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Starting the General Campaign Right. Mac's best road trip
A few days someone made a suggestion about "Five Places McCain should go."
Well, it inspired me, and for the 4th of July I realized that Independence Hall in Philadelphia was a must visit (Yes, we know some other candidate made a briefly significant speech there this spring, and that would be great juxtaposition).
A candidate who will be stressing a lifetime of service to his fellow countrymen could have no better backdrop for a big rally celebrating the theme of patriotism and self-sacrifice.
But when McCain gets there and how he gets there is rather important. The most important stretch in this campaign may well be the 4-5 days immediately after the GOP convention in early September. At that point McCain will have the attention of the mainstream media.
So how do we take advantage of this? Well, the trademarks of McCain's campaigns have been bus tours. No need to change.
And directly between St. Paul and Philadelphia are four of the most critical states for the McCain campaign--Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
(FYI---I did some checking. The last man elected President without winning either Ohio or Michigan was Grover Cleveland in 1892.)
So, first thing after the GOP convention I'd send him on a bus tour directly into those key battleground states, because as Mr. Ruffini points out so eloquently --that is where the ball game will be won or lost.
So I got out Google Maps and went to work. I avoided a direct route on interstates through huge cities. Presidential candidates are bigger news in smaller towns and smaller markets. McCain will be more likely to dominate the Green Bay, Toledo or Lansing evening TV news than the Detroit or Cleveland broadcasts.
We also are not going to run well in center cities no matter what. There will be time to do the larger metro areas later. And critical to winning these four states will be maximising our non-urban vote. ( We overcame a 227,000 vote loss in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) to win OH; but we needed a strong rural vote in PA to make up for the 412,000 vote loss in Philadelphia, a better rural showing to offset the 343,000 vote loss in Wayne (Detroit) county; and failed to overcome the 117,000 vote loss in Milwaukee county by virtue of not doing well elsewhere)
And from a "visual" perspective the tour would do best going through Norman Rockwell style places in the heartland. The one "urban" stop--the end of tour rally at Independence Hall--is solely as a "visual" in PA's largest TV market.
So, my routing on this was to try and hit small towns in relatively well populated rural areas far from airports (where future hangar ralllies will occur), visiting communities that the campaign certainly would not get back to when the hangar rally to hangar rally phase of the campaign gets underway. I also tried to focus on congressional districts that Bush 04 underperformed (WI 7; MI 6 & 7, OH 16) and perhaps overperformed (OH 4 & 5).
The route in general goes east of St. Paul through north central WI via Chippewa Falls, Marshfield, Appleton and Manitowoc, where one would want to get to MI. North and west WI was not a strong spot for either Bush '00 or '04 or the Mac primary race. This is needed exposure.
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Comments
McCain should stop in Maryland
Many in Maryland believe that the 2006 Governor's race was lost by the GOP incumbent due to the unpopularity of Republoicans nationally. While the new governor is not up for reelection until 2010, frustration with the ruling O'Malley administration coupled with a McCain visit to Annapolis and/or the Eastern Shore could produce a surprise in November. In suggesting Annapolis and the part of Maryland ast of the Chesapeake Bay, I have taken into considerations the smaller media market beyond the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. vicinities. Additionally, however, Annapolis is where McCain attended the Naval Academy before his stint overseas.
It's not where he goes, It's what he says when he gets there!
McCain has a huge problem to overcome this cycle (rallying people) and as of right now that seems unlikely to change.
McCain's unwillingness to dominate the dicussion, and in turn, his opponate has rendered him effectivly nuttered! In this new gottcha politic he has to show the American people he's willing to do battle.
This sentment he's portraying that somehow he's too nice to engage is offputting to most people!
Case in point - the latest Obama ad "Dignity" containes an out and out lie that, if properly exposed by the opposing candidate, would certainly start the proccess of calling this mans judgment, character, and sincarity into question by the folks who aren't political junkies!
McCain's refusal to do so is a detrament to his campagin! Campaning as the "nice guy" will serve to do nothing but gurentee a defeat by a charlatan.
So it really matters not where he goes, it's what he says when he gets there!
Steven, it's almost as if Steve Schmidt heard you...
Check out today's WSJ article McCain Campaign, in Relaunch, Seeks Tighter Message Focus:
Pretty nifty, eh? Let's hope they can teach the old dog some new communication and persuasion techniques quickly without, as they say, actually changing the brand that makes him appealing to everyone except right wing talk radio and the Republican conservative base. Heh.
Ironman, I love your bus tour strategy. I was just thinking this morning about what great coverage McCain will get in Minnesota (with Pawlenty) from the likes of the Northern Alliance, Lileks, and Powerline bloggers which are going to be read and linked to by many other conservative blogs. And I think that having him end up in Independence Hall is very strategic during the month that the final draft of the Constitution was signed at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia. I'm sure you've already read that Obama's new strategy is to accept his party's nomination at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium, which will hold 76,000 people on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech.
No Virginia?
Route needs a reroute!
See Patrick's prior post
VA is playing defense, it's clearly on the Mac side of his normal best 270 electoral votes.
Clinton and Carter didn't need VA to win their elections--it's not a necessity for a Democrat to win
The two states which are a) most closely balanced in a 50-50 race and b) historically are "must win" in a national election are OH and MI (unless we go back to Grover Cleveland).
I believe Clausewicz said "if you try to be strong everywhere you are strong nowhere". Hence, the need for a obsessive focus on OH/MI.
Besides it's a long campaign. This was just the first trip. I'm sure a hangar rally at Byrd Airport could be fit in along the way.
Great idea
This is similar to my Big Ten Strategy that I've advocated. My only suggestion is that you reroute the trip through 1-76 in Ohio and PA. This way McCain could stop in places like Youngstown, OH and New Castle, PA. These places have voted Democrat in the past, but were not receptive to Obama in the primaries. To win these states, doing better in Rust Belt localities are a must.
I love the idea of a Drill Now photo op in Breezewood. Breezewood is the trucker's capital of the world. He could earn the support of those who drive trucks, a blue-collar group who are swing voters. Of course, McCain needs to get on board with the whole drilling movement.
Mac's already been to the Mahoning Valley twice...
and there's an airport near Warren. Yep, he needs to be seen there, but I was trying intentionally to hit the harder to reach places since as time dwindles he won't have a chance later in the race.