The Implications of the Specter Defection

I can't really express much outrage over Sen. Arlen Specter's decision to change his party affiliation from Republican to Democrat.  He grew up as a Democrat, but became a Republican in the mid-1960s to run for Philadelphia District Attorney.  Specter is the archtype of the career politician.  For better or for worse, he sticks his finger in the air and determines his beliefs on that basis.  So I really don't care about the whole psychological drama of what Arlen Specter is thinking any given moment, because he is usually reacting, not thinking (this can be for good or for bad, by the way).

What I care more about is what this means.  It's certainly not everyday that a United States Senator changes their party.  It is big news when it occurs, and deservedly so.  You expect a senator to be among the strongest partisans in the country.  If that's not the case, we should examine what this means.

What I am most interested in is whether Specter's ideological orientation will change.  I don't think he has any real ideological beliefs, but it should be worth watching if he stays in the middle like he was as a Republican, or he will pull a Jim Jeffords, going from a moderate to a down the line liberal.  If he stays the same, the change is pretty meaningless.  If he shifts left, then it is a real loss for conservatives.

Of course, this clears the way for Democrats to have a Parliamentary style power.  If they get 60 votes to invoke cloture (Franken will be a Senator soon), then there will be no real check on whatever Democrats want to do.  There hasn't been this sort of undivided control since the Great Society Congress in 1965-66.  We could expect the modern equivalent of the passage of Great Society legislation.

This does have real significance because it speaks to a concern about the Republican Party in 2009: How can it have any reach beyond the conservative base?  I'm a conservative.  I don't need to be convinced to vote Republican.  But I realize that I am not like most people.  The majority of Americans will consider voting for both parties to some degree.  In the past 4-5 years, the persuadable majority have been persuaded to stay away from Republicans in masse.  I think the reason for this is the failure of the conservative movement under the Bush Presidency.  It may take us a while to get beyond what Jon Henke quite accurately termed a movement failure.