The Big Ten Strategy: Missouri

The final state of the Big Ten Strategy is not strictly part of the Big Ten--the University of Missouri is a member of the Big 12 athletic conference.  However, the state of Missouri is politically much more similar to the states of the Great Lakes than to the states of the Great Plains.  Missouri is vital not only for its 11 electoral votes, but because it is the most typical state in the entire country.  Besides its central location along the Mississippi River, consider what else makes it so typical:

• Has voted for the winner in the Presidential election twenty-four out of the last twenty-five times (Adlai Stevenson in 1956 is the exception).
• Racially average; black population is 12%, same as the national average.  There are less Hispanics than average, though.
• Culturally diverse; there is an eastern industrial city (St. Louis), the southern part of the state is culturally southern, typical blend of urban, suburban, and rural.
• Population density is closest to the national average of any state.
• Center of the national population is located in Osage County, near the center of the state.

Missouri was one of George W. Bush's best success stories in 2000 and 2004.  Missouri, a state that voted for Bill Clinton twice, voted for Bush by 3.4 points.  In 2004, Missouri went from swing state to rout when Bush won the state by 7.2 points.  That's a greater margin than New Jersey gave John Kerry.  Kerry was limited to a mere four counties in the entire state.

However, 2006 demonstrated once again how Missouri was a bellweather state.  Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Jim Talent in the race for US Senate.  This race, along with the Webb-Allen race, flipped control of the Senate to the Democrats.  The map of which counties that McCaskill won shows the roadmap for victory for Democrats.  It will be up to Republicans to prevent a repeat of 2006.

The first building block for a McCaskill victory was in St. Louis County, the suburban county surrounding St. Louis City.  St. Louis County was one of the four counties that didn't vote for Bush in 2004, so it was no surprise that Talent lost the county.  It was the margin by which he lost that was the problem.  Bush lost St. Louis County by a margin of about 50,000 votes.  Talent lost the county by nearly the exact same margin.  The problem for Talent was that turnout was lower in 2006 than in 2004, a Presidential election year.  Bush lost the county by 9.2 points.  Talent lost the county by over 12 points.  St. Louis County casts about 20% of the state's votes, so a three percent decline is crucial.

There was also weakness in Kansas City and the surrounding counties.  In Jackson County, holding Kansas City and its immediate suburbs, the story is much the same as in St. Louis County; Bush and Talent lost by a similar vote total, but Talent lost by the same vote margin with less turnout.  Bush lost Jackson County by 16.8 points, Talent by 27 points.  Surrounding counties with less population like Clay County and Platte County also experienced a net Democratic gain in 2006.

McCaskill won a line of counties extending southwest of St. Louis that aren't highly populated, but together made a large difference.  To give an example, Oregon County, on the Arkansas border, voted for Bush by over 20 points in 2004.  It produced a 950 vote margin in a small county.  In 2006, McCaskill won the county by 30 votes, for a narrow win of less than one percent.  This type of dramatic reversal, spread across many counties with more population, shows how Republicans lost their grip on Missouri in just two years.

If McCain loses Missouri, then the election is over.  If he can't win a state that Bush won by over 7 points, then you can sure count on Ohio being gone.  Missouri will be the most McCain friendly of the states that I have profiled so far.  Winning Missouri is more a matter of defending previously won turf than overturning Democratic strongholds.