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New York State Senate

Submitted by HouseGuru on Thu, 05/29/2008 - 14:12

With the empire state today in the news that Gov. Paterson is ordering all state agencies to recognize gay married couples from other states, I think it's the proper time to pause for a second and see where NY republicans are hading and why they need your help.

This blog's main focus is on races for the United States House of Representatives and this post has everything to do with house races as the other posts. Why? The magic word is "RIDISTRICTING". NY is poised to lose after the 2008 census two more House seats (they lost 2 seats in 2002 as well). Redistricting is a process between the Governors, State Assembly (House) and the State Senate.

In 2002 when NY State lost two House seats, Do to the republican majority in the State Senate there was an agreement between republican and democrats that each party loses one seat. After losing two special elections this cycle SD 7 in Long Island and SD 48 in upstate NY the republicans now hold a 2-seat majority in the senate (32-30). It's interesting to point out that the only good thing that might come out for republicans from Gov. Spitser's downfall, might be after the 2008 elections if the republicans lose only one seat in the senate it would be 31-3. Before Spitser left Lt. Gov. Paterson would have been the deciding vote and voted with the democrats and given them a 31- 31 majority, now with Joe Bruno as acting Lt. Gov. the republicans would still be in charge in the state senate.

The Republican Party in NY is in shambles and I can't understand why in the world they are bringing in to NYC for their annual fundraising event tonight, Vice President Cheney, Cheney in NY could be for a candidate a political death. The only time I might find myself in agreement with Congressman Wexler (D-FL 19) is that Cheney should be impeached. But I have a different reason, my reason is, so he shouldn't hurt the GOP candidates like some think he did in MS 1 and what he would do in NY. (I would like to point out that the Republican fundraising machine now sends the Vice President mostly to raise funds for state parties so individual candidates aren't associated with him but the state party has the financial advantage to help their local candidates.

The republicans are trying what they could with putting some safe democratic seats into play and trying to win back some lost seats they have actually recruited some great candidates (moderates) but it looks like an uphill battle for the Republicans to hold the State Senate. You all out there take a look at your local State House and State Senate candidate because in the next few years they will decide the future of congress.

On the House races front in NY. The race for NY 26 (Tom Reynolds) is getting ugly on the democratic side, with a 4th democrat announcing a run for the seat and one of them is a self-financer so there would be lot money spent on this race.

Some hope for the GOP is coming from soon to be former Congressman Tom Reynolds. When he announced his retirement it was rumored that he would take over the NY State GOP and recently he met with NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg about helping out the GOP so it shows that he might be looking in to it.

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Impeachment

Submitted by gothampc on Thu, 05/29/2008 - 16:01.

"The only time I might find myself in agreement with Congressman Wexler (D-FL 19) is that Cheney should be impeached. But I have a different reason, my reason is, so he shouldn't hurt the GOP candidates like some think he did in MS 1 and what he would do in NY."

No he should not be impeached.  People are pressing for impeachment too often now.  It should be reserved only for very extreme and questionable behavior.  It shouldn't be so lightly esteemed and casually used. 

I hope you know that I was

Submitted by HouseGuru on Thu, 05/29/2008 - 16:39.

I hope you know that I was only kidding... I think that Cheney is a great guy but his time is over and he should move out of the spotlight.

More of the Story

Submitted by Ironman on Thu, 05/29/2008 - 19:24.

1. The NY State Senate are definititely uberestablishment Republicans and far, far from being fiscal conservatives. A few years back, when George Pataki got cold feet on spending money, Bruno actually sided with Dem Speaker Silver to pry the spigot open.

That said, the Dems in the State Senate are virtually all hard-line NYC liberals with a few moderates recently elected from old GOP seats. Were they to gain the majority, folks like Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine would be promptly muzzled. It's a lesser of two evils on fiscal issues

2.  The NY State Senate is ironically a bit towards the Huckabee approach, as they are skeptical of social liberalism on the state level (they let Bloomie do his own thing on the city level; as it doesn;t bother most of the caucus) and love pork barrel. Bruno's home town has been saved from chronic depression by state money, but this is not a viable approach in the other 61 districts.

3. The average age of GOP state senators exceeds the AARP's. They are going to have a huge problem holding seats as they open, especially the three seats they still hold in Brooklyn and Queens.  Much as their senators are aging, so is the native born white catholic population in these districts, which is the GOP political base in NY state..    

4. They have confused the public. Johnson won a formerly GOP seat in Nassau County claiming skepticism about taxes and spending; while the GOP candidate tried to scare people about health care cuts. This is the price of having 1199 (the big hospital union) endorse you. The moment the Dems take the majority the present union support for the GOP senators will disappear.  The loss of fiscal crediblity will linger, however.

The good news, ironically, is the GOP has lost so much ground that when reapportionment occurs it will probably require the repeal of the laws of physics not to draw new districts that won't hurt Democratic incumbents.