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McPalin; Competing for "Blue" PA

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 09/19/2008 - 21:28
in

The McCain campaign;s schdule for Monday should confirm they are making a serious push for PA's 21 electoral votes.  They have two events planned: a town meeting in Scranton and a rally in Media (suburban Philadelphia)

http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Calendar/Default.aspx

As we well know, Scranton is the epicenter of "bitter" PA , a Hillary Clinton stronghold and the longago birthplace of Joe Biden.. While generally conservative, Lackawanna County is traditionally Democratic. In 2004 it voted by a 59,000 to 45,000 margin for John Kerry. In 1988, the last time the GOP carried PA, Lackawanna county gave Dukakis only a 3,000 vote plurality. Team Mac would like to emulate that sort of performance.

Delaware County, the site of the rally, is one of the close-in suburban counties which has drifted away from the GOP in recent elections.  Kerry won this county by 42,000 over Bush (57%).This was almost a complete reversal from the results 16 years earlier, when Bush 41 won nearly 60% of the vote here en route to a 51,000 vote plurality.   

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/

McCain is likely to run much better in western PA than Republicans did in the 1980's, but victory in PA means bringing home wayward Republicans in SEPA suburbs.

By taking the campaign into somewhat "blue" parts of this state, the McCain team demonstrates a level of confidence that rallies the troops--much more than hangar rallies in conservative smal towns will.

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They can win PA

Submitted by Chris Palko on Sat, 09/20/2008 - 13:22.

I believe that McCain can win PA.  It's not assured.  In fact, its less than 50-50.  But if he gives a good effort I think there will be enough votes for him.  The Philly suburbs are where McCain needs to camp out.  They are why Bush lost the state in 2000 and 2004.  He needs to improve his numbers there or he won't be able to win.

Western Pennsylvania will be a big area of improvement for McCain.  Obama had an abysmal performance there and I think he could win the state on the strength of Democratic defections.

The county to watch out west is Beaver County.  It's an old Rust Belt county to the northwest of Pittsburgh.  Dems have a 2 to 1 registration advantage in the county, but Kerry only won the county with 51% to Bush's 48%.  In the primary, Beaver went for Hillary by a margin of 70% to 30%.  Beaver County has voted for every Democrat in a Presidential election except for McGovern.  It even voted above 60% for Mondale of all people.  Yet, I think that McCain could win the county.  If he wins Beaver, the turnaround in Western PA could put McCain over the top.