Debate Hopes and Fears

Obama definitely has the advantage going into the first debate. He's ahead in the polls, and the financial meltdown has been strangling the McCain campaign to the floor.

Since Obama is considered weak on foreign policy, he only has to give some smart, poll tested answers that he's spent the last the three days memorizing and it will be declared that he has exceed expectations.

If Obama beats McCain in the debate, McCain is toast. 

If Obama and McCain both perform well, then Obama benefits from not looking clueless. 

If Obama and McCain both perform badly, then the race continues unchanged, with Obama ahead by a small margin.

If McCain beats Obama, he still has a chance.

So as you can see here, the outcome of the debate is more depenent on what Obama does than what McCain does. Assuming Obama doesn't screw up somehow (a big assumption) he will come out on top. The only other way he can lose the debate is if McCain knocks him off balance with a sharp attack of his own.

And of course, if McCain says anything that could be interpreted as a Gerald Ford moment we can kiss this election goodbye.