Not so happy motoring: A challenge for McCain's Michigan-Ohio strategy

Let's face it, with headlines like this it's no wonder the "wrong track" number and the level of consumer confidence is abysmal.

GM shares plunge on bankruptcy fears

The company faces so many problems, a Merrill Lynch analyst says, that bankruptcy isn't out of the question. Here's why it also may be unlikely.

Now for all you free market Ayn Rand types, this is a big deal.  The ripple effect of such an event would be massive and unpleasant. And after the Fed's weekend rescue of Bear Stearns it would be hard to explain to working people letting this place go toes up.   

Now I have no particular brief for the management, the shareholders or the UAW, whose chronic myopia led to this debacle. But let's be real, were this to happen the Bush adminstration would be blamed. 

In 2006, the President said the car companies needed to manufacture "a product that's relevant" and that his administration has discussed new fuel technologies with the nation's top two automakers. I have no idea what the Bush team has done to assist Detroit in this effort, although I would suggest this deficiency exceeds their abysmal message delivery. 

So, now that a GM bankruptcy is being bandied about, what does it mean for John McCain considering he MUST win either Ohio or Michigan? (No one since WWII has won without winning one of the two; the only time Ohio voted for a loser was in 1960 when JFK won Michigan).

*It means he must add an industrial agenda message along with Iraq.

Stating as Mac did in MI during the primary "most of these jobs aren't coming back" is accurate, but dismissive. At this point, a candidate who has a credible plan to save what's left of the U.S. auto industry is what is needed.

Promoting NAFTA is not the answer to this problem..

* It means he must find a decisive way to break with Bush economic policies

Perhaps Gore or Kerry's economic agenda would have accelerated the decline. For this region, talking up capital gains taxes et al is going to seem simply off topic.  Mac is going to have to put something on the table here and now --a specific policy item that Bush didn;t do for this industry that he will.

I would suggest that the "Drill Now" message is likely to be well received in these places. Clearly the domestic auto industry is not ready for $5/gallon gasoline. But more is needed than the refrain of "job retraining" and "supplemental umployment benefits". We are not going to outbid Mr. Hope & Change on who can throw money at the non-working. 

We are facing a Perot style economic situation with a Perot style angry electorate---the sort of voters who cast 26-29% for Perot in some rural/exurban OH & MI counties in 1992.

We need to emulate the Perot antiestablishment approach both in manner and message.  Otherwise the voters will simply conclude that we are facing an immediate problem, and with neither candidate offering a credible solution, default back to anti-Bush voting.

 

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Bear Stearns vs. GM

I understand it would take a little actual explaining but there was a difference between the repercussions of Bear Stearns going under and GM going into bankruptcy. And for what it's worth Bear didn't get off scot free. Investors lost tons and plenty of employees lost their jobs. But I do agree it would require a lot of good communicating from the Bush administration. That's a skill they have been seriously lacking.

P.S. I'm not one of those Ayn Rand types. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Drill Here, Drill Now, Pay Less is the ONLY message needed

The only hope for McLame in any state is the "Drill Here" message. Remember, Reagan cut through the clutter of politics by saying that in his first 100 days the priority would be 3 things: economic recovery, economic recovery, and economic recovery(the key issue of the 1980 race). McLame has the energy issue gift wrapped for him because Barry Obama has no ideas on it, other than the standard party line. Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but polls show that the price of oil as issue #1 nationwide, and that a majority is in favor of the "Drill Here" concept. Pushing that, along with dumping the cap and trade concept (the most Stalinist idea since socialized medicene) could be enough to give McLame a fighting chance.

P.S. Michagan's real problem isn't GM. It's a left-wing state government that's slowly been killing the state, and especially Detroit, for almost 50 years.

To harken Back to the Ayn

To harken Back to the Ayn Rand quip- ANWR and Drill Here drill now does is not a metaphore for the Wyatt oil fields.  LACK OF SUPPLY IS NOT THE ISSUE, INCRESING DEMAND IS.  For one, supply is controlled by an international cartel, so even if we drill here and now, the Qt. supplied will still be controlled from abroad. 

What McCain needs is to stay strong on the Environment and Energy at the same time.  This is a place where he can beat Obama.  That means new technologies and new forms of renewable and alternative fuels.  This means tax breaks and less regulation for inovators.  This is the future of energy policy.  Not a hole 15,000 feet into the ground subsidised by Section 45 of the tax code.  

Politicians that figure this out can support renewables directly from their campaign and score points on their opponents  check out  Carbon Neutral Politics

Feedback loop

Michigan is left wing in part because of the UAW's presence, which is because of the automakers...

Lets get real---!!!!!

 

Being a left wing or right wing state has nothing to do with--that is a moronic statement!!!  It has more to do with the strangle hold that the unions put on the auto companies years ago and the legacy costs and labor costs they are carrying, and then add in the high fuel costs that are causing falling sales and you have a perfect storm.
 
Now getting to drill, drill, drill --what BS---first the problem is there is not enough spare capacity of drilling equipment , oil rigs, and people to ramp up any significant crude oil for a number of years.  Second even if you could bring more oil on line there is not enough spare capacity to crack and refine the additional oil by refineries in any significant way for the short term.  High prices are our best defense against oil shortages and outages in the short term, long term the market will fix the problem!  And if either candidate says they can fix the problem soon they are blowing smoke!   As far as speculators on the long side of the oil market, their time is coming, market tops are dominated by of weak hands, weak minds and thin pockets. 

 

"No! We! Can't!"

Sheesh.

 

The only thing implementing a "Drill Now!"  policy would affect immediately would be the speculator's pocketbooks. Negatively. No one expects tankers full of oil immediately unless they're setting up a strawman to "argue" with. Refineries, tankers, drills, trained people - all 'part of the plan.' Again, unless you're opposed and assume that a bumpersticker slogan like "Drill here!" is supposed to be something you write in a four point font: "Relax regulations in the square denoted by the corners lat=xxx, long=xxx and lat=xxx, long=xxx. Reduce environmental impact study requirements for purposes of producing oil in these locations... "

There's also no portion of the statement that restricts any other energy production method either. Nuclear, solar, geothermal, coal, whatever. This isn't drill instead of doing anything else, it's drill dammit because you've been shamefully neglecting that aspect.

We aren't flipping morons. No one but naysayers pretends to expect oil output to double overnight. But you can't deny that a hard push on all aspects of energy production might affect where we are with energy supplies in five years.

Except the drillers ..

aren't drilling in all the places they can right now ... Do you know the oil companies have "leases" for many areas of the Gulf of Mexico that they aren't drilling right now(When they could be if they wanted!!)?

Extremely misleading

This sort of statement is very misleading.

If you were an oil company, and you had already paid for a lease (that will expire) on a perfectly good area, why would you want to pay MORE money to lease another area (that will expire) if you don't think that the newer area is more productive and economical?

You wouldn't.  And neither would the oil companies.

People criticize the oil companies for being profit motivated (which they are, naturally), but if you follow the profit motivation to its logical conclusion then this particular argument about current leases doesn't hold water.

This is a common trope of the Harry Reid brigade

However, anyone who took Earth Science 101 in college will remember that having access to the land and being able to access the land's resources are two different things.  Until you drill, you never quite know exactly what's down there, or how easy it is to obtain it. 

Think about a rancher in the Old West using a divining rod to try and find the right place to dig his well.  Sure, he knows there's water somewhere underground - but how deep is it?  And is it under porous or permeable rock?  And is the volume large enough to tap into, or is it a small underground stream?  Oil is another matter altogether.  When I was in college, we helped out during the summer by deploying seisometers or geophones in the prospect area which captured the data for geophysics students to analyze, looking for trends that indicated possible oil or gas deposits.  This is time-consuming, painstaking, can be severely limited by terrain, and you can get some really nasty bug and snake bites while doing it.  But I digress. 

The bottom line is, just because they've leased it doesn't mean they can drill it and obtain oil from it.  It's really not complicated - although it does get a hell of a lot of air time from Democrats for some reason. 

I've intercepted this communication from enemy HQ

"Dear MoveOn member,

From John McCain on down, the Republicans are pushing hard to channel the outrage over gas prices into support for pro-oil policy gimmicks like offshore drilling—gimmicks that would do nothing to solve our energy crisis.1

They think this is an issue that can win them the White House. And right now, it's working."

To the Left, offshore drilling isn;t a proven method of delivering energy in the here and now to consumers. It is a "political gimmick"

Notice their admission right now, it's working

GM Filing Bankruptcy Would Be Devastating To McCain

The best thing that could happen to GM would be if it did file for bankruptcy.  They have far too high "legacy" costs for pensions and healthcare.  Their labor costs are also astronomical..  A clean slate would be the best thing that could happen to GM if they are too compete inthe future.That being said, a bankruptcy would of course be blamed on Bush. 

Everyone in the auto industry knows that big SUV's were the only product American car companies could make a profit on.  McCain should connect the dots that higher energy costs will be the death of an american icon like GM.  Obama can go on and on about a new "green" economy under his Presidency, but people in Michigan won't buy it.

McCain has a golden opportunity here, and he should spend a lot more time in Michigan talking about energy policy than in foreign countries touting free trade.

People in MI won't buy it? ..

They know they have to change .. selling SUV's isn't going to cut it anymore .. Ford and GM both know it is change or die  ...  and yes .. it would rightly be blamed on Bush .. after all .. you know where gas prices were when he took office in Jan 2001, right?  And where they are today?  Where is that $20/barrel of oil that Rupert Mudoch said would happen?

People are scared of losing Industrial Jobs

They will run like Bunnies the the Torchlight Parade Candidate if he offers an "Industrial Policy".

McCain needs to Move First, and quickly.

Yes, I know, we're the Free Market party, but this is an election we're talking about. Ayn Rand never had to run for anything in her life.

Of course, this is the McCain campaign we are talking about here. Color me skeptical of anything constructive being done about it. 

McCain has outlined his 3R plan.. Let's push it and we all win!

The plan is here and we have it already in the works... I've noticed the "lefties" have actually been taking pieces of this plan and calling it there own. This was released as McCain's 3R plan a year ago, so we beat them to the punch. Besides, it can't work with Dogbama's push for LLC and Small Corporate mega tax increase plan. The investors will drop out of investing and send there funds overseas if Dogbama takes the White House.

JOHN McCAIN’S 3R ECONOMIC PLAN 2008
Abbreviated version
 
Republican Candidate John McCain with a progressive outlook, comes through for America with his 3R economic plan. In the persona of Theodore Roosevelt, McCain’s plan just makes sense.
 
NUTS AND BOLTS of the plan are simple.
 
The US needs a separate tax revenue source before it can move away from fossil energy fuels which supply hundreds of billions of dollars in taxes for state and federal agencies.

This move from fossil fuels to clean, affordable energy can only be done in one of two ways.
1. Halt all projects paid for with taxes at the pump and other fuel taxes, OR,
2. John McCain’s Economic Plan involving the 3R’s, Rethink, Reform, Reinvent.

Here is the John McCain 3R solution.

The US needs alternative taxes if we are to drop the petrol products tax and utilize new alternative fuels and new power sources. This is where the taxes will come from.
 
McCain’s 3R is about technical, closely monitored and rapid hands on training from pros to create new pros. Thousands of currently-job-displaced “once leaders in the manufacturing arena” will be asked to train and play instructor rolls in the 3R plan.

Paid, of course, as these new leaders will help create a whole new style of prosperous America. A massive restructure providing thousands of new American MFG companies means millions of new jobs for infrastructure alone.

1. RETHINK: America must see globally on what America is capable of in our current state of technology, engineering and meet the demands that face the world.

“RE-Think” the basic job goals involve the dwindling retirement, health care and social security plans that are failing Americans. With a strong base and a higher Gross Domestic Product (GDP) America has a new bargaining chip in the way we live and the ways we retire.

Private Sector framework is in place and current laws allow the 3R to happen. The Progressive attitude of John McCain to get things done by crossing party lines will resurrect America.

 
2. REFORM: The American people must demand higher quality products and less restricted trade routes for Made in USA components. We will lead the way of MFG again!

The USA will reform its dead manufacturing base to create the most innovative and green-engineered products possible. We will compete in a world market along with other high quality products. Our Private Sector teams are making this reality now.

3. REINVENT: America and Americans must reinvent themselves to reach and maintain these standards and by sheer American ingenuity, control the world’s marketplace in the competitive manner, as the USA has always been proud to be #1.

Americans are going back to McCain’s 3R-schooling program where they are paid to reinvent their skills and learn new skills to design and lead their personal LLC, Corporation or joint venture company. That’s easy enough to comprehend and just as easy to implement.

The 3R plan is designed as a six-month rapid advancement system. Graduates may return for additional skill enhancements from time to time, or step up after new advanced training in executive management.
 New jobs are the mainstay for Creating a new guard for Social Security.

While manufacturing is a very important part of this plan, thousands of other new businesses must to be created to meet the new surge of 3R manufacturing industries to create a new era of prosperous Americans.

Initial estimates of 1 in 5 students will begin his or her own company and drive even more Americans into a viable lifestyle with real jobs, real benefits and a retirement to look forward to.
This 3R plan will be done without costing taxpayers (or the government) additional funds. America has the means to follow through with John McCain’s 3R plan, ready and in place across the USA. The buildings we need sit vacant for the most part. By assuming leases on abandoned stores and factories across America with MC-3R schools and mini-manufacturing training centers, the USA made products can be sold and support the stores. Building owners write off the loss in taxes over a few years if they donate the space!  
                               
This is the new place for financial speculators to invest!

The speculators who first drove the economy with mortgage investments and most recently with crude oil investments have a better arena for their investments. America as nation of industrious individuals who want to work and want to succeed will make them huge profits. The supply of eager Americans with ideas and dreams to prosper is limitless.
 
Although the thousands of new businesses manufacturing USA Made products is exciting enough, the real excitement comes from the massive amount of additional jobs that will be created to provide the new housing, new buildings, new parks, shopping, grocery stores, schools, government outlets and so much more.
 
McCain’s Straight Talk Decisive nature embodies a Progressive Theodore Roosevelt more than any US presidential candidate in history since the original Rough Rider blazed the greatest era of growth in America.
We need John McCain to lead our nation with the same type of change.
 
THIS DRAFT COURTESY OF:
 
John Lewis Mealer, Founding President of Mealer Companies

928-532-8191 office       928-205-7577 Cell
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