Narratives matter

Two GOP pundits got caught on an open mike yesterday treating John McCain's choice of Sarah Palin as something on the order of the introduction of New Coke. One offered the opinion to the effect that "narratives are bull---t"

Hard to see how they made a living in this business.  What a candidate says and does is the narrative, and at the end of the day, it's all they have to sell to gain votes beyond that base number of voters who will vote for any living organism nominated by their party.

Abe Lincoln? The railsplitter born in a log cabin, the honest lawyer?  That's a narrative

Teddy Roosevelt? The hardcharging cowboy leading his men up San Juan Hill? Narrative

Richard Nixon? The poor boy from Whittier who took on the liberal establishment? Narrative.

Notice I haven't even gotten to the Reagan-Bush era yet.

Barack Obama is completely a narrative---the biracial philosopher king who will transcend all past divisions in our society?  

Now this is where campaigns fail. They lose sight of their narrative and to meet short term challenges go "off message". Then they look like "any other politician" and are treated  as such by the voters. (I would suggest that unattainable narratives, ala Obama's are a problem, too.)

In their vice presidential choices, Obama weakened his narrative. McCain improved his.

Obama had run on being the ultimate agent of change, but when push came to shove fell back on the most senior possible choice, Joe Biden, who's primary attribute was that he was believed to be an effective partisan attack dog.

Obama had the opportunity to define himself as post-political and truly representing generational change and a truly national campaign. Running with a deep blue Hackasaurus Maximus indeed pointed a light back at elements of Obama's resume (Chicago machine politics) which were better left unexamined.

McCain surely was counseled to choose a Biden-esq choice---some Republican senator or former appointee the chattering classes were comfortable with. But anyone who believes that Kay Bailey Hutchison of TX would enhance the McCain narrative just doesn't get it.

The McCain narrative is he isn't a comfortable establishment Republican and doesn;t much mind what their opinion is.  His electoral challenge was two fold. He needed to invest the Repblican rank and file in this narrative and he needed to link his narrative to that of contemporary swing voters in swing states.

Tim Pawlenty addressed this ; but the principal here decided to go bigger. That too, was a narrative choice--that he would buck conventional wisdom in a big fashion and not along the margins. And in choosing a running mate whom he must have known would be controversial, McCain basically screamed "maverick" from the rafters.

John McCain chose to gamble on his narrative and as of this morning, won the bet.  Barack Obama refused to place a wager and went with the house.  

Narratives matter. Not so sure about all the pundits out there.