A total of 42 percent of voters say they "definitely" or "probably" will vote to reelect Sen. Dodd in 2010, while 51 percent say the "probably won't" or "definitely won't" vote for him.
By a 54 - 24 percent margin, Connecticut voters say they are not satisfied with Sen. Dodd's explanation of allegations that he received preferential mortgage treatment and 56 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for him because of this controversy.
"Sen. Dodd is vulnerable. His approval has sunk to a new low. More voters disapprove than approve of the job he is doing for the first time in 15 years of polling," Schwartz said. "The mortgage controversy has taken a toll on his approval rating. Most voters are not satisfied with Dodd's explanation and say they are less likely to vote for him next year because of it."
If anything, the polls's internals are even more horrific for Senator Dodd than the widely reported toplines
11% of CT voters will "defintively" vote to re-elect Dodd; while 32% of CT voters will "definitely" vote against Dodd.
So the "intensity" in this race is starting off 3 to 1 against the incumbent; who will need 67% of those voters who aren't committed to firing him in order to hold office.
On the question of trust, unaffiliated voters break 39%- to 45% against Dodd being "honest and trustworthy" By a 19% to 59% measure they aren;t satisfied with Dodd' explanation of how he got "VIP" treatment from Countrywide Mortgage.
Perhaps most ominously for Dodd, he is losing the re-elect question in CT's three rural eastern counties . where he once represented in Congress and where his possible opponent (Fmr. Congressman Rob Simmons) is from. Even people living near Dodd Stadium are sick of Chris Dodd.
Now how bad are these numbers? Well, I'm thinking Chris Dodd is in Rick Santorum sorta trouble; especially since in July 2005 Quinnipiac had Santorum with positive job approval. a and a plurality edge on the re-elect question.
As we know, Santorum went down by something like 18 points in a purple state. CT is bluer than PA is red, and the CT GOP is unlikely to find as strong a votegetter as Casey; but I challenge Nate Silver to explain why Chris Dodd isn't high on 538.com's list of vulnerable 2010 senate seats.
The problem for Dodd is he's already done his damage control on Countrywide and suffered more damage. Sure he promises to fight back, but let's "fisk" this statement, why don;t we.
When the time comes, Sen. Dodd will be ready with a vigorous, well-funded (by special interests) re-election campaign," said Dodd's spokesman, Bryan DeAngelis. "Now is the time for leadership and that is why Sen. Dodd is focused on helping Connecticut families get out of this economic crisis and hardship."
The Hartford Business Journal's Dean Pagani has suggested Democratic senior statesmen will intercede to get Dodd to go quietly into the night off to his Connemara cottage, so they can run the more popular Attorney General Dick Blumenthal or perhaps chomping at the bit Congressman Chris Murphy. But I think someone who thinks his family owns this senate seat is going to go down swinging irregardless of whether he hurts his party; he did waste over a year of his life on a risable race for President.
So, folks, if you thought 2006 was a fun senate election in CT, well we have an encore!!!...and one that a registered Republican can win!
I think Dodd is going to go down along with the economic disaster he helped create. Shouldn;t mess with karma, I say