The Big Ten Strategy: Michigan

I was planning to do an analysis on Ohio, but after looking at Matt Hurley's post on Ohio, I realized that I couldn't really do any better than he did.  So I decided to move on and move next towards doing Michigan.

Michigan has been a state that has been tantalizing for Republicans in the past decade, but always out of reach.  In 2000, Al Gore won the state 51.3% to Bush's 46.1%.  Four years later, Bush made up a little ground, but he still trailed John Kerry by 3.5 points.  Pennsylvania and Michigan have been voting in much the same way during the last two presidential elections, with Michigan about a point more Democratic.

In the state, Michigan has been a Democratic province this decade.  Jennifer Granholm took office in 2002, and won reelection easily in 2006.  Fortunately for Republicans, Granholm's popularity has suffered due to the lackluster performance of the Michigan economy.  It's not a good sign for your political future when you are said to be presiding over a "one state recession".  Perhaps more than any other major state, in recent years Michigan has become fed up with a Democratic state government.  Michiganders are ready for change, but the change they want may be in McCain's favor, not Obama's.

The Democratic base in Michigan is in Wayne and Washtenaw Counties.  Wayne County is Detroit and some surrounding communities.  Detroit is the blackest major city in the country and accordingly, the most Democratic.  You can count on Obama running up a large margin in Wayne County.  Turnout increased by 12.5% in 2004 even as the county's population continued to decline.  The idea that Obama will be able to harness a huge spike in black turnout is shortsighted because the Kerry campaign in 2004 did a very good job of turning out inner-city voters.  It is a similar story in Washtenaw County.  Ann Arbor is the county seat, which of course contains the University of Michigan.  Obama inspires great enthusiasm among university students and faculty; but once again, the idea of a major turnout spike seems misleading.  Washtenaw County experienced a massive 19.5% turnout increase in 2004.  This was further exacerbated by those who voted for Nader in 2000 (over 6% in the county) returning to the Democratic fold.  While Bush generally performed slightly better in Michigan in 2004, Kerry came out of Washtenaw County with a margin of 48,500 votes, an increase of over 14,000 votes from 2004.  While Ann Arbor and the surrounding area is growing, the huge Democratic increase in 2004 would be almost impossible to repeat.

The key to any statewide political campaign in Michigan for the past four decades has been the two large suburban counties to the north of Detroit, Oakland and Macomb Counties.  These two counties together cast more votes than Wayne County, representing over 20% of the state's voters.  Macomb County, and the city of Warren in particular, was the birthplace of the Reagan Democrat.  Macomb voted for Gore in 2000 by 2.5 points and for Bush in 2004 by 1.5 points.  Oakland County is the home of the Detroit Pistons and where Mitt Romney grew up.  Gore won by slightly over 1 point while Kerry won by 4 tenths of a point.  Oakland County is slightly wealthier and slightly more white-collar than Macomb County, but they are generally similar counties.  Detroit may have the most marginal suburbs of any American city. 

One advantage McCain might have in these counties is the massive ineptitude of Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick.  Republicans have suffered in many suburban communities in the past twenty years, and I think that a good part of this is due to positive images of big city Democratic mayors.  The Chicago and Philadelphia suburbs used to be solidly Republican.  In the 90s, popular moderate Democratic mayors like the younger Richard Daley and Ed Rendell made the Democratic Party more amenable to suburban swing voters by governing well (especially considering they are Democrats).  This never happened in Detroit suburbs because Detroit mayors have been especially bad.  The race-baiting Coleman Young encouraged Detroit criminals to go north of 8 Mile Road.  The self-styled "Hip-hop mayor", Kilpatrick has continued running Detroit into the ground while becoming a national embarrassment.  The two most visible public officials in the state, the Governor and Mayor of Detroit, are deeply unpopular Democrats.  This could be very beneficial in winning over moderate suburbanites.

The secondary Democratic stronghold in the state is the industrial complex consisting of the cities of Flint, Saginaw, and Bay City.  These cities, along with Gary, Indiana, northeastern Ohio, and the river valleys surrounding Pittsburgh, are the most prominent embodiments of the Rust Belt.  The counties here are Genessee, Saginaw, and Bay Counties.  Genessee County, in which Flint is located, voted for Kerry over Bush by about 20 points.  This figure represented progress for Bush, as he improved his standing by 7 points and cut 9,000 votes from the Democratic margin.  Turnout increased 12.5% even as population continued to decline.  It is likely that the Bush campaign had very skilled people on the ground.  Saginaw County went from favoring Gore by over 10 points to going for Kerry by only 7.5 points.  Due to population decline, turnout was up only 9.7%.  Bay County experienced a similar small turnout increase of 10.5% as Bush bettered his 2000 result by 2 points.

The upshot in these counties is that they have been trending Republican in this decade.  These are precisely the people Barack Obama had in mind when he made his "bitter" comments.  While there was no real Michigan primary to speak of, I would guess that Hillary Clinton would have cleaned up in these areas.  Obama has been having difficulty gaining the support of the white working class and this could be a prime McCain target.

The Republican base in Michigan is the Grand Rapids area.  The two main counties in the area are Kent County (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa County.  Kent County casts the fourth most votes in the state and running up a sizable margin is essential for Republican candidates.  Unfortunately for Bush, he suffered a three point reversal, which was particularly pronounced in the city of Grand Rapids.  It took a 16.3% turnout increase for Bush to barely increase his vote margin.  If McCain wants to win in November, he must run better here, especially in Grand Rapids itself.  Ottawa is the best Republican county in the state in terms of voting margins.  It provided Bush with 56,500 vote margin last election.  Bush's share of the vote remained static in 2004, though he won by a massive 44 points.  A 16.3% increase in turnout ensured that Bush added 7,000 votes to his margin between 2000 and 2004.  Both counties are the largest center of Dutch people in the country.  In particular, the Dutch Reformed tradition is vital in these places, drawing the congregants to conservatism.  If McCain can't rally the conservative base, he could really suffer in this area.

Finally, the Upper Peninsula should also be an area to target.  All together, the Upper Peninsula cast over 150,000 votes in 2004.  This is more than Ingham County, which contains Lansing.  Turnout was up only 9.5% in 2004, but Bush did boost his performance in most places.  The populated areas of the UP were traditionally tied to logging and industry.  The UP was Democratic for a long time, but as industry has declined and the Democrats have moved to the left, the UP is now a prime area for Republicans to make gains.  The UP is very isolated from the rest of Michigan, let alone the rest of the country.  It would be a wise investment for McCain to invest in TV ads that reach the UP.

Ultimately, Michigan could be one of McCain's best states this election.  The current political environment is more receptive to Republicans than most states are right now.  There are many white working class voters that could fall into McCain's lap if he plays his cards right.  For McCain, it may be more difficult getting volunteers in Grand Rapids than in picking off discontented blue-collar Democrats in Flint.