Defending Social Conservatives

Crossposted at Right Minds

In the days following a presidential election, both sides turn introspective and attempt to chart the future path of their political party. In 2004, conservative pundits started writing books like Painting the Map Red and started gloating about the influence of “values voters,” while liberals wrote books like What’s the Matter with Kansas? and griped about flyover country. The same phenomenon can be seen in 2008—both sides are frantically trying to determine what this election tells us about the political future of the nation.

Apparently, the lessons of this election are the exact opposites of the ones learned from 2004. Liberal strategists are plotting ways to paint the map permanently blue, while conservatives wonder what’s the matter with Pennsylvania and worry that they’ll be consigned to eternal minority status.

Most of this analysis is a harmless overreaction to recent events and won’t have much influence. But there is one idea, popular among many conservatives, that is potentially destructive. This view cites the Republican party’s emphasis on social issues as a reason for its unpopularity among voters.

This line of reasoning goes that social conservatives might make up about a third (give or take a few percentage points) of the electorate, but you need 51% to win and pandering to those scary social conservatives drive away moderate voters, which are necessary for victory. According to proponents of this view (David Frum is one; David Brooks is another), conservatives should propose more moderate, work-towards-the-center policies, such as accepting abortion and fighting climate change, which would, in theory, appeal to educated, upper-middle class voters.

I’m not sure what would happen to the social conservatives under this model; I think that the idea is that they would have to face up to reality and keep voting Republican.

This idea is completely divorced from reality. One of the most noticeable features about post election theorizing is the idea that anything that didn’t take place within the last two years never happened, which might explain how values voters went from cornerstones of the GOP’s success in 2004 to a millstone around the GOP’s neck in 2008. Do demographics really change so fast that embracing a certain group could be essential for victory in one election but actually harmful in the next?

Apparently so, according the many GOP moderates. But even if we accept that these instant demographic shifts as plausible, there really isn’t much evidence that the GOP’s social attitudes are driving away voters in great numbers.

Exit polls are dubious at best—they failed to predict the correct results in 2000 or 2004, and were significantly off in 2008 as well. But no matter how bad they are, pundits seem to accept their results as gospel, so we’ll work with them. They didn’t show Obama winning because the public was uneasy about a potential theocracy—for the most part, Obama voters cited the economy and a desire for change as their primary reasons for voting Democrat. Social issues didn’t depress the Republican vote—in fact, given the fact that McCain won primarily socially conservative Southern states, it might have prevented an Obama landslide.

Moving beyond exit polls, actual Republican voters spoke by voting down pro-abortion candidate Rudy Giuliani. For years, Democrats have attempted to mollify pro-lifers by supporting “safe, legal, and rare” abortions (without much success). There is little evidence that Republican opposition to abortion costs them many votes—on the contrary, it is the party’s attitudes on the economy and the war that lost the 2006 and 2008 elections.

Given the fact that there isn’t much evidence that appealing to social conservatives hurts Republicans with moderates, why do so many Republicans propose jettisoning this group? There is not, of course, only one answer, but I think much of the solution lies in the fact that many of those most vocal against social conservatives represent either the fiscal conservative or neocon wings of the party. President Bush’s fiscal and foreign relations policies have been incredibly damaging to the GOP’s reputation. Social conservatives are an insular group, and don’t have many defenders. This means that they form a perfect target for those within the conservative movement who don’t wish to admit that so many of the policies they endorsed are miserable failures.
 

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social conservatives

 I respectfully disagree with the author. As a life-long republican I recall how Reagan created a republican revolution: with a new generation of young republicans. Obama accomplished just that in this election. In additon to all minorities, two key groups went for him significantly: young voters and women. They see him and the democrats as the party of the future, of the 21st century and the republicans as a party of racists, anti-women, that are willing to destroy planet earth and that only care about war and telling people what they can and cannot do in the bedroom. The Palin rallies looked more like KKK meetings and I can assure you most young people who watched it were horrified enough to affect them for many election cycles to come. In Obama, what they saw was a candidate offering hope for the future not fear mongering. I think it was very telling that in the last debate the abortion question was a highlight for Obama and a low point for McCain. why? because McCain came off as the radical when he asserted that somehow women are faking health problems so they can have late term abortions (as if anybody would wish for that). I think the republican party needs to go back to its roots as the party of small government but with a more hopeful vision of the future, a new commitment to the environment and energy independence which most young people now view as critical, and to leave social issues in the hands of people. It is a new world, and a new time, and our party needs to rise to the challenge and redefine itself as a progressive party that keeps government in check. That is an important role and it needs to be preserved. Unfortunately, by getting in bed with the evangelicals , the party now looks medieval and unattractive to ethnically diverse groups, young people, and a majority of women.

Palin rallies looked like KKK

Palin rallies looked like KKK meetings? Please. I went to two; there weren't any incidents at either one. I had friends who went to others, they reported the same thing. Unless Palin audiences in Cincinnati are different from the rest of the country, your whole assertion is ridiculous.

I saw where she campaigned.

she campaigned in the heart of KKK country, USA.

Some people came to see her mooseracks, i hear.

They certainly didn't come to say "All your base are belong to us" like someone asked Obama at one of his rallies.

What does that say about Obama?

So, what does that say about Obama?

He went to many of the same states and cities...

People got that impression from the media, who cut and splice their coverage to leave people with the impressions they want.

It says absolutely nothign about Obama

because he wasn't the one saying vile things about the opposition. I think Obama went to practically everywhere that Palin went, and then some, during the primaries. No matter. It's one thing to come and talk about butter and brass tacks, it's another to come and scream CRAZY CALL!

It's a shame too, that Mccain sold out all of his principles. He used to sound like ol' Goldwater.

what "VILE THINGS" did Palin say

So list it out, what "VILE THINGS" did Palin say about the opposition?

Well, we can start by treating the whole thing

like it was some sort of "please push these buttons" game

Barack Obama, she told 8,000 fans at a rally here Monday afternoon, "launched his political career in the living room of a domestic terrorist!" This followed her earlier accusation that the Democrat pals around with terrorists. "This is not a man who sees America the way you and I see America," she told the Clearwater crowd. "I'm afraid this is someone who sees America as imperfect enough to work with a former domestic terrorist who had targeted his own country." The crowd replied with boos.

Palin also told those gathered that Obama doesn't like American soldiers. "He said that our troops in Afghanistan are just, quote, 'air-raiding villages and killing civilians,' " she said, drawing boos from a crowd that had not been told Obama was actually appealing for more troops in Afghanistan.

simple google, isn't it?

and what statement there was not true?

a) Ayers has admitted he is a "family friend" of Obama

b) The Afghanistan line was a direct quote from Obama (with video documentation). Hey, you want to get the peacenik vote in primaries, expect consequences in the general election

"They say we're giving 'em hell.  We just tell the truth and then they call it hell"

Our 33rd President. derided by the press at the time as an backward bumpkin (sound vaguely familiar?).

If stating the truth is vile, then we're all in trouble

If the shoe fits...

Ayers himself...

“We had served together on the board of a foundation, knew one another as neighbors and family friends, held an initial fund-raiser at my house, where I’d made a small donation to his earliest political campaign,” he writes.

So, why did Obama practically dismiss any connection to Ayers?  And why didn't the press show any interest in bringing this connection to light?

And Obama's own words...

"We've got to get the job done there and that requires us to have enough troops so that we're not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there."

Now, right or wrong, that's a pretty piss poor way of saying you support the troops.  It certainly mischaracterized what the troops were doing over there.

So, how are these statements so "vile"

If stating the truth is vile, then we're all in trouble

C'mon Keith. it's called....

The "Fairness Doctrine"

But we don't have to fear the

But we don't have to fear the Fairness Doctrine comming back.  Afterall, no important Democrats are talking about it.

Bovine Excrement

Most of Palin's campaigning in the final weeks of the campaign was in OH and PA. Are we back to insulting people in the upper Midwest?

There's only one former Klansmen active in American politics today. When is the Democratic party going to demand Robert Byrd's resignation?   

I GREW UP THERE

You think I am unable to read the papers when she visits my hometown? My good sir, I think you will find yourself mistaken. And, though you may think it hard to believe, it is indeed the case that the modern day heart of the KKK lies in Pennsylvania, not so far from where I grew up. We are here to accurately characterize where she was campaigning, and with what methodology. In Pennsyltucky, the Southern Strategy was deployed with vigor, if definitively not without valor.

It is apt indeed that you speak of the good Senator from West Virgina. If the goodwife from Alaska will kindly apologize in the abject terms that the honorable gentleman from West Virginia has used, I will deign to consider her 'reformed.' And then, perhaps, she will have done herself enough credit that I may contemplate voting for her. Until then, however, she remains a miserable wreck of a shrew, reduced to spouting not platitudes but raw hysteria. Oh, I have no doubt that you will offer an alternative explanation that is more plausible, as to the crudeness of her words -- after all, she was still breastfeeding.

(It would, I suppose, be obvious that it is not only Krauthaummer who has a fascination with etymology?)

You oppose racism by being

You oppose racism by being sexist.

Smart move.

 

your failure to understand sarcasm

does not indicate my beliefs on racism or sexism or bigotry. You may try again later, however, if you can come up with some more coherent arguments.

If that was sarcasm then I

If that was sarcasm then I need to lay off the vicodin. 

perhaps i'm misreading you, then.

mea culpa, if so.

I believe, in an attempt at humor, I attributed Palin's overall shrillness to her having a uterus, and then further worked at putting my foot in my mouth by conflating that with PMS -- which she would not be experiencing because of breastfeeding.

That was what I interpreted you criticising (as I would, if i had not been joking). If that was not your point, kindly provide more direction to what you're saying.

Sorry didn't see anything ironic

Sorry didn't see anything ironic in anything you said.  Sarcasm doesn't always translate well on the internet.

no problem! my silliness and hyperness often gets

the better of my common sense.

whiskey tango foxtrot?

whatever you are consuming at the moment, please stop.

FYI: At the time Byrd was a Klansman they were mostly an anti-Catholic group. So I';m sure they have droves of followers in PA and OH.

Yes, indeed. I don't have time to get into

the amount of scholarly research about the prevalence of bigotry (and bigoted acts) versus direct encounters with people that the bigoted feel are beneath them. There's plenty of it.

"mostly an anti-catholic group" -- got a citation on that? As far as Al-Jazeera's reporting goes, for that area, it would have made more sense to be an anti-black group, as they were being used against union labor.

well, you are the one you claimed to be the expert on the Klan

guess not

 

A question...

I couldn't agree more with your assessment that these post-election analyses behave as if the results on that given Tuesday night portend permanent and irrefutable national truths (remember how 2004 meant the GOP had a permanent majority?).  Obviously these greatly overstate the importance of voting behaviors that may have been formed mere weeks before the election (like the financial crisis in 2008).  The other thing I've observed is these proclamations usually are completely devoid of nuance -- they're sweeping generalizations with no room for the details.

Here's a thought as it relates to social conservatism: is the problem that the GOP focused too much on appealing to social conservatives, or was the problem in HOW it appealed to them?  I don't know the answer, but I have to believe it's a little more complex than "social conservatism is SO 2004."

I was four years old in 1980, so my knowledge of what elected Ronald Reagan is derived from the history books, rather than what I felt in my gut at the time.  I have to wonder if the difference is that instead of appealing to the concerns of social conservatives in a manner consistent with the philosophy of conservatism generally, we've now created a contradiction. 

In 1980, social conservatives felt under siege by a Democratic administration threatening the tax exemption of churches and a Dept. of Education they felt was purging their local schools of anything resembling Judeo-Christian values, as well as an activist Supreme Court bent on imposing moral relativism with no accountability to voters.  Ronald Reagan came along with a promise to get government out of our lives - a message that applied to those social conservatives, as well as economic conservatives. However, I wonder if since (particularly post-2000 and 2004), the GOP at large (read: the Bush Administration and congressional leadership) was more intent on federalizing the desires of social conservatives, in the form of a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage, versus fighting it in the states -- as was advocated by the Bush campaign in 2000 -- or intervening in the Terry Schiavo case.  I believe both contributed to the belief that Republicans wanted to use Washington to impose a value system, while Republican candidates were making speeches about getting Washington out of our lives.  The Schiavo case in particular seemed to solidify the perception that when it was sought by evangelicals, Republicans were very much for getting Washington into our lives.  This strikes me as a stark contrast between the GOP of 1980 and 2006, even though in both cases the party was looking to appeal to social conservatives.

I don't know if this is the case, but it's question worth asking.  The saying about a government powerful enough to give you everything you want is powerful enough to take it all away comes to mind.  Reagan said government should be smaller, and told social conservatives how that would be to their benefit.  The modern GOP has said government should be smaller, except for when it comes to the wishes of social conservatives.  This is a more subtle difference than saying that we should throw the baby out with the bathwater by showing social conservatives the door.  Maybe instead of discussing how Republicans need to get away from social conservatism, we should be discussing how to get back to our small government principles, and how that will be good for everyone, social conservatives included. 

Not so much a statement on my part, as a question.

I could be down with that

and I despise Dominionists and all other separatist groups.

Here in California (the heart of the left coast)...

here in California, both Prop 8 (gay marriage) and Prop 4 (parental notification for abortions) were almost 50/50.  Prop 2 (gay marriage ban) passed in Florida with over 62% of the vote.  Somebody remind me which way California and Florida went in the electoral college? ;)  The GOP's traditional connection to social conservatives did not lose this election for McCain.

And regarding the connection to evangelicals; didn't anybody watch Barack describe his faith? He really gave a more classically-evangelical Christian answer than McCain did, getting very specific about what his faith meant, who Jesus was, and what Jesus had done. McCain was quite vague and inarticulate on the issue.  When in 2001, 76% of Americans identify themselves with some form of Christianity (protestant/catholic etc,) religion is not what's losing elections.

I'd solidly put the blame on: a) poor management. We've spent too much time trying to be big government (not having a balanced budget, social-programs up the wazoo) and b) getting caught in scandal after scandal.

issues of faith

I went to a Palin rally in Florida. It was bizarre to say the least. Not an attractive group to be associated...and I saw why she is so popular with the right of the party: she appealed to their biases, fears and intolerance. Powerful but short-sighted. Others reported the same in Virginia. I dont know about Ohio... 

Yes is true that Obama is religious and we saw that. But I think the difference to most moderates, and to young people is that they dont view him or other democratic candidates as trying to force their religious views on others. As to Florida and California , go look at the numbers for young people on the gay ban. They were overwhelmingly against it (much more than usually seen in social issues). Also look at the abortion measures : most (none?) passed. All I'm saying is people want a president that is privately religious and a government that does not interfere with their pockets or their private lives. There is a revolution going on in this country with young people and it was seized by the Obama campaign. I hope the republican party modernizes what they represent and moves to the center, or we will have 8 or 12 or 16 years of democratic rule as we did when Reagan captured the imagination of the then young people.

 

OK, we get it, Marty, thanks

You think white social conservatives are bizarre.

Now, exactly who is the bigot here?

what a fool believes he sees

 I'm a white conservative and I dont think I'm bizarre (a little weird at times, but who isn't...?). What I meant by bizarre is a significant percentage of people in the rally I went were waving confederacy flags, asserting Obama is a terrorist baby killing muslim, and mixing religion with politics. As a big proponent of small government, these people just plain scare the heck out of me and the majority of moderates and liberals, specially young people.

Oh my, it sounds as dangerous as a Lynyrd Skynyrd concert

Confederate flags!, in Florida! Let's overturn Ex Parte Milligan! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_parte_Milligan

Yet no comment

On the polls showing that young voters are increasingly more secular? More willing to support gay marriage? More willing to support abortion? More Democratic in general? Do you think that's just a fluke, or are you not worried about that?

Trinity UUC is an evangelical church

... that's how he came to christianity... not surprised that he uses the evangelical viewpoint ;-)

Bigotry is wrong

Even if you find enough people to successfully stir animosity in and are able to draw people to the polls with the promise of the power to punish people they hate, it's morally offensive.  That's why people are clamorring to jettison the RR.  There's really no relevance of the brand name "Republican" winning for most of us - we're not high-ranking party officials getting kickbacks or something just for being in power, so it's puzzling why you'd expect any of us to be intersted getting people to vote in our name for horrible things, just to be able to say that Republicans won.

calling people whom you disagree with bigots isn't right, either

You know . maybe some people actually take their faith seriously. Maybe some people really are not supportive of liberal social issue initiatives. Perhaps they've reached these conclusions in good faith, and not based on irrational prejudice.

Now there are some absolutists out there, like the folks who wanted Jeb Bush to send the state troopers in to seize Terri Schiavo. But then there's Keith Olbermann. Who has the national megaphone?

There's a well orchestrated effort to demonize and marginalize people offering principled opposition to the new crew in DC.  This RINO from New England ain't getting in line with the project.   

I wouldn't call people bigots just for disagreeing with me

And I didn't imply as much either.  You know exactly what I'm talking about so explaining my usage of the term would be superfluous. 

Straw man

 "According to proponents of this view (David Frum is one; David Brooks is another), conservatives should propose more moderate, work-towards-the-center policies, such as accepting abortion and fighting climate change, which would, in theory, appeal to educated, upper-middle class voters."

I notice a lack of any quote or citation here.  Who said they would have to "accept abortion".  If you want to attack their argument, at least present it fairly.

They aren't arguing for a yes/no on social conservatism.  They are arguing that it has overreached.  They are saying be pro-life, but don't ban stem cell research funding and.  They are saying that Congress should not intervene in the medical decisions of individual women in Florida.

They aren't saying let in unlimited illegal aliens.  They are saying the tone matters.  If you talk like these people are scum, it's unsurprisng their relatives will not vote for you.  

And they aren't saying we need some Climate Czar Al Gore.  They are saying that we should be able to discuss how we deal with the negative externalities of climate change.  We should be at the table when the solutions are being written.  If we don't like cap and trade, then what solutions do we have.

But fundamentally, their concern is that the GOP is losing more and more moderate suburban voters.  It's not because these people are stridently pro-abortion, but they don't see social issues as their primary concern.  So if the GOP is focused on abortion and the Democrats are talking about foreclosures and new roads, the GOP can seem disconnected from their concerns.

One reason McCain appealed to me is that he is socially conservative on the vast majority of issues (pro-life, judges, anti-same-sex marriage), but not in a way that scares off people who disagree with him.  

Uh...actually, I'm pretty

Uh...actually, I'm pretty sure that David Frum, at least, supports some form of legal abortion, but is against embryonic stem cell research, at least if this is any indication. Your statement of this position and my statement of the same position are basically the same--basically, that an emphasis on abortion drives away, for whatever reason, more moderate voters. Would you accept this as an accurate statement of the Frum, Brooks, et al position?

Yep.

Actually, the fiscal conservatives ought to make common cause with the social conservatives because the DC GOP sold both of us out. Terri Schiavo was a disasterous effort to quickly "make good" with these voters, and backfired badly.  The GOP may have been right on the merits, but approached this in a heavy handed grandstanding manner. 

One thing I like about Sarah Palin to date is she spends more time "walking the walk" as to her value system instead of just mouthing off. I hope she resists the pleas to put social issues front and center; bringing Trig into the world is enough documentation for the likes of me. 

Always easy to blame

social conservatives, because some of the times, they are insufferable and do some stupid things.  But they are the base of the party.  You try to purge them, and there is no Republican Party.  We can't build a winning majority based on libertarians.

Social issues were virtually silent this election cycle.  And yet, this gets the blame for why McCain and all the Republican Congressman lost.  There are two reasons why we lost: Bush and McCain's inept handling of the financial crisis.  Does anyone believe that in four years Indiana became way more secular?  No, they just became much more angry at Republican incompetence.

Of course, I do think some excesses of social conservatism should be shorn, like the "debate" over whether evolution is real (hint: it's real, and it doesn't threaten religion).  But where the votes are for the conservative coalition is among social conservatives.

good point

 Chris makes good points. It was the economy for the middle class that did it, I agree. But, I also know that Palin turned off a lot more people than she energized, particularly independents. She seemed unprepared, and her calling upon God for government affairs, was plain scary. Also, it cannot be denied that young people are turned off by the social conservatives in overwhelming numbers never seen before (two thirds voted for Obama and most sided with pro-choice and pro-gay views!) and they are the future electorate. Will they change and become more conservative as they age? almost certainly. But they are so far left at this point and so energized by the Obama campaign , and by their view of environmental issues, that I'm sure they will settle out much closer to the center than the young Reagan republicans did and our party better be prepared for this!

a THIRD? WTF?

http://people-press.org/report/242/beyond-red-vs-blue

excuse me, facts need adjusting. 20% tops.

Glad we figured out why Palin was so awful

My god, she campaigned in northern states telling the truth about Barack Obama. Clearly her strategy was intended to lead to the destruction of American society!

(that's sarcasm, mon gauche amies)

 

Palin was telling the truth about Obama????

She now says she is proud of him and that he is a cool guy that she would work for! I guess either she didnt believe the litany of lies she was telling about Obama or she just doesnt think they are that big a deal anymore that the campaign is over. 

Palin is the main reason I did not vote for McCain. I admire him and consider him an american hero and felt he deserved the post much more than this overly ambitious young senator that lacks experience and hasn't really paid his dues. But when he picked Palin I was shocked. Then her disastrous interviews took place....nobody forced her to say *twice* that she has foreign policy experience based on Russia's proximity to Alaska. Nobody placed those horrid talking points into her mouth when she tried to explain the bailout. And nobody forced her to refuse to answer most questions in the VP debate while flirting and winking at the camera as if this was a Miss Congeniality contest (I highly recommend reading the transcript of the debate.... without all the flare, her answers are very limited at best). She did all of this on her own and it demonstrated two things: the choke the social conservatives have on the republican party and an utter lack of judgement on McCain's part who put this country at risk (if she were to become president) to regain the republican base. And I dont care to hear how she is a real person and all that garbage!!!! she is unqualified to be VP in actual preparation, education and in intelligence. I want the smartest people in this country running it, specially in these times. We already had  a president who placed instinct over logic, and religion over reason (Bush) and look where it got us! but I understood voting for Bush: he connected with americans deeply after the 9/11 events. Palin is the prime example of why the republican party needs to shed the social conservatives. And all this tunnel vision about how questioning the president or government is anti-american and how intellectuals are undesirables?? please somebody get the republican party a brain pronto!!

During this campaign Palin was a national embarassment. No wonder our friends around the world and specially Europe were scratching their heads after the VP debate. Oh, how I long for the Reagan days!!!!!!

 

You mean back when the press thought the President was a dummy?

Reagan then wasn't held in much higher regard than Palin is now. The big difference was after Reagan got elected they had to call the clueless actor President.

BTW, did you have the same sence of outrage that the Democrats would put a one term senator on the ticket with no foreign policy experience?

The election is over. Governor Palin was graceful. Smart too. She doesn't want Obama to screw everybody over AK's resources because she's throwing post-election grenades.

read the whole thing before you comment please

 " I admire him and consider him an american hero and felt he deserved the post much more than this overly ambitious young senator that lacks experience and hasn't really paid his dues"---that was from my previous post and the inexperienced senator I was referring to is Obama. Of course I thought he was too inexperience. i was all set to vote for McCain...until he picked Palin.

 

As to Reagan vs Palin,  is not just about knowledge or experience is also about intelligence. Reagan proceeded to have great debate performances and while we saw that he lacked some knowledge, he had the intellect and the intellectual curiosity to get there. (btw, same thing with Obama...) Palin has not demonstrated either. Even with questions she is being asked before, she has trouble!! She is a good person, a good mom, perhaps a good governor, but intellectual giant she is not, (6 colleges in 6 years). And all that talk about how her creator with help her make decisions, is just plain loco. She is more like Nancy Reagan than Ronald. And  no I'm not sexist...there were many better qualified republican women to chose from but Mccain selected her to please the religious wackos!

So you voted for the lesser

So you voted for the lesser man, because the better man picked someone you found distasteful.

Good thing Katie got advice from Nunn and Haass, otherwise you may not have arrived at that impression.

not distasteful... just mediocre and limited

 In the end Obama was the better man: intellectually (top of his Harvard class), poised (I respected his response to the economic crisis), and excellent judgement (his VP pick, while a little prone to gaffes, is a statesman of decades who made Palin look like a third grader in the debate). McCain, whom I respect, made a horrible judgement call with Palin, his response to the economic crisis was bizarre, seemed very impulsive in his decision making, and his campaigning style offended me at the end  Those are my personal reasons for my choice. I'll be more than happy to return to my party if they put forward a worthy ticket, not based on emotion, religion, or politics  but in logic, integrity, and intelligence. I'm eagerly awaiting for it!