The Big Ten Strategy: Wisconsin

Promoted and bumped. -Patrick

Wisconsin has been a state that has been a near tie in the past two Presidential elections.  In 2000, Al Gore beat George W. Bush by the very slim margin of 5,708 votes, a difference of 0.22 percentage points.  2004 was a near replay of 2000, as John Kerry beat Bush by a similar margin of 11,384 votes, a 0.38 percentage point difference.  Consiering these totals, it would be ludicrous for either McCain or Obama to assume Wisconsin will be in their pile.

What are McCain's keys to victory in Wisconsin?  First, he has to minimize the damage that Obama could do in Milwaukee and Madison.  In 2004, Bush came out of Milwaukee County with a 117,000 vote deficit.  It is likely that McCain will run no better or no worse than Bush.  With a declining population, Milwaukee can't turn out that many more new voters than other places in Wisconsin.

The same is not true in Dane County.  Dane County is home to Madison and its surroundings.  Home of the University of Wisonsin and the state capitol, Madison has become one of the premier liberal bastions in America.  Obama has shown his greatest strength in university towns and state capitals.  Madison is both of these things and could be one of Obama's best locations in the country.  More troubling for Republicans, Madison is one of the few left-wing hotbeds that is gaining in population.  It's population has grown by 7 percent in the first 6 years of this decade.  2004 represented a huge step forward in turnout in Madison, as Kerry racked up a 90,000+ vote margin, nearly as much as Milwaukee.  It will be hard to have the same type of turnout boost, but above average population growth makes a turnout surge possible.

The Republican sweet spot is in the Milwaukee suburbs.  Milwaukee has some of the most Republican suburbs in the nation.  The keystone of the suburban counties is Waukesha County.  Bush won Waukesha by over 35 points, representing a margin of 81,300 votes.  This in itself makes up a large part of the above two counties Democratic margins.  Other suburban counties like Washington County and Ozaukee County gave similar percentages to Bush.  These counties are enough to make up for Milwaukee.

A Republican success story in recent years has been the success in the eastern part of the state north of Milwaukee.  Industrial towns like Racine, Sheboygan, and Green Bay have been trending Republican.  Brown County, home of Green Bay, has seen a solid working class locale go for Republicans in increasing numbers.  Bush won Brown county by 10 points, or 12,000 some votes.  Similar percentages are found throughout the rest of the eastern counties.

When you add Wisconsin's mostly Republican rural population to the totals, it would appear Wisconsin should be a Republican state.  So why have Democrats won the state for the past twenty years?  Because of the Republican deficit in Mississippi River towns.  For example, La Crosse County, the largest of these counties, had Kerry win by 8 points.  The second largest county, Eau Claire County, had Kerry win by ten points.  Viewed individually, these counties aren't gamechangers.  But when you factor in roughly 10-12 counties in Western Wisonsin that voted this way, that creates a decent sized hole for Republicans.  These are generally blue-collar communities that may not go for Obama's upper class liberalism, but have not bought into what Republicans have been selling in recent years.  If McCain is to win in November, he has to reverse the margins in these counties.  This area tends to be overlooked, but it needs to be his first priority in the state.