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What happened: Election edition
Facts did not matter in this election. This election was decided based on how much free stuff the candidates promised to hand out, and we just couldn't compete with Prince Barack.
But I really don't think that we lost as badly as everyone wants to portray it. Obama's edge in the popular vote is going to be less than 7%. Considering that we have been through four years where every possible bad thing that could happen happened--natural disasters, botched Social Security reform, highest gas prices ever, botched immigration reform, costly wars, recession, the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, Republican scandals, the most unpopular Presidential term in U.S. history, the media functioning as a campaign arm for Prince Barack, a Republican candidate with no message, an election where the Republican candidate was outspent 4:1 and lost every debate by a wide margin--why Obama didn't win in a FDR-like landslide should be the question people ask, not why we lost.
To be sure, though, the exit polling/results indentifies some disturbing trends:
--White voters voted for McCain by the same margin they voted for Bush in 2000. But their percentage of the electorate declined from 81% to 74%. Meanwhile, minorities are even more Democratic than they were when Bush was elected.
This is going to be a huge problem for the GOP in Nevada, where the white vote declined from 77% to 69% in four years--and will continue when Prince Barack signs the amnesty bill. Remember, Bush only narrowly won Nevada and Prince Barack won it by double digits this time around.
It's also a problem in Florida, where McCain lost because of a huge movement among Hispanics to Obama. Obama won hispanics there 57-42 while Bush won them by double digits in 2004. By contrast, the white vote in 2008 was identical to 2004.
--In Colorado there was a large shift among whites to Obama, who won them despite the fact that Bush carried them by double digits in 2004.
--We lost Indiana and North Carolina. I suspect we lost North Carolina for the same reasons we lost Virginia--more liberal migrants. But I really have no response to Obama winning Indiana other than to note it borders Illinois.
Other observations:
--Obama's four point margin in Ohio was unimpressive considering that Ohio is going through hard economic times and that Bush only won it by 2 points.
--People keep saying that we need more white working class voters to make up for the more liberal white college graduates. But the loss of white college grads is made up for a gain in minority college grads.


Comments
We need to gain all college grads back
College graduates tend to be conservative, though less so on social issues. There is a lot of low hanging fruit here. College graduates (though not post-grads) have always voted overwhelmingly Republcian, though that ended this year.
We can't be the small town, rural party anymore. We need to refocus on fiscal conservatives. I am not suggesting that we abandon social issues, but we need to refocus our support for social issues under the mantra of personal responsibility. This will help us win back urban, fiscal conservative, socially moderate voters.
The Republican party cannot succeed while losing college graduates. The Republican party cannot succeed while winning only 33% of the highly educated youth vote. By focusing on young, college educated voters we will win back minorities as well, especially as minority education continues to improve.
The rich white vote
We got an issue change-up is perhaps how this vote shift happened ...
Reagan Landslide ...
Rich whites voted based on fiscal issues (conservative).
Poor white voted based on social issues (conservative).
Obama (non-landslide) victory:
Rich whites voted based on social issues. (
Poor whites voted based on fiscal issues.
Definitely a good point.