Defeatism

Nearly conservative I've read says that this election, three weeks away, is over.

I'm pretty surprised considering that I'm usually the more pessimistic one. Just last month we thought this election was in the bag and now we're saying its over? The poll numbers, while bad, generally aren't in double-digit territory. What has happened is that a very small and impressionable portion of the population (say 10%) has changed their mind, not because of anything Obama or McCain have done but rather because the economic death spiral causes them to want Democrats the same a way a terrorist attack would make them want Republicans. If some calm is restored then people will be able to think more rationally about the situation.

Everybody is also trashing the McCain campaign as no better than Bush in 1992 or Dole in 1996, the last two Republican defeats. But at this time in 1992 Bush was down 13 points while he only lost by 5.5. Dole was down twelve to twenty-two points in the same time period in 1996 (with the Gallup tracking poll showing a 16 point gap on election day). He lost by 8.5. The point is that even those awful campaigns managed to dig into sizable Democrat leads under unfavorable circumstances. I think it's safe to say that this election has been closer than the last two in terms of polling. Throw the Bradley effect in there and the race may not be as lopsided as it seems.

We shouldn't say its over until its over.