A Tale of Two Metropolitan Areas: Part Two

The Pittsburgh Metro Area

Allegheny County: Population (2000): 1,281,666, McCain 2008 Percentage: 41.6%

Allegheny County is the most populous county in Western Pennsylvania, containing the City of Pittsburgh and the majority of its suburbs.  Pittsburgh has roughly one-fourth of the county's population and because of it, Allegheny County is almost always Democratic.  McCain did slightly worse than Bush in 2004, but only by about one percentage point.  Pittsburgh has been unthinkingly Democratic since the Great Depression and nothing in the future looks to change that.

The longest developed and most densely populated corridor of the county is the area to the east of the city, and is mostly a Democratic area.  Penn Hills, the second largest municipality in Southwestern Pennsylvania, is nearly 2 to 1 Democratic.  Monroeville is a middle-class suburb that Obama narrowly won.  The most Republican part of this area is Plum Township, a partly rural area that gave McCain 56 percent of the vote.

To the direct south is the Monongahela Valley, perhaps the embodiment of the Rust Belt.  There are river communities that have less than half the residents they had fifty years ago.  The Mon Valley went in two different directions in the past election.  The municipalities with large African-American populations were among the places that moved towards Obama.  Places like Duquesne, McKeesport, Clairton, and Braddock only increased their heavy Democratic tilt.  But other municipalities went the other way.  Some of the greatest Republican increases occured in the Mon Valley.  McCain ran nearly nine points better than Bush did in 2004 in Port Vue and eight points better in Glassport.  There has been a noticable change among some in the Mon Valley.

West of the Mon Valley is the South Hills, Pittsburgh's southern suburbs.  These suburbs are on balance Republican, but with definite variations.  The suburbs adjoining to Pittsburgh, like Mt. Lebanon and Baldwin, are narrowly Democratic.  Mt. Lebanon is a distressing case for Republicans, as it is one of the richest suburbs in the area.  To the south, middle-class Bethel Park gave McCain about 55 percent of the vote.  Upper St. Clair, which is very affluent, is still strongly Republican, but did experience a bit of a decline since last election.  One success story was in Jefferson Hills, a middle-class suburb that experienced a four percent bump for McCain.

Continuing clockwise, the western suburbs are the least developed part of the county, containing solid middle-class suburbs in the shadows of Pittsburgh International Airport.  Like most of Pittsburgh's suburbs, they are marginally Republican.  The story here is how static the vote was in the area.  The largest suburbs, like Moon, Findlay, and North Fayette Townships were within a point of 2004 voting patterns.  McCain did show slight improvement in Robinson Township and had a strong increase in Kennedy Township, a first-tier suburb.

Finally, there is the large swath of land north of the Allegheny and Ohio Rivers.  There is a northwest quadrant composed of river towns and the millionaire colony in Sewickley Heights.  Sewickley Heights gave McCain 66 percent of the vote, a great total until you realize that Bush received 71 percent four years ago.  The river towns are now swing territory, which is a Republican accomplishment in itself.  They showed no real trend as compared to 2004.  A similar northeast quadrant is based around the baronial estates of Fox Chapel and other smaller communities.  Fox Chapel, the wealthiest community in Pennsylvania west of the Main Line, was home to the biggest Republican decline over the past four years.  There was a near eight point drop-off in four years.  This is in line with the general Republican decline with the wealthy.

Most of the population north of the rivers is part of the North Hills.  The first-tier suburbs of Ross and Shaler are slightly Republican and showed no change over four years.  The farther out, upper-middle class suburbs are more Republican.  For example, Pine and Marshall Townships are over 60 percent Republican, but were about three percent less Republican than 2004.  Here, we do see some slippage among the affluent like everywhere else in the country, but not as dramatic as the Philadelphia area.

Westmoreland County: Population (2000): 369,993, McCain 2008 Percentage: 57.6%

Westmoreland County is to the east of Allegheny County and has the most development of any county outside of Allegheny County.  The county is made up of middle-class suburbia, small towns, and poorer industrial and rural areas.  The county was once a Democratic county, but in the past decade it has become reliably Republican.

The key to this transformation is the development of Westmoreland County's suburbs.  The core of the county's population is now concentrated on the western tier of suburban townships; such as North Huntingdon Township, Penn Township, and Murrysville, and along the Route 30 corridor in Hempfield and Unity Townships.  These 5 municipalities, which are all more populous than the county seat of Greensburg, now comprise over 35 percent of the county's population and cast 40 percent of Westmoreland's votes.  And these votes are heavily Republican.  Combined, the Big 5 municipalities gave McCain 63.1 percent of the vote.  This is where the shift in Westmoreland County has occured.

However, Republican gains aren't confined to just the suburbs.  Even many of the towns in the county, which were reliably Democratic in the past, have swung towards the GOP.  Greensburg, a town of roughly 15,000 inhabitants, used to be solidly Democratic.  But McCain won Greensburg with 51.5 percent.  Jeannette, once of the center of the American glass industry, gave McCain 50.5 percent.  Latrobe gave 55.2 percent to McCain.  McCain won other towns such as Scottdale, Irwin, Youngwood, and Derry.  A generation ago, these towns were all Democratic.  There are towns with similar demographics in the Philadelphia area where McCain didn't get one-third of the vote.

Democrats are now limited to a few poor river towns.  Obama won only 12 of 65 municipalities, half of which have fewer than 1,000 residents.  Democrats have been reduced to such declining towns like neighboring Arnold and New Kensington, Vandergrift, and Monessen.  They have experienced significant population declines for decades.  In Westmoreland County, Republicans are the party of the future.

Butler County: Population (2000): 174,083, McCain 2008 Percentage: 62.9%

Butler County has long been Southwestern Pennsylvania's most Republican County.  It was the only one of these counties that Reagan ever won.  It has voted for the Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1964.  2008 was no exception.  Republican dominance here is near total; Obama won only 2 of the 57 municipalities in the county, both of which surround Slippery Rock University, a local college.

The southern tier of Butler County is the fastest growing part of the Pittsburgh area, and one of the fastest growing parts of the country.  These places are Pittsburgh's Sun Belt, as they resemble areas outside of Phoenix more than they do suburban Pittsburgh.  The linchpin here is Cranberry Township, a booming exurb of 27,000 that is fast becoming an edge city.  Cranberry cast 16 percent of Butler County's votes, and it went resoundingly for McCain, giving him 64 percent of the vote.  Adams Township to the east is growing even faster than Cranberry, nearly doubling its population in the past decade.  Adams Township gave McCain a hair under 70 percent of the vote.  These two upper-middle class suburbs are still firmly Republican.

The second population center of the county is the county seat, Butler, and the nearby townships.  Butler is strikingly similar to Greensburg due to a near identical population and similar demographics.  The story in Butler is the same as in Greensburg.  McCain earned 49.5 percent of the vote, enough to best Obama's 48.0 percent.  The surrounding townships are about 60-40 Republican, not quite as Republican as the southern tier, but still strongly conservative.

The rest of the county resembles a moderately prosperous farm county in Indiana.  This is the flattest part of Southwestern Pennsylvania, and its agriculture was traditonally better than other counties, avoiding the rural poverty that marks the surrounding counties.  These farm townships have been Republican since the beginning of the Republican Party and 150 years has not weakened this connection.  There are some rural townships where McCain got over 70 percent of the vote.  Less than a handful of townships gave McCain less than 60 percent.

Washington County: Population (2000): 202,897, McCain 2008 Percentage: 51.5%

Washington County, once a mostly Democratic County, has now become a swing county.  Of the 66 municipalities in the county, 34 were won by McCain and 32 were won by Obama.  For many years, the bulk of Washington County's population was concentrated in the Mon Valley.  Industrial towns like Monongahela, Donora, and Charleroi were the pillars upon which Washington County's strength was built upon.  These areas were traditionally heavily unionized, and therefore Democratic.  Even today, these areas still are mostly Democratic, though not to the same extent as 50 years ago.  McCain won 31 percent in Donora, 36 percent in college town California, 42 percent in Charleroi, and 44 percent in Monongahela.  This is still a strong Democratic area.

In past years, this would have been enough for Obama to win the county.  However, Washington County has changed over the years.  Suburban development has come to the county.  The main development has been Peters Township.  Peters Township could be viewed as the Cranberry of the South Hills.  Due to explosive growth, Peters Township now casts 12 percent of Washington County's votes.  And these are Republican votes, as McCain won 67 percent of the votes here.

The new center of population in Washington County is the 1-79 corridor centered on the towns of Canonsburg and Washington.  Canonsburg, a traditional industrial center, is still marginally Democratic, though much less so than before.  Washington, the county seat, is much more Democratic, giving McCain only 34 percent.  What makes this odd is that it is another copy of Greensburg and Butler, but it is much more Democratic.  The surrounding areas, parts of the Canon-MacMillan, Trinity, and Chartiers-Houston School Districts, are primarily suburban.  This is the swing area of the county and it was indeed close in 2008.  McCain was able to win Cecil, Chartiers, North Strabane, and South Strabane Townships while Obama won Canton Township and Houston.  The small McCain margin here was where he won the county.

Beaver County: Population (2000): 181,412, McCain 2008 Percentage: 50.5%

Beaver County used to be the sort of place that was the base of the Democratic Party.  The county was settled by immigrants who flocked to the expanding mills and factories that sprung up on the banks of the Ohio and Beaver Rivers.  Once unionization came into effect in the 1930s, the county solidified as staunchly Democratic.  This was a county that gave Mondale and Dukakis over 60 percent of the vote.

Starting about ten years ago, there has been a movement towards the Republican Party.  The presidential nominee's performance has improved each of the last three elections, going from Bush's 44.1 percent in 2000 to 48.4 percent for Bush in 2004 to the breakthrough in this election where McCain received 50.5 percent.  Considering the national decline of the Republican Party, this has been a truly countercyclical county.

This transition could only have occured with the stark depopulation of the Democratic vote centers.  Consider some of Obama's best municipalities in the county:

• Aliquippa: Obama %: 75.3%, 1940 Population: 27,023, 2000 Population: 11,734
• Ambridge: Obama %: 60.7%, 1940 Population: 18,968, 2000 Population: 7,769
• Beaver Falls: Obama %: 62.6%, 1940 Population: 17,098, 2000 Population: 9,920
• New Brighton: Obama % 55.3%, 1940 Population: 9,630, 2000 Population: 6,641

The legs of Democratic support have been kicked out from under due to the exodus from the river towns.

But there has been a shift among those who have remained in the county.  Such old industrial towns as county seat Beaver, Industry (the name says it all), and Big Beaver were won by McCain.  Most of the population is now centered in townships away from the rivers.  In townships like Hopewell, Center, Chippewa, and Economy borough, Republican candidates win, though not by overwhelming margins.  Population trends favor Republicans becasue all of the growing areas are conservative.

In the Pittsburgh Metro area, we do see an overall swing towards the Republican Party.  There are two caveats to this proclamation.  One, Metro Pittsburgh has half the population of the Pennsylvania part of Metro Philadelphia.  Secondly, there is a Republican decline among the affluent here, though less than other areas of the country.  Western Pennsylvania has been a bright for Republicans, but it can't change Pennsylvania's political direction without future changes.