Events Give Rossi an Opening in Evergreen State Gov Contest

Dino Rossi embarked last fall on a rematch of the now famous 2004 Washington Governor's race by focusing on a number of issues at the fore of local voters' minds in recent years, including education and transportation.  The events of 2008, however, have opened new and fertile territory for Rossi.

A huge spike in state spending under now incumbent Christine Gregoire coupled with declining tax revenues (another victim of the housing market's downward slide), has left the state with an estimated $2.7 billion budget deficit looming.

Gregoire's response?  Ignore it, repeatedly.  That includes apperances on the campaign trail and in responding to a question on the deficit posed via YouTube's YouChoose08.

Rossi's response is summed up in his latest ad:

Rossi has a unique background on which to make such claims.  He made a name for himself while in the state Senate working with then Governor Gary Locke (D) and Democrats in the Legislature to close a huge budget gap without deep cuts to programs serving society's most vulnberable citizens.

More importantly, not only is Gregoire refusing to acknowledge the issue, her own ads continue to lack the recognition of voter angst over gas prices and other pocketbook concerns.  That dual tone deafness might be part of the reason she polled well under 50% in the state's recent primary (results that were strikingly similar to recent public polling).

Rossi has stayed locked in a tight race despite $2 million in negative ads run thus far by a PAC infused with DGA and labor union money.  While the conservative Building Industry Association of Washington has mitigated some of that with their own anti-Gregoire work, the RGA has not yet weighed into the race publicly.  That's about to change, with more no doubt coming - from both sides - before Election Day.

While all that unfolds, Rossi has been benefiting from his own inspired GOP base, even before Sarah Palin's arrival on the national political scence set the conservative grassroots on fire.  Rossi has benefited from a sizable, small donor base - his campaign just recently announced it's 42,000th contributor.  Some 60% of those donors are new to the Rossi ranks, meaning the weren't a part of the slightly over 30,000 contributors that fueled his surprisingly strong 2004 run.

All the ingredients are there for a potential Rossi upset:  a vulnerable incumbent, an excited base (doubly so now), and an issue environment that has the Republican more in tune with real voter concerns than the Democrat.

Calling it a "race to watch" would be an understatement.