The Big Ten Strategy: Pennsylvania

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

In the last two Presidential election cycles, Pennsylvania has been one of the most contested states.  In 2000, George W. Bush visited Pennsylvania more than any other state.  In 2004, Pennsylvania was once again a key target state.  Unfortunately for Bush, Pennsylvania did not go his way in either election.  In 2000, Al Gore beat Bush by a margin of 52% to 47.5%.  Bush got his share of the vote up to 48% in 2004, but John Kerry edged him out by two and a half percentage points.

Despite being a swing state, Pennsylvania is not similar to the rest of the nation.  Pennsylvania is the second oldest state in the nation, behind retirement haven Florida.  In some ways Pennsyvania is even older than Florida because Florida also attracts young people, whereas young people flee Pennsylvania in droves.  Pennsylvania has had some of the lowest population growth in the nation, with many areas losing population.  And despite being a northeastern state, Pennsylvania has the highest per-capita membership in the NRA in the country.

For the purpose of predicting the results of the fall election, we are lucky that Pennsylvania had a highly contested Democratic Primary on April 22.  Without a doubt Hillary Clinton would have been a stronger general election candidate for the Democrats in Pennsylvania than Barack Obama will be.  She won the primary by 9.2 percentage points.  More impressively, Clinton won 60 of Pennsylvania's 67 counties.

If you are John McCain, what should your strategy be in Pennsylvania?  There are a few areas that his campaign needs to target.

The Philadelphia suburbs

The best explanation for why Bush lost Pennsylvania in 2000 and 2004 is because he underperformed in the Philadelphia suburbs.  Outside of Philadelphia and Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), the four suburban Philadelphia counties are the four counties with the most voters in the state.  In 2004, the least populated of the counties, Chester County, voted for Bush by a margin of 52% to 47.5%.  The other three counties went for Kerry.  The most populous of these, Montgomery County, gave Bush only 44%.  The second most populous, Bucks County, gave Bush 48%.  And in Delaware County, the closest to the City of Philadelphia, Bush received a paltry 42%.  These four counties amounted to 1.25 million votes.  Bush came out of these four counties with an approximate deficit of 87,000 votes.  He only lost the state by 150,000 votes.  If McCain just ran even in these counties, counties with Republican registration advantages no less, he would make up over half of Bush's 2004 deficit.

In the Democratic primary, the idea that all of the suburban counties vote the same was disproved.  Delaware and Chester Counties were kind to Obama, giving him 56% and 55% of the vote respectively.  It was nearly dead even in Montgomery County, as Obama narrowly lost with 49% of the vote.  But in Bucks County, Obama received only 37% of the vote.  I would believe that Obama will be stronger than Kerry was in Delaware and Chester Counties, similar in Montgomery County, and at a disadvantage in Bucks County.  McCain's moderate leanings could pay dividends in these counties, as many registered Republicans refused to vote for Bush.  McCain needs to be actively campaigning in the Philadelphia area, particularly in Bucks County.

Northeastern PA

Bush improved his performance in the Scranton area from 2000 to 2004, but still lost the area by a margin of 20,000 votes.  If McCain wants to win Pennsylvania, he needs to run at least even in Luzerne County (Scranton) and Lackawanna County (Wilkes-Barre), if not win them.  Fortunately for McCain, the Scranton area was a real problem area for Obama in the primary.  Obama got 25% in Luzerne County and 26% in Lackawanna County.  The Scranton area is one of the premier conservative Democrat areas in America.  It may be a tall task for them to warm to Obama.

Southwestern PA

For McCain, the real opportunity could be in Southwestern Pennsylvania.  Consider how close a series of counties in Southwestern Pennsylvania were in 2004 and how poory Obama fared in them in the primary:

Mercer County: Bush 51.0% Kerry 48.2%, Clinton 69% Obama 31%

Beaver County: Kerry 51.1% Bush 48.4%, Clinton 70% Obama 30%

Washington County: Kerry 50.1% Bush 49.6%, Clinton 71% Obama 29%

Cambria County: Bush 50.8% Kerry 48.7%, Clinton 72% Obama 28%

Lawrence County: Bush 50.5% Kerry 49.2%, Clinton 74% Obama 26%

Greene County: Bush 50.0% Kerry 49.3%, Clinton 75% Obama 25%

Fayette County: Kerry 53.2% Bush 45.8%, Clinton 79% Obama 21%

When voters select a candidate by a three to one margin, when the two candidates have no real policy disagreements, this has to be interpreted as a rejection of the loser.  I believe that all seven of the above counties would vote against Obama.  These seven counties casted a total of 409,000 votes in 2004.  Even a five point swing in these counties, which would still have Obama winning Fayette County, would represent a swing of 20,000 votes.  A ten point swing, which for example would have McCain winning Washington County 55% to 45%, would represent 40,000 votes.  By themselves, these counties cannot overturn Democratic control of Pennsylvania.  But ripping off nearly a third of what would need to be made up in such a small space would allow McCain to really have a shot in Pennsylvania.

All of these counties except Cambria County are part of the Pittsburgh media market.  I live in suburban Pittsburgh and I am encouraged to see that in the past month I have seen a plethora of McCain ads and no Obama ads.  Perhaps someone in the McCain campaign understands these figures and realizes that targeting the area surrounding Pittsburgh is vital towards winning the White House.  There is the potential for Western Pennsylvania to be among the best swing areas in the entire country for McCain.

There are other important areas for McCain to target, like the Pittsburgh suburbs, the Lehigh Valley, and the Erie area.  It is also important to get greater margins in the wide swaths of rural Pennsylvania.  But these three areas represent McCain's best chance to take Pennsylvania in the fall.  A Democrat has to win Pennsylvania to win the White House.  Democrats have lost the presidency while holding Pennsylvania; it's near impossible to think they can survive the defection of Pennsylvania to the Republican column.