New York

As the nation watches the events in New York's 23rd Congressional district unfold, an appropriate title for this story would be “How to squander money and alienate your base." After the Saturday withdrawal of Republican Dede Scozzfava, the GOP is reeling from a massive insurgency by its conservative base. Of course, the story got stranger as Erick Erickson

of Redstate reports

“Dede Scozzafava is throwing her support to the Democrat, Bill Owens.

"She and her husband are working with union activists to drive the vote up for the Democrat.

"The Republican Party spent $900,000.00 to help her and this is how she repays them.

"And Pete Sessions, Chairman of the NRCC, and Guy Harrison, Executive Director of the NRCC, still have their jobs and are failing to take responsibility for this disaster, instead blaming conservatives.”

In the GOP there are still some are shaking their heads and wondering what went wrong. The GOP nominated a “moderate” and if she happened to have big labor and ACORN ties, then so be it. For once, the elephant in the room was not the GOP but this blatant, illogical and damaging alliance it had formed with Scozzafava. As the Wall Street journal reports, this relationship would eventually set off a national chain of events:

“Saturday's decision by Republican Dede Scozzafava to drop out of tomorrow's special Congressional election in upstate New York is a potentially big political moment that could help to return the GOP to first principles—or could lead to internecine ruin. Much will depend on how GOP leaders and conservative activists respond.

"Picked by GOP elites without a primary and with a voting record to the left of many Albany Democrats, Ms. Scozzafava faced a revolt by local and national conservatives in favor of businessman Doug Hoffman, who was nominated on the Conservative Party line. The longtime GOP assemblywoman saw herself falling in the polls and yesterday endorsed Democratic lawyer Bill Owens, who could still win the GOP-leaning seat with a plurality.”

Republican liaisons with far left Democrats have already been detrimental to the conservative movement and Scozzafava's ties to ACORN and their “affiliated” Working Families Party was covered extensively in the blogosphere. Top Republicans chose to ignore the corruption right under their nose and to sell out their base by following the Left's mantra to elect “moderates”. These “moderates” tend to be leftists in Republican clothing. Kirsten Gillibrand is an example of a local “moderate” who abandoned her principles and base after being promoted from Congressperson to United States Senator. Republicans like Darrell Issa (who released a damning report on ACORN last July) backed Scozzafava while still pursing ACORN corruption.

In any partnership, there is compromise. Some compromise is acceptable, but fundamental values should not be compromised. When conservatives align themselves with polar opposites, it always seems that they are doing so because of race considerations or political expediency. During a panel discussion in which I participated on October 23, 2009, Cliff Kincaid of Accuracy in Media asked why Republicans in the Bush administration approved ACORN funding.

John Fund of the Wall Street Journal, replied that Republicans acquiesced with the pretense that these organizations are doing good work and that race is a major factor behind that acquiescence.

While partisanship should not play a role in exposing corruption, when that corruption is rooted in the pay for play politics that tip heavily to the Left, partisanship cannot be ignored. Nonprofit groups have been allowed to run rampant with charitable donations that somehow elect Democrats. To stop this trend, conservatives must become creative and steer clear of situations like the one in the NY 23 with Scozzafava. If such situations are allowed to continue, others will succeed in dividing the GOP from the grassroots conservatives, and thus strengthening the left.

ACORN is a Democrat scandal and it is hard to separate one from the other. Corruption is the overriding theme and it comes mostly from the left. Another particularly odd pairing continues to be the radical reformers of ACORN and top Conservatives and Republicans. The ACORN 8, a group of former ACORN board members, have formed a Scozzafava-like partnership with the Republicans. In attempting to expose ACORN, some appear to have ignored key facts and overlooked a pattern of withholding key information to coincide with opportunistic timing aimed at aiding Democrats. An example of this is the complete removal of two longtime Obama ACORN cronies from a complaint filed with the United States Justice Department last January by the ACORN 8. Madeline Talbott is described by Stanley Kurtz of the National Review Online as “the woman who first drew Obama into an alliance with ACORN.” And Keith Kelleher is Talbott's husband, the Chief Organizer of SEIU Local 880 in Chicago.

Another example of the GOP ignoring the evidence in front of it involves investigative reporting by the National Legal and Policy Center, a group that "promotes ethics in public life through research, investigation, education and legal action." The NLPC uncovered more on ACORN's relationship with Scozzafava. The GOP seems quick to support organizations and people with strong ties to ACORN as long as they technically are not ACORN. Unfortunately for conservatives, the credibility being bestowed on such groups receives little scrutiny beyond the blogosphere and Fox News . Key ACORN opponents have formed relationships of convenience with little thought to the outcome. As the NLPC reports, even the unions are involved:

“The powerful New York City-based health care workers union, Service Employees International Union (SEIU) Local 1199, also has endorsed Owens. But common sense says that if Mrs. Scozzafava is elected, she effectively will have established a Republican congressional beachhead for ACORN, who would claim its 'bipartisanship.' It's not as if her own party will be against her. Top GOP members sending her checks include House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Minority Whip Eric Cantor (Virginia), National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Pete Sessions (Texas), Rep. Kevin McCarthy (California), Rep. Jeb Hensarling (Texas), and Rep. Peter King (N.Y.).

"How did leading Republicans, some of whom (like Boehner) have been ACORN's toughest critics, come to endorse a candidate with a history of endorsements by its main political front, the Working Families Party?" (emphasis mine).

Good question. In NY 23, the GOP candidate selecters chose to ignore the evidence of Scozzafava's ACORN tainted background. Just as the GOP and Fox have also ignored the clear statement on the ACORN 8's website which does not call for not for full truth, transparency and accountability by ACORN to the American people. Rather, as stated on the ACORN 8 website, they call for "truth, transparency and accountability within ACORN." Apparently in exposing ACORN it certainly does not hurt to have a black face to speak about ACORN corruption. The color of whistleblowers should not be important, but their message should be.

When groups like the ACORN 8 speak to conservatives and tell them that ACORN was a great organization that was “hijacked” by some who had sinister motives, it's believable if no one checks the facts. How can an organization whose founder remained in place for almost 40 years become hijacked? How can ACORN be reformed if the same longtime insiders are the new control group? This fiction must be exposed. Fox has been leading the way on exposing ACORN while other so called respected media outlets like the New York Times, finally admitted to having been continually scooped by Fox. But Fox needs to report all the facts to its viewers instead of promoting the ACORN 8 and wishful thinking.

As TV/Radio host Glenn Beck continues to expose the true subversive nature of ACORN, and Obama's radical roots, he contradicts many of the assertions made by this group of reformers. Though no one ever mentions the distortions on air, one has to wonder if Fox is doing its viewers a disservice by aligning themselves with groups who support Obama' s policy initiatives. As the conservative base mobilizes online, there is a disconnect between then and the so called leaders. The base sprung into action as a subsequent Glenn Beck boycott of advertisers begun by Van Jones and his organization Color of Change attempted to silence Beck and that same base is ready to fight as ACORN attempts to DeFox America.

Those outside of this boycott alliance spread the word on Twitter and Facebook about the Left's attempt to silence Beck, while the ACORN 8 remained largely silent on these issues and others that concern the very people they fundraise and ask to support their efforts. Like the $990,000 the Republicans spent on Scozzafava, conservatives are being asked to foot the bill for a partnership that was never ideologically aligned with theirs. As stated, such partnerships are rarely mutually beneficial for long. While the Left exploits the fears of conservatives on the issues of race, conservatives must be willing to fight back and respond to the blows instead of merely trying to deflect them.

After watching the ACORN prostitution stings, Americans do not see ACORN as serving a noble purpose and one has to wonder what people were doing on the ACORN board for years. Marcel Reid was active in ACORN for nine years and her story that the ACORN board was "ceremonial" does not excuse any board member. She claims to have noticed ACORN corruption only after the embezzlement scandal was publicly reported. As a former employee who started in October of 2005, I was already calling the folks at www.rottenacorn.com by May of 2007.

The question now is whether the GOP can overcome its fear of being labeled "racist" by the left and learn to respond to these attacks. Fear of that seems to be the tipping point for their ultimately disastrous relationships with liberals who wish to keep Democrats in power.

Until and unless we conservatives form our own groups and become more involved in the communities of color, we will find ourselves aligned with every group that sprouts from the ACORN seed. ACORN 8 professes to love ACORN and does not want to see it dismantled, just "reformed. " But ignoring the reality of the radical ACORN 8 potentially opens that door to other alliances with ACORN "insiders" who are willing to offer information in exchange for credibility and a chance to retaliate against the very control group that threw them out.

The Politico reports that the White House under Rahm Emanuel orchesterated the Scozzafava endorsement of Bill Owens in NY 23.

Fearful that the party had almost no chance of winning the Nov. 3 New York special election after Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava abruptly announced Saturday that she was dropping out, high-ranking national Democrats immediately began working to secure her endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens, POLITICO has learned.

 

 

On Sunday afternoon, their vigorous efforts paid off as Scozzafava bucked her own party and issued a statement supporting Owens over Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, a coup for Democrats who recognized that their best remaining chance of winning the Republican-leaning seat on Tuesday was to swing disaffected Scozzafava supporters their way. By Sunday night, Scozzafava had taped her endorsement and it was being delivered via robo-call into targeted district households.

 

 

The story of how it went down began in Washington, where the White House and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee quarterbacked the effort to secure Scozzafava’s endorsement.

And if you think the real reason for this 11th hour betrayal was about helping her district, please. We are talking about an Albany politician, now.

Scozzafava was offered material inducements for her endorsement from Democratic Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver. 

Also critical was Silver’s assurance, in a phone conversation with Scozzafava, that the state Assembly Democratic caucus would embrace her if she chose to switch parties, now viewed as a real possibility after her endorsement Sunday of Owens.

 

 

June O'Neill, until earlier this year the New York Democratic Party chair, played an even more important role in courting Scozzafava, according to one New York official, because they “go to the same social events—church bingo night and the high school dance.”

It now seems highly likely Scozzafava is going to switch parties and be assured of various legislative perks---maybe even a chairmanship-- from Speaker Silver. And she will be assured  of  hige financial backing from the NY Democrats for her re-election. And who knows how many "member items" are going to be dangled her way?

There's an old saying that an honest politician is one who stays bought. I suppose we will see in a few days if that describes Ms. Scozzafava

Everyone assumes Scozzafava's exit from the race guarantees Hoffman's victory.  Why?  If her 20 percent move to Owens instead of Hoffman, the Democrats get a blowout victory.

So what reason would a Scozzafava supporter have to move right instead of left?  Vocal conservatives have gone out of their way to insult moderates, denigrate them as RINOs and do everything possible to make clear they are not wanted or needed in the Republican party.  Putting Scozzaffava's scalp on the wall is being protrayed as a major victory for conservatives over moderates.  Now they are counting on these same moderates to put party loyalty over ideological preferences and swing their 20 percent of the vote to Hoffman instead of Owens. 

If I ived in New York 23, I would be voting for Hoffman regardless of whether Scozzafava stayed in the race or got out; but I would also recognize the legitimate place for moderates in the Republican party.  I would also be spending the next 2 days trying to communicate with Scozzafava moderates rather than attacking them and definately put an end to the victory dances over her electoral corpse.

In Virginia, Bob Mcdonnell has maintained open respectful communicatin between conservatives and moderates.  He is stomping the liberals into the ground.  In New York 23 Conservatives have persued a scorched earth campaign against the moderates.  On Tuesday, we will learn whether or not they have gone too far.

Conservatives may win NY23; but I think the Virginia campaign provides a better roadmap for long term progress.

We have not seen former Governor Palin out and about for awhile. Indeed, the various bloggers @ Conservatives4Palin often complain that the McDonnell and Christie campaigns haven't demanded her to walk the length of VA or NJ with them.

And right now, I' ve seen no indication she's going to campaign this season. But is there some huge surprise brewing?

I recall that before the 2008 Republican National Convention she swooped into Ohio out of nowhere for her debut. 

I know she's a "hockey mom" and I also know one candidate associated with the 1980 Winter Olympics.

There's an fairly large airport just minutes from the Lake Placid Ice arena and the Hoffman campaign HQ. Could there be one more surprise left in the NY 23 race?   Could she just show up on Doug Hoffman's doorstep and alert the local media?

Sure would upstage Joe Biden

(Cross-posted)

I wish that I could write a paragraph that start “the problem with the health care bill is…” but there are so many problems with the health care bill that to single out just one is ridiculous. The bill is a monstrosity in the truest sense of the word – it is an excessively bad object of frightening size and complexity.

The size alone is enough to give pause. 1,990 pages of law that no representative (or representative’s staff) will read or understand in its entirety before (or after) it is voted on. I’m not going to argue that every bill should be read by every legislator before it is voted on. That seems unrealistic. But I’d like to know that it can be done and that the provisions of the bill can be understood both separately and when placed in their context. I think that some lawmakers will attempt to read and understand the bill with their staff, but undoubtedly they will come up with completely contradictory ideas of what is actually meant by the bill. The actual debate will be rushed (as it has been all year long) and a vote far to premature for the subject matter will be held. The only question mark over it passing the House is just how many Blue Dogs will actually stick to their positions.

Note to Blue Dogs: If you are going to claim to be fiscally conservative and socially liberal, then at some point you have to actually vote in a fiscally conservative manner. We (those of us citizens who actually are fiscally conservative and socially liberal) are getting sick of the charade.

The bill doesn’t (and can’t possibly) accomplish so many of the goals that it supporters claim that it does. Key example: Many supporters of this form of health care reform claim that a lot of the waste in the system is because insurance companies spend a lot of money lobbying the government that could be spent on health care (or reducing cost or whatever). Do they really think that by making the profits of those insurance companies more tied to government decisions that there will be less lobbying? That seems ridiculous on its face. If I ran an insurance company, then the more that my profits depended on government decisions the more money and effort I am going to spend on lobbying to make sure that I get the right contract or that lawmakers/bureaucrats make the decision in my favor. This isn’t that difficult of a concept: Big government leads to big lobbying. No matter what some people might argue big government doesn’t fight against big business – big government begets big business. Just ask the financial industry.

Another thing that I worry is the tax implications. Whether you “pay” for this (I put it in quotes because we should all recognize that, like social security and welfare, debt is what will really “pay” for the bill) with taxes on good health insurance plans or taxes on income, you are having some pretty bad outcomes. Tax good health insurance plans and companies have a disincentive to offer them – not only will the company have to pay (part of) the cost of the good health insurance plan, but they will have to pay the employee more to cover the cost of the extra tax the employee will have to pay (or the employee just functionally makes less money). Set a maximum level of health insurance that won’t get taxed and that is just where everyone is going to end up. There would be a disincentive to have better health care for everyone except for those at the very top who can afford it. And that won’t be enough to cover the costs of everyone else. Or just raise taxes on the highest earners and we are moving farther down a path that has, to this point, led to 57% of Americans paying 100% of the taxes. Seriously. A little over 43% of Americans pay zero federal income tax. Now, I don’t think that everyone should pay taxes. Some people can’t afford it plain and simple. They are impoverished and should be helped. But it is not true that 43% of Americans cannot afford to pay in to the system. Of course, if you don’t pay taxes, you don’t worry when taxes get raised. Especially if the raising of the taxes give you something. I know that our Country was founded on No Taxation Without Representation, but how long can we ignore the counter of that statement – that with representation comes the responsibility to put in to the system?

Am I arguing that nothing needs to be done with our heath care system? No. There clearly are problems with it that need to be solved. The employer based system needs to be replaced. Not with a public system, but with an individual based system.

Is it frightening where this particular bill leads us? Yes. Very much so.

Well, for everyone who ISN'T a left wing whack job, it sure sounds like one!

Of course, it start with the requiisite "teabagger" insult, but here's the rest.

...And a victory for an anti-reform teabagger just before the big health care votes will send exactly the wrong message to Democrats who are nervous about their own re-election....

Charlie Cook, one of the most respected political analysts in Washington, says that a Hoffman win would "shock Washington and force both parties to rethink their strategies."4  

It would dramatically strengthen the Sarah Palin wing of the Republican party. And as for the Democrats—remember how the teabaggers' town hall disruptions rattled conservative "Blue Dog" Democrats? Imagine how hard it'll be to pass progressive legislation if conservative Democrats spend the next year worrying that they may be unseated by people who think Medicare is socialism and President Obama isn't a U.S. citizen.

It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. But it is. Which is why Bill Clinton and others are working hard to raise the money Bill Owens needs to win. Local MoveOn members voted 77% to endorse Owens. But they need our help.

I think I've been inspired by this message, Time to send Hoffman more cash!

I'll be short and to the point.

Doug, the mission of getting the national conservative movement engaged is accomplished..

Stop cancelling local forums to do more national interviews. Right now the most important media people in your world are the anchors for the 5,6 and 11 pm news in Syracuse.

Make sure you have something useful to say about the arcane local issues. The "throw out the bums" voters are with you. Upstaters are very practical people though. They will not elect a Congressman who doesn't share their concerns over Thruway tolls, Indian land claims and the future of Ft. Drum.

Wear the white hat. Don't risk this by getting snarky.

And realize that Scozzafava and Owens have a hard core of loyalists up in the North Country. They think that's the whole 23rd District. So spend the time you need in the "South Country"....the counties along I-90 and I-481. (Oswego, Fulton, Madison and Oneida).That's 40% of the district and your opponents have no local roots there.

That's it. Now it's time to execute.

Newt Gingrich's latest charge against Doug Hoffman is ---egads--he doesn't live within the 23rd District.

It's about 10 minutes through thinly populated mountains from Hoffman's Lake Placid home (in the 20th District) to his Saranac Lake HQ.  It's not like he lives in another part of the state; it's just Essex County got bisected in the 2002 redistricting.

Why this is a bizarre charge for Gingrich to make is he himself ran in a district he didn't live in; and based on my knowledge of Georgia geography, was about an hour from where he lived when he filed for election.   

During the 1990s round of redistricting, Georgia picked up an additional seat as a result of the 1990 United States Census. However, the Democrat-controlled General Assembly dismantled Gingrich's old district, which stretched from the southern suburbs of Atlanta to the Alabama border. Gingrich's home in Carrollton was drawn into the Columbus-based 3rd District, represented by five-term Democrat Richard Ray.

At the same time, the Assembly created a new 6th District in Fulton and Cobb counties in the wealthy northern suburbs of Atlanta — an area Gingrich had never represented. However, Gingrich sold his home in Carrollton, moved to Marietta in the new 6th and won a very close Republican primary. The primary victory was tantamount to election in the new, heavily Republican district. Also, Ray narrowly lost to Republican state senator Mac Collins.

Evidently, Newt thought his continued service in Congress was more valuable than electing a Cobb County native to the House. The voters agreed, although I recall Newt's relocation was not met with universal approval from his new constituents.

If Newt has a credible excuse for his Beltway brain freeze, he's yet to provide it.  The fact creative cartography divided parts of the Adirondacks sure isn't one of them. 

Erick Erickson, who is admittedly the mastermind behind Doug-mania in the Rightosphere, has a rather disturbing post in RedState.

Two party officials tell POLITICO that the NRCC will continue to air TV ads propping up Scozzafava in the days leading up to the Nov. 3 contest and plans to keep up a near relentless barrage of press releases slamming Hoffman.

Here’s my favorite part, which is also the most insulting:

Asked why so many prominent Republicans had thrown their support to Hoffman, the official responded, “We’re dealing with data, not hopes and dreams

OK. I'm a data driven guy. Let's look at these numbers.

1. Let's assume the Kos poll is correct.   It shows Doug Hoffman in third place. It also shows Dede Scozzafava with the highest negatives in the race. And that if Hoffman wasn;t running, very few of his supporters would show any interest in backing Scozzafava. And, hmm what is the likely impact on such voters of running negatives on Hoffman?

Democrat candidate Bill Owens is sitting pretty;  by my estimates if he turns out the same Democratic House vote the losing candidate got in the 2006 midterm (which had turnout comparable to the 2009 20th CD special) he stands to win. Especially since the NRCC strategy will lead to less Republican turnout. Brilliant. 

2. With the exception of Newt Gingrich, most informed people realize Scozzafava is going to be one of, if not the most liberal members of the GOP caucus. And the one most likely to switch parties (more on the reasoning later).  On the other hand, Owens was a registered independent until recently and has focused much of his campaign on military issues.  So, it seems reasonable to think he's be a bit of a Blue Dog, especially compared to other northeastern Democrats.

True, Owens is a pro "public option" vote. But can we be sure Scozzafava isn't?. She hasn't committed, has she? (The Politico seems to think she's off the reservation already)

Query to the Beltway Brain Trust: How much is a RINO worth to us compared to a Blue Dog?  Maybe we'd be better off losing the bidding war and letting Nancy Pelosi and Steny Hoyer try and keep another wobbler in line.   

3. This seat is a rental. Not a purchase.  New York will certaintly lose a House Seat for '12. The Democrats are highly likely to control reapportionment (they control it now). The 23rd is the least Republican seat we still hold in NY; it has no major population centers, and will be held by a low seniority member.  The Democrats will make an upstate Republican walk the plank and the 23rd could easily be parcelled out between the Democrat held 20th (Saratoga), 24th (Utica) and 25th (Syracuse) districts.  

Which comes to Scozzafava switching parties. Anyone think she wouldn't flip parties to save her district and make a Republican colleague lose his seat in the re-map? Please.

4, Stop doing single-entry accounting, folks.  The DC Republicans are looking at the cost of holding one House seat.  And that's not insignificant. But they certainly don't have the cash-on-hand to fight in 40-60 seats next fall. That's going to take a monumental effort from the party's contrbutor base.

Hmm, guys, where do you plan to get that cash after you tell your most loyal contributors to stuff it? Last time I checked, K Street had sold out to Obama and Pelosi.  Unless you plan to borrow Ben Bernacke's printing press, appeasing the folks who write you checks might seem like a good idea.  

5, For the effect of electing a useless RINO while alienating the financial base of the party, please look up this definition. You genuises in DC are bright enough to figure this concept out, right?

When one considers the potential lost revenue for next year, this might turn out to be the most expensive House campaign in American history.

It seems the NRCC simply can't get out of its own way when it comes to upstate New York elections.  In 2006 they helped lose the 24th District, in 2008 we lost the 25th and 29th districts. And early this year their efforts were so counterproductive in the 20th District Jim Tedisco had to disavow them.

My suggestion to the DC Republicans. Quit while you're behind.  Punt on 4th down. Accept that the voters are going to do what they are going to do in the 23rd District. And hire someone with a clue before the '10 cycle gets going in earnest.

I link herein to Doug Hoffman's op-ed in the Sunday New York Post  explaining his reasoning behind taking on the Republican political establishment.  

Americans have had enough and are vocalizing their anger in town hall meetings and on the streets of Washington. They are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore!

That’s why I am running. I am one of them!

Freedom is what Americans want. Economic freedom to reap the rewards of the free enterprise system, personal freedom from the intrusion of big government in our lives, freedom from the nanny state that is being forced upon us.

I’m a lifelong Republican running as the nominee of the New York State Conservative Party. I didn’t leave the Republican Party, the party left me. The GOP bosses in New York and Washington felt the candidate needed to be as liberal as possible. They picked a professional politician, with a voting record more liberal than 46 Democrats in the New York state legislature. They threw principles out the window

I suppose the easiest thing for Doug Hoffman to have done after he fully considered what Dede Scozzafava would do in Congress was a) fall back on the thank you note he sent after the party bosses conclave, b) privately disparage her as unworthy, and  c) get his friends together on election day for a long golf outing.  That would be the easy thing. Putting a choice before the voters, well it's the hard thing to do.

Our nation is now facing a period in which hard things will be necessary to ensure the survival of the way of life we've taken for granted. The time to pick up the toolbox and roll up one's sleeve is now.

Doug Hoffman is working, not whining.  We need to take the initiative now before we squander our opportunities in the '10 midterms.