Scott Brown takes the lead in Massachusetts

Democratic oriented polling firm Public Policy Polling has dropped a bomb. Republican Scott Brown has taken the lead in the MA special senate election.

Buoyed by a huge advantage with independents and relative disinterest from Democratic voters in the state, Republican Scott Brown leads Martha Coakley 48-47

I've taken a lot of heat from trolls here about how this was a winnable race,; well, I would point all those trolls tonight to the Obama Adminstration's doorstep, as this was tonight's panic-striken communique. Evidently lying about the polls to their own supporters is now de riguer, however. 

 While the large majority of Massachusetts voters support the Democratic candidate, Attorney General Martha Coakley, special interests have poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars to mislead voters -- and the traditionally low turnout in special elections means this race could be very, very close.The stakes here are incredibly high. You know how hard we've fought and how close we've come to finally passing health reform. But also know this: To get the job done, we need Martha Coakley's vote in the Senate. 

Looks like Barack Obama has a lot more use for Martha Coakley than her own constituents 

Scott Brown needs our help to get over the top. Join the fight.


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Great News!

This is great news.  But this just means we have to redouble our efforts.  If the election is nail-bitingly close, it will swing to the Dems one way or another (IYKWIMAITYD).  Money bomb planned for Scott Brown on Jan. 11.

Remember those polls where Obama led McCain in Arizona?


...with less than a week before the election?

McCain won b 9%




But I thought Scott Brown's candidacy was futile!

Comparing Scott Brown to Barack Obama? In this context I suppose that's a high compliment

Remains, if you think Martha Coakley is as well liked in MA as John McCain is in AZ go back and enjoy whatever it is you are sipping.

PPP nailed NJ and VA.  They've been telling their co-partisans the party is getting the cold shoulder, but that's not a message the powers that be want to hear. 

"PPP nailed NJ and VA"

"PPP nailed NJ and VA"

I think they may as well nail it again. Just wait for their last poll before the election.

In 2008, most polls showed Obama leading McCain in illinois by 25 points. And that's how it turned out. Most polls projected a 4-5 point lead for McCain in Arizona. But he won by 8-9.

PPP is just one poll of about four recent ones. The average is a Coakley lead by 5-6 points.

I am claiming, she is more likely to win comfortably, by at least a weak double digit margin. There is also ENOUGH time for things to change. And i believe it can only be of  benefit to the democrat.


And the Boston Globe has a poll out today which has

Coakley up by 15 points.

And for all of you crowing about how PPP "nailed" NJ and VA, here is one from the way-back machine:

In a three way contest with Democrat Bill Owens and Republican Dede Scozzafava Hoffman leads with 51% to 34% for Owens and 13% for Scozzafava. In a head to head contest with Owens Hoffman holds a 54-38 advantage.

I'll happily accept all wagers.

Has Palin Spoken on this subject yet ?

I think Palin may keep Relatively Quiet on this Race.......although I'd have to live in Mass. to have knowledge of this race firsthand.  Because if Brown WINS without Palin's very loud endorsement, then they can't blame this one on her.

Besides, according to the State Run Media, Palin Supporters can't even spell Mass.. 

What's the Un-Employment Rate in Mass. ?  That may be a huge Predictor of any Political race.

And yes, I abreviate Mass. because I can't even spell Massachusetts.

Not sure

Special elections are difficult to predict. If the Dems can get their MNRs out to the polls, Coakley can win pretty easily. It will come down in a big way to GOTV, & Republicans should be offering rides to those who will vote for Brown.

The Brown Wave

Can Scott Brown win Mass? Sure; with people in an angry mood and economic problems weighing, I'd say many bets are off...

But it's also clearly optimistic to say that Brown has pulled into a surging win position already. Most polls don't reflect this; Mass Dems are quite effective with turnout, and I've yet to hear convincing arguments about where Brown works the Mass map in his favor - he's unlikely to take Boston, or, I'd guess, its wealthier northern and western suburbs. That's starting siginificantly down, and can't necessarily be made up by Western Mass and the South Shore. It's great that the democratic machine of Mass - which deserves considerable criticism for being especially rigid and controlling - gets the scare of seeing Brown actually have appeal. Closing the deal, though, is a different question... and I don't have the impression that this is anywhere near certain for Brown. And if he doesn't win... that's going be a fairly clear inidication that conservatives alone can't expect miracles to occur in the midterm elections. Unless there's real work to broaden the appeal of candidates from the right, Democrats may not be loved... but they likely will manage to hold majorities, even just slightly smaller ones, in both houses.