The Big Ten Strategy: Minnesota

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

By virtue of voting for native son Walter Mondale in 1984, Minnesota has the longest streak of voting Democratic in presidential elections.  It last voted for a Republican in 1972, when George McGovern was too extreme for this historically liberal state.  Despite this, Minnesota is not the Massachusetts of the Midwest.  Instead, it is now what Illinois once was; a key Midwestern state dominated by a big city where the suburbs make the difference.  In 2000, Bush got within two points of winning the state, assisted by a strong Nader vote (5.25%).  Four years later, Bush was able to increase his percentage of the vote by two points.  But with liberals wary of voting for Nader again, John Kerry was also able to increase the Democratic share of the vote by over three points.  Bush fell 3.5 points short of victory.

In this election cycle, there are two wild cards associated with Minnesota.  The first of which is the Republican National Convention being held in St. Paul.  The GOP has held its last two conventions deep in the heart of Blue America, Philadelphia and New York.  While the city of St. Paul is Democratic, there could be greater potential for a positive convention changing the mind of some locals.  If you live in the Twin Cities, you will have a constant media drumbeat about the convention.  This is a major form of political advertising, which could benefit Republicans.

The other wild card is a potential wild card.  Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty is one of the favorites to be named McCain's Vice President.  In fact, if I was a betting man, Pawlenty would be the guy who I would have money on.  He has been out in front in supporting McCain in the primaries (McCain really values loyalty).  He managed to survive the Democratic tidal wave in 2006, which indicates that he is generally popular with Minnesotans.  Pawlenty represents the "highest floor, lowest ceiling" VP pick.  No one in the entire country will reconsider their support for McCain if he picks Pawlenty.  He is generally conservative enough to prevent a base revolt while not threatening to moderates and independents.  But he seems a bit dull and likely will not add much excitement to the ticket.  Honestly, I don't think his presence on the ticket would do much in Minnesota.  Maybe it would represent a one point swing in the state.  If the contest was close enough, it could make the difference, but Pawlenty's inclusion on the ticket won't have much political impact, even in Minnesota.

Minnesota has two large cities, but together they make one large metropolitan area.  Minneapolis and St. Paul are typical Northern large cities, which is to say they are reliably Democratic.  Both Hennepin and Ramsey Counties give roughly 60% of the vote to Democrats in recent years in Presidential elections.  These totals are not actually too daunting compared to many other major cities.  The problem in Minnesota is that there is only one other significant population center in the state.  Over thirty percent of the state lives in these two counties.  What would be a very promising situation in other states is compromised by the bone chilling Minnesota winters.  This is the American state which is closest to Canadian political realties.

The most reliable Republican base in the state is in the counties surrounding the Twin Cities.  The three largest suburban counties, Dakota, Anoka, and Washington Counties gave Bush an approximate five point margin.  This is certainly better than the major suburbs surrounding many other cities in the country, but is not enough for Republican victory.  Any Republican hoping to wipe out the Twin Cities margins needs to do better in these counties.  Republicans have done better in other suburban counties like Carver, Scott, Wright, and Sherburne Counties.  Bush drew in an average of 60% in these four counties.  The problem is that these counties have less voters than St. Paul alone.  Together, these seven counties provided Bush with an approximate 67,000 vote margin, not nearly enough to make up the Twin Cities 200,000+ vote margin.

The only other sizable population center in the state is on the Iron Range in Northern Minnesota.  Centered on Duluth, this area has been a left-wing stronghold for about a century.  Duluth had one of the most radical political histories, giving some of the best support to socialist movements.  The result of this is that Duluth is even more Democratic than the Twin Cities.  St. Louis County, which contains Duluth and its surroundings, voted for Kerry by 32 points in 2004, providing a margin of nearly 38,000 votes for Kerry.  Smaller surrounding counties that focus on iron mining also benefited Kerry, albeit with smaller margins.  If I were the McCain team, I would definitely advertise heavily in the Duluth market.  I would also try to make some appearences in the Iron Range.  The Congressman for this entire area is James Oberstar.  Oberstar's economic beliefs aren't far short of socialistic, but he is pro-life and pro-gun.  I'm sure there are many typical "bitter" voters on the Iron Range, and I think some of them could be picked off.

All of the above could still produce a winning situation if the rural areas made up for the margins in the cities.  With the remaining third or so of the population, a strong rural Republican showing could win the state.  However, Republicans aren't that strong in rural Minnesota.  While Republicans do carry most of the rural counties, they do not win them by large margins.  There were only 10 counties in the entire state that Bush won with over 60% of the vote.  Three were in the Twin City suburbs, so only seven rural counties produced a large Republican margin.  This simply isn't good enough.  The McCain team needs to find a way to win over rural voters in Minnesota.

Minnesota is not a crucial state for Republicans to win.  The GOP has won the White House many times without winning the Gopher State.  However, winning it would really make it difficult for Obama to win.  With Minnesota's strong tradition of politcal liberalism, an Obama win would be expected.  But with the GOP Convention in the state and a potential VP in the Governor's House, Minnesota will be fiercely competed for by McCain.  To win, he will need help in the suburbs, on the Iron Range, and in the country.