit for a moment. Energy equals wealth in a nut shell. By saying that people in the West should have less energy consumption your saying their should be less wealth in the west. By saying people in the third world should not be allowed to grow their energy consumption your saying you should damn those people to poverty for generations. Thats at its core an idea which is so contrary to capitalism its rather Ruinous. On this Standard McCain actually has the Super F because he wants to make people fail more and Obama only has an F
V:The United States of America is great:
America is an exceptional nation in the world, and in human history. And because of the good it has done and the good it will do America Deserves the best defense through Hard and Soft Power it can get. Here John McCain actually gets a passing grade an A-. Obama however gets an F+ (and he teases at getting a D)
VI:People should be Free to spend their money.
Buisnesses, families, individuals. Government should tax them as little as possible:
 Due to the Global Warming plan and John McCain's attacking the Bush Tax Cuts when he needs the political points with the New York Times he gets a C on this issue. Which is failure. Obama gets an F+ only because on a recent CNBC interview I saw he said he might raise taxes, more/Less/or not at all then he has promised.
VII:Judges should be appointed that respect the constitution and the rule of law:
McCain gets a B- here. Its still passing but because he has shown contempt for the first and second Amendments and I doubt he will appoint judges who are any better then he is. Likewise his own I like Alito/no I don't talk. Here Obama gets an F- and he is teasing a Super F
VIII:So long as States aren't being stupid you should respect Federalism:
If your California with Pot and Gay Marriage, or Oregon with Euthanasia you lose this right. On this issue John McCain has a Solid A. And Obama gets a Solid D- (because he thinks its ok for it to happen when it can subvert the laws in other states.)
IX: Criminals should be Punished for breaking the law:
McCain gets an A- on this one, due to his desire to grandstand with crusading against Criminals but Obama due to his years in Illinois in the legislature gets a D-
X: Unless Business and Capitalism is doing something illegal you shouldn't badmouth them:
You say "we need to pass reforms" fine and dandy I can go along with that. But when you attack drug companies and oil companies over their profits the way John McCain has you get a C and Obama gets another F

These are the 10 ways a politician will lose me.

John McCain Flips off Conservatives again

Because what would make Conservative Republicans with Agina about him happy then making a Big Tax, Big Nanny State government Mayor his #2 on the ticket


June 11, 2008 --

Sen. John McCain praised Mayor Bloomberg yesterday - talking up Hizzoner as a strong candidate for governor and refusing to rule him out as a vice presidential candidate.



But I am sure people on here will tell me why his saying such a thing shouldn't bother conservatives

More change we Can believe in

Obama is now flip flopping on his pledge to only use Public Money if the Republican Canidate did the same

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