"I saw the Empire State laid low.."

This was a line from an old Billy Joel song Miami 2017. Sadly, it accurately describes the straits of the New York State GOP.

Now, lots of folks will immediately post that this is a liberal, Democratic, Bush hating state chock full of nonwhite and nonchristian voters. Well, it wasn't Goldwater's Arizona a decade ago and the state still had a Republican Governor, a Republican senator, a Republican attorney general, and a dozen GOP congressmen.

Not to mention Giuliani was Mayor of NYC then.

So where have the mighty fallen:

a) the leader of the NY State Senate is stepping down  http://www.cbs6albany.com/news/bruno_1255832___article.html/decision_joe.html

Now Joe Bruno had been pretty much a status quo Republican over the past few terms; even opposing former Governor Pataki's budget cuts at one point. But with liberal Democrats controlling the rest of state government; status quo was actually pretty refreshing. We can thank Bruno for contributing to the self-immolation of former Governor Eliot Spitzer, for example.

Republicans are highly likely to hold Bruno's seat in the Albany suburbs but with a razor thin margin going into this election and many vulnerable incumbents, Dean Skelos's tenure as Majority Leader may be brief. http://www.wkbw.com/news/local/20747614.html

b) the Island of Lost Dreams

Staten Island's 13th Congressional District has been a Republican stronghold since the days of Reagan. It would take a political disaster for the Democrats to swing this seat. And guess what......the Republicans have had two already this year.

First, Cheato Vito Fossella's drinking and philandering render him politically toxic, so he stands down for re-election. Then ,after all the well known local officeholders passed on the race, a retired financier stepped up offering to partially self fund the race, and got the nod.

And he died

   http://www.nypost.com/seven/06242008/news/regionalnews/gop_left_in_the_lurch_on_si_116950.htm

Now there are enough registered Republicans and behavioral Republicans in this district that even one of the "nobodies" might win, since McCain is expected to carry this area. But we've taken a double whammy here.

Mike Bloomberg, who has never been accused of not having good radar for this stuff, exemplifies this. Adopting the GOP as a flag of convenience post Giuliani, he has now become quite publicly "independent".  

It's likely that in 2009 there will be no indicia of GOP control of state government,  low single digits of Republican house members out of 29, and control of no local government larger than some upstate counties.

No matter what you think of New York, this sort of weakness in the nation's third largest state--and still it's mainstream media capital--isn;t good for the party in the rest of the nation.

Looking outward, the national party may be too closely identified with southern white protestants for this electorate.

Looking inward, mushy moderate officeholders have made the local party's "brand"  hard to distinguish from the Democrats.  Weak candidate recruitment and gaffe prone campaigns haven't helped either.

If there's ever a state that desperately needs its own "Next Right", it's  New York,  Will the locals rise up, or will they huddle in the bunker or call Mayflower?