Turning the Tide in Virginia

(Promoted -- our first front-page piece of local blogging and a cautionary tale from right here in the Commonwealth about what happens when the Democrats are allowed to outflank us on spending. -Patrick)

A subtle for this blog post could be something along the lines of "My Story as a George Fitch Republican" or "Why I Am a George Fitch Republican."

In 2005, I cast my first vote in a Republican primary--a sign both of my age (or lack thereof) and the general uncompetitive and rare nature of Republican primaries in my state of Virginia (compared to our often divisive convention fights). Virginia was holding a primary for the Republican nomination for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Attorney General. There was already a clear front-runner on the Gubernatorial side, then Attorney General and eventual Gubernatorial loser Jerry Kilgore, but it didn't matter to me--I walked into my local elementary school and pulled the lever for Mayor George Fitch of Warrenton.

As a note, I allowed my regionalism to influence my vote down ballot. I voted for my State Senator at the time, Bill Bolling, for Lt. Governor (He won both the primary and the general election) and for local Richmond Attorney and conservative activist Steve Baril for Attorney General (He lost, but Republican nominee Bob McDonnell went on to win the general election). Next year, Republicans in Virginia will be united behind a ticket headed by McDonnell as our Gubernatorial nominee and Bolling running for another term as Lt. Governor.

For several years now, Virginia has displayed a troublesome drift to the Democratic Party. While some can argue that the state is naturally trending blue because of demographics and a new "radical centrism" championed by former Governor Mark Warner, a look back on Virginia shows that the election of Democrats in the Old Dominion is a case of unforced errors by our Republican Party.

Take for instance the 2001 election that sent Mark Warner to the Governor's Mansion with Time Kaine as his number two. That same election also sent 64 Republican Delegates, and 2 Independents that caucused with the Republican Party, out of 100. Democrats have slowly made gains in the House of Delegates, but hardly to a degree that would convince most impartial observers that Virginia is a soon to become blue state.

In 1996, the Cato Institute criticized then Governor George Allen for shifting too far away from his tax-cutting agenda after the 1995 state legislative election:

Allen's 1996 budget was a complete capitulation to the big spenders in the legislature: the tax cut was abandoned, school spending was increased by nearly $1 billion, and his request for funding for school vouchers was dropped. The budget Allen signed into law increases spending by 6 percent at a time when most other states are cutting spending.

Governor Allen left office and was replaced by Attorney General Jim Gilmore, who defeated the Democratic Lt. Governor Don Beyer in a campaign that focused heavily on Gilmore's promise to abolish the personal property tax on cars. The Cato Institute in 2000 noted Governor Gilmore's strong tax cutting record, but also warned:

But Gilmore's budget grade is one of the worst in the nation. The state budget has grown the fifth fastest in the nation: after accounting for increased local reimbursements as a result of the car tax, it rose almost 3 percent faster than population growth and inflation. State spending since 1998 has even grown 2 percent faster than personal income--Virginia has the sixth highest rate of income growth in the nation--during a period when most states have seen state spending shrink as a percentage of residents' wealth. Most of the increased spending was on grades K-12 and state universities, accounting altogether for about 25 percent of his $3 billion in proposed new spending for 20­02. Gilmore recently suggested that he may need to put a stop to the car tax repeal if revenue projections aren't met. Yet it is obvious that if spending hadn't ballooned during his term, plenty of money would be left for the car tax cut. His spending hikes could seriously jeopardize the fiscal legacy of Governor Gilmore.

Grover Norquist would like to argue that no one is going to walk away from the Republican Party because of spending and deficits. But that's exactly what happened in Virginia. After the failure of Republican Governors to show fiscal restraint in the 1990s, Mark Warner, a former Chairman of the Democratic Party, was able to run as a "businessman" and a "centrist" that would fix Virginia's budget crisis--a crisis that he, the media, and the public blamed on Republicans.

Remember that Governor Warner's term in Virginia produced only one legislative accomplishment: the largest tax increase in Virginia's history. Sadly, he has been able to use this one accomplishment (passed by a Republican General Assembly) to build a career that took him to the edge of a White House run and to an almost certain Senatorial victory this fall. Governor Warner deserves praise for being a skillful and masterful politician--or maybe an illusionist would be a better description for his game of smoke and mirrors.

First, Governor Warner appointed a commission headed by former Governor Doug Wilder to study ways to cut spending in Virginia. The commission reported back with over "$1 billion in cost savings that the state could realize by cutting waste and inefficiency."

Second, Governor Warner insisted that the state was facing a budget crisis that made a tax increase necessary--ignoring the recommendations for cutting waste and inefficiency and grossly overestimating the need for additional spending. After shutting down some DMV offices and sparking a public outcry, Warner shifted to a campaign for a $1.4 billion tax increase.

Third, the Republicans in the General Assembly buckled under Warner's pressure. The State Senate in particular was particularly weak in going along with Warner's tax hike--they wanted to raise taxes even more! But several members of the House of Delegates, such as Delegate Terry Kilgore (Jerry's brother), also supported the tax hike. Jerry himself ducked much of the tax hike debate, despite being the presumptive 2005 Gubernatorial nominee.

Governor Warner left Virginia with a record budget surplus--because of his unnecessary tax hike. The Republicans needed a candidate to run in 2005 against Warner's tax hike and in favor of tax cuts to return the money back to the Virginia taxpayers. Mayor George Fitch made that case, but Jerry Kilgore had the nomination locked up. Unable to make a strong case against the Warner-Kaine record, he turned to attacking Kaine for his stance against the death penalty. One ill-advised ad later and the Gubernatorial election was lost.

The last Republican to win the Governor's Mansion in Virginia won it on a race based on economic conservatism. Gilmore failed to deliver spending restraint and the GOP was punished in 2001. Jerry Kilgore lost running a race based on social conservatism in 2005. The lessons are clear and parallel the hard truth that Republicans are learning nationwide.