Starting the General Campaign Right. Mac's best road trip


View Larger Map

A few days someone made a suggestion about "Five Places McCain should go."

Well, it inspired me, and for the 4th of July I realized that Independence Hall in Philadelphia was a must visit (Yes, we know some other candidate made a briefly significant speech there this spring, and that would be great juxtaposition).

A candidate who will be stressing a lifetime of service to his fellow countrymen could have no better backdrop for a big rally celebrating the theme of patriotism and self-sacrifice.

But when McCain gets there and how he gets there is rather important.  The most important stretch in this campaign may well be the 4-5 days immediately after the GOP convention in early September. At that point McCain will have the attention of the mainstream media.

So how do we take advantage of this? Well, the trademarks of McCain's campaigns have been bus tours. No need to change.

And directly between St. Paul and Philadelphia are four of the most critical states for the McCain campaign--Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania.  

 

(FYI---I did some checking. The last man elected President without winning either Ohio or Michigan was Grover Cleveland in 1892.)

So, first thing after the GOP convention I'd send him on a bus tour directly into those key battleground states, because as Mr. Ruffini points out so eloquently --that is where the ball game will be won or lost.

So I got out Google Maps and went to work. I avoided a direct route on interstates through huge cities. Presidential candidates are bigger news in smaller towns and smaller markets. McCain will be more likely to dominate the Green Bay, Toledo or Lansing evening TV news than the Detroit or Cleveland broadcasts. 

We also are not going to run well in center cities no matter what. There will be time to do the larger metro areas later.  And critical to winning these four states will be maximising our non-urban vote.  ( We overcame a 227,000 vote loss in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) to win OH; but we needed a strong rural vote in PA to make up for the 412,000 vote loss in Philadelphia, a better rural showing to offset the 343,000 vote loss in Wayne (Detroit) county; and failed to overcome the 117,000 vote loss in Milwaukee county by  virtue of not doing well elsewhere)

And from a "visual" perspective the tour would do best going through Norman Rockwell style places in the heartland.  The one "urban" stop--the end of tour rally at Independence Hall--is solely as a "visual" in PA's largest TV market.

So, my routing on this was to try and hit small towns in relatively well populated rural areas far from airports (where future hangar ralllies will occur), visiting communities that the campaign certainly would not get back to when the hangar rally to hangar rally phase of the campaign gets underway. I also tried to focus on congressional districts that Bush 04 underperformed (WI 7; MI 6 & 7, OH 16) and perhaps overperformed (OH 4 & 5).

The route in general goes east of St. Paul through north central WI via Chippewa Falls, Marshfield, Appleton and Manitowoc, where one would want to get to MI. North and west WI was not a strong spot for either Bush '00 or '04 or the Mac primary race. This is needed exposure. 

Rejected alternatives were going thru far northern WI and the UP of MI and crossing the Mackinac Bridge. Lots of mileage but few voters north of Wausau. If Mac needs to do a UP event a fly in to Escabana, Marquette or Sault St. Marie is less trouble. The Google map program does not allow one to use the Manitowoc- Ludington ferry across Lake Michigan. For political purposes this would be a better route, since one could cross Lake Michigan there and then and run down the Michigan shore thorugh Muskegon to Holland. This also would take one large city likely to be visited again (Milwaukee) off the route and spend more time in rural MI which is a bigger target
 
Early fall on Lake Michigan ought to make for great "visuals", too.
 
Once in MI the route bypasses Grand Rapids (we'll be back) and traverses small town SW MI en route to the NW corner of rural OH.  The tour hits Kalamazoo, which was the one place Kerry won in SW MI. The route bypasses Toledo and heads south to cross Ohio on U.S. 30 through Mansfield and Ashland, en route to the river town of East Liverpool south  of Youngstown.
 
The largest city in OH this route crosses is Canton, which is sorta unavoidable unless one wants to go so far south in OH that a politically unnecessary crossing of WVA occurs.  Stark County is also the one OH county that switched from Bush 2000 to Kerry 2004. Once in PA this trip stays mostly on the PA Tpke for the last leg with the exception of a "Drill Now" photo op at the Breezewood truck stops----this trip is getting long and I believe Mac will either revisit much of this area anyway or move PA back down the target list, while it's clear OH and MI are going to be down to the end.
 
The "spanning the globe" approach to campaigning I think is less relevant to this candidate. He needs to press the flesh right in the places that matter---and as I've explained in my "Not so happy Motoring" post offer a direct solution to this region's pressing economic concerns.
 
So this is my patriotic road trip. Have at it!

 

0
Your rating: None

Comments

McCain should stop in Maryland

Many in Maryland believe that the 2006 Governor's race was lost by the GOP incumbent due to the unpopularity of Republoicans nationally. While the new governor is not up for reelection until 2010, frustration with the ruling O'Malley administration coupled with a McCain visit to Annapolis and/or the Eastern Shore could produce a surprise in November. In suggesting Annapolis and the part of Maryland ast of the Chesapeake Bay, I have taken into considerations the smaller media market beyond the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. vicinities. Additionally, however, Annapolis is where McCain attended the Naval Academy before his stint overseas.

It's not where he goes, It's what he says when he gets there!

McCain has a huge problem to overcome this cycle (rallying people) and as of right now that seems unlikely to change. 

McCain's unwillingness to dominate the dicussion, and in turn, his opponate has rendered him effectivly nuttered! In this new gottcha politic he has to show the American people he's willing to do battle.

This sentment he's portraying that somehow he's too nice to engage is offputting to most people!

Case in point - the latest Obama ad "Dignity" containes an out and out lie that, if properly exposed by the opposing candidate, would certainly start the proccess of calling this mans judgment, character, and sincarity into question by the folks who aren't political junkies!

McCain's refusal to do so is a detrament to his campagin! Campaning as the "nice guy" will serve to do nothing but gurentee a defeat by a charlatan.

So it really matters not where he goes, it's what he says when he gets there!

 

 

Steven, it's almost as if Steve Schmidt heard you...

Check out today's WSJ article McCain Campaign, in Relaunch, Seeks Tighter Message Focus:

John McCain will spend the coming week talking about the economy, but the Republican presidential candidate isn't expected to say anything new. Rather, he will repackage proposals he has already outlined -- ones the campaign fears nobody heard.

"We don't think we've made the case eloquently," Doug Holtz-Eakin, the campaign's policy director, said. The McCain makeover involves a complex task: How to control a politician best known for ask-anything town-hall meetings and long, rambling conversations with reporters on his campaign bus -- and, now, on his campaign plane, dubbed the Straight Talk Express.

A top adviser says they considered cutting back on those formats but concluded they couldn't. "It's John McCain, it's his brand," strategist Charlie Black said. "The fact he is engaging with average citizens and with reporters is part of his brand."

So the campaign will try to find ways to better manage what comes out of these sessions. Aides say they will push Sen. McCain for tighter delivery and to contain diversions -- if not completely eliminate them. One senior adviser said the message will be executed "crisply" from now on.

Until recently, Sen. McCain began town halls with his standard stump speech that touched briefly on a variety of issues, from immigration to the economy.

Now, most town halls will begin with a scripted speech wound around a topic of the day. Sen. McCain is then supposed to weave that topic through his answers and come back to it at the end. He will still take questions on any topic from audience members. But the campaign said it recognizes that most questions cover familiar territory, so the candidate's answers aren't likely to make news that will upstage the message of the day.

Aides say the extended sessions with reporters will continue. The rolling campaign-bus conversations have been limited because Sen. McCain spends much less time on buses than he once did. The time available is usually given to local reporters, who better reach voters in battleground states. But the campaign's new charter airplane is outfitted with an area suitable for similar conversation in the air with traveling national reporters.

Sen. Obama rarely has such open-ended, informal meetings with the media, sticking instead to short news conferences or one-on-one interviews.

The McCain campaign will also rely more heavily on surrogates for the candidate, a technique they say they have used ineffectively in the past. To keep control on the message, aides will carefully brief surrogates on specific talking points and then deploy them to reinforce Sen. McCain's message. Mr. Black says they want "more surrogates, more appearances, more air time."

Pretty nifty, eh?  Let's hope they can teach the old dog some new communication and persuasion techniques quickly without, as they say, actually changing the brand that makes him appealing to everyone except right wing talk radio and the Republican conservative base.  Heh. 

Ironman, I love your bus tour strategy.  I was just thinking this morning about what great coverage McCain will get in Minnesota (with Pawlenty) from the likes of the Northern Alliance, Lileks, and Powerline bloggers which are going to be read and linked to by many other conservative blogs.  And I think that having him end up in Independence Hall is very strategic during the month that the final draft of the Constitution was signed at the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia.  I'm sure you've already read that Obama's new strategy is to accept his party's nomination at Invesco Field at Mile High Stadium, which will hold 76,000 people on the 45th anniversary of Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech. 

No Virginia?

Route needs a reroute!

See Patrick's prior post

VA is playing defense, it's clearly on the Mac side of his normal best 270 electoral votes.

Clinton and Carter didn't need VA to win their elections--it's not a necessity for a Democrat to win  

The two states which are a) most closely balanced in a 50-50 race and  b) historically are "must win" in a national election are OH and MI (unless we go back to Grover Cleveland).

I believe Clausewicz said "if you try to be strong everywhere you are strong nowhere".  Hence, the need for a obsessive focus on OH/MI.

Besides it's a long campaign. This was just the first trip. I'm sure a hangar rally at Byrd Airport could be fit in along the way.

Great idea

This is similar to my Big Ten Strategy that I've advocated.  My only suggestion is that you reroute the trip through 1-76 in Ohio and PA.  This way McCain could stop in places like Youngstown, OH and New Castle, PA.  These places have voted Democrat in the past, but were not receptive to Obama in the primaries.  To win these states, doing better in Rust Belt localities are a must.

I love the idea of a Drill Now photo op in Breezewood.  Breezewood is the trucker's capital of the world.  He could earn the support of those who drive trucks, a blue-collar group who are swing voters.  Of course, McCain needs to get on board with the whole drilling movement.

Mac's already been to the Mahoning Valley twice...

and there's an airport near Warren. Yep, he needs to be seen there, but I was trying intentionally to hit the harder to reach places since as time dwindles he won't have a chance later in the race.