New York's next Senator?

Just one year ago it would be hard to have imagined the obscure Lt. Gov of New York, David Paterson, having the power to make or break a national level political career.

But with Eliot Spitzer and now most likely Hillary Clinton out of statewide office, Governor Paterson now gets to decide who will be the next great NY state politician.

The Albany Times-Union has a story about the choices facing Governor Paterson. He has taken his own name out of contention, but there are plenty of ambitious Democrats eager for a move up in the world. http://timesunion.com/AspStories/story.asp?storyID=742556

A few crass political calculations come to mind here. Appointing Attorney General Andrew Cuomo removes a possible primary opponent to Paterson. Having failed in 2002 to win the gubernatorial nod, Cuomo may try again; but as of yet Paterson's ratings are pretty good and he obviously would have a huge bloc vote supprting him in a primary race. 

The other element here is the 2010 NY Democrat ticket violates the time honored "balanced ticket" approach.  David Paterson and Chuck Schumer are both from NYC; which casts less than 30% of the statewide vote.  Therefore there will be great interest in considering an upstate/suburban candidate; especially as Daniel Moynihan and Hillary Clinton were perceived as non-NYC candidates and the state legislature is now controlled by NYC Democrats.

The other demographic concerns are that the huge white Catholic bloc in NY (which frequently votes Republican) may not have a prominent statewide Democrat candidate in '10; nor is there a woman incumbent seeking re-election statewide for the Dems in '10. Hispanic  political figures are also arguing it is time for a statewide Hispanic officeholder, but a candidate like Nydia Velasquez might struggle upstate trying to hold the seat.

Given those considerations, don't be shocked if suburban Albany Congresswoman Kirsten Gillibrand http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kirsten_Gillibrand    gets picked by Paterson. She fits all the necessary balancing factors as an upstate catholic woman, who has a centrist record for a Northeastern house Democrat (She is a Blue Dog). She also has been a fundraising machine in her races.   

Gillibrand would need to resign her Republican oriented house seat.  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district_election,_2008  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_20th_congressional_district, but we might do well to get a stronger candidate  for the special election than millionaire Sandy Treadwell, a rather low intensity figure.

One thing we should now be painfully aware of is the Democrats have stopped doing things for self-gratification that don't make political sense.  I think David Paterson will help himself with his senate appointment; even if it is perceived as yet another step away from vocal leftism.