The Big Ten Strategy

Promoted. Post your general election strategery in the comments. -Patrick

Now that the general election matchup has been set, it is worth taking a look at what the candidates can do to win the election.  In the case of Obama, his best strategy would be to try and flip a few Mountain West states like Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico.  But of course, I'm not writing this to help Obama!  When I was looking for a strategy for McCain to win this fall, the best opportunites for pickups for him were in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.  Other surrounding states like Ohio, Iowa, and Missouri were closely held by Bush in 2004.  These states of the industrial Midwest were all within 5 or 6 points last election and constitute a heavy portion of the swing electoral votes.  All of these states, with the exception of Missouri, have large state universities that are part of the Big Ten athletic conference.  Therefore, I have titled the strategy, "The Big Ten Strategy".

Most of the Big Ten states are competitive this election season.  The two exceptions are Illinois (Obama's homestate and safely Democratic no matter which candidate they nominated) and Indiana (perhaps the most consistently Republican state since the formation of the party in the 1850s).  But consider how close the rest of the states have been in recent Presidential elections:

Pennsylvania: Gore 50.6% to Bush 46.4% in 2000, a 4.2 point difference; Kerry 50.9% to Bush 48.4% in 2004, a 2.5 point difference.

Ohio: Bush 50.0% Gore 46.5%, 3.5 point difference; Bush 50.8% Kerry 48.7%, 2.1 point difference.

Michigan: Gore 51.3% Bush 46.1%, 5.2 point difference; Kerry 51.2% Bush 47.8%, 3.4 point difference.

Wisconsin: Gore 47.8% Bush 47.6%, 5700 vote margin; Kerry 49.7% Bush 49.3%, 11,400 vote margin.

Iowa: Gore 48.5% Bush 48.2%, 4200 vote margin; Bush 49.9% Kerry 49.2%, 10,700 vote margin.

Minnesota: Gore 47.9% Bush 45.5%, 2.4 point difference; Kerry 51.1% Bush 47.6%, 3.5 point difference.

And while Missouri is not a Big Ten state, it is similar enough to its neighbors to be included:

Missouri: Bush 50.2% Gore 47.1%, 3.1 point difference; Bush 53.3% Kerry 46.1%, 7.2 point difference.

A few percentage points here or there, and any of these states could swing either way.  Combined, these states have 96 electoral votes.  This is more than enough to be the balance that decides the election.

Soon, I will begin looking at these seven states in depth.  The first will be Pennsylvania, my home state.