Influencing Democrats from the Right

Nate Silver shows that Arlen Specter firmly believes in whatever position will get him elected.  Specter certainly has principles; and if you don't like them, he has others.

During the August recess, Republicans will ramp up the Tea Parties and other protests in an effort to influence conservative Democrats not to vote for the Democratic health care legislation.

If the grassroots really want to influence the swing votes on health care, they should be organizing behind conservative Democratic primary opponents.

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Jon, this is the "McGyver" theory of politics

That we are resourceful enough to crete something we need whenever we need it.

I'm not versed in the internal dynamics of each of the 40 or so House seats we are talking  about but in places like NY 24, it's far more likely the critical mass to set up a viable primary challenge to Mike Arcuri would be found to his left, probably among college types @ Hobart & Cortland State, then to the less organized group of "Pataki Democrats" who generally only vote in general elections.

The only place this is liable to work is in one-party districts like the one in San Antonio where the Club for Growth weighed in on behalf of a moderate Democrat. Most of the Blue Dogs are in districts which have some serious indicia of Republican activity and they are playing for the general election.

Notice Arlen's problem is to his Left; the last guy in PA to win a Democratic primary from the right was Klink in '00 who was demolished by Santorum.  Had Evan Bayh suddenly woken up and become a Republican guess what, he'd have to adjust his behavior to avoid a primary challenge from someone like Mark Souder.    

Lovely Numbers

I'm glad in my heart that the Senator is able to be open and frank about his beliefs.  I always thought he was merely a political snake. Turns out he was merely a Democrat.

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As a Christian Father: "show me don't tell me"

I would be glad to stand behind them - really, really glad. But I've learned as a father to demand actions and not words. I am certain on the other hand that if they go liberal they will face conservative republican rhetoric; If we have learned anything from 2008 election, promises of not raising taxes on the middle class can not be taken to the bank.

On the other side of the political divide; there is a need to hold the GOP accountable for their actions. We have eight who have placed junk science in front of the needs of the job market, in front of human beings.

Conservative Democrats

I think part of the problem is that while the Tea Party movement is showing a lot of strength and putting a lot of pressure on members of Congress, I don't think they are seen as independent swing voters. If there's a Democrat on the fence about health care, I don't think Tea Parties will sway them. I get the feeling that the Tea Parties will vote against any Democrat, period. So why does it encourage them to vote with the Tea Parties on some issues?

I can't believe that would shock anybody

It's hard to believe anyone is naive enough to be shocked by that, or even surprised.  Does anyone actually think Congress, or any other branch, for that matter, really has interests in what they can do in office, rather than just a desire to stay in the capital? I think it's become obvious at this point.  For instance, Strom Thurmond - filibustered against civil rights - once again, used a filibuster against civil rights, in order to keep African Americans from being able to vote..  (And typically, State's Rights arguments almost always - not universally, but we're talking 90 of every 100 instances -  are about impeding civil rights.  Just about every time, but not always, but just about.) 

Arlen Specter might be being pragmatic - and since he's a career politician, that shouldn't be surprising, but let us not forget also that if Specter, Republican/Democrat, whatever, has been one thing since he began, and that is that he is a moderate above all else.  I think it's undeniable that the Republican Party has taken a pretty severe swing to the right in the last year, granted it's probably from sour grapes, but that aside, and when you have a climate like that in Party Politics where the idea is to back the Party's play, regardless of how much you might disagree, that is becoming toxic and foul, and you happen to be part of the moderate wing that doesn't mind cooperating with the other side...I'd think about leaving too.  That's something that American conservatives don't get about themselves when compared to the conservative wings of other governments - that they are, if you go by European standards, extremely conservative, almost fascist, and to fascists, they're liberals.  Not that I would make the statement that the GOP has a fascist bent...although they've lately been making the case for anyone who wants to make that sort of inflammatory statement for them...but enough of that.

The moderate wing of the GOP is kind of getting pushed aside, and I think it might be because the neocon and religious factions are starting to sense that they aren't as popular as they were in 2000-2005, and that the American people in the middle, and a lot of independents, are really losing faith in them.  They're seen as wanting to impose some sort of Christian totalitarian regime on the lot of us, without our consent, and do everything they can to keep the richest 10% getting richer, and drive the middle class out of business.  And if a party wants to capture the folks in the middle of the road, and the ones that could go either way, that kind of regressive platform really isn't going to get a lot of votes.  (It could be that in coming elections, the Libertarian Party is going to gain a lot more ground - and we could see a Third Party becoming a major player, for once.)

So what if Specter changed sides?  He's a career politician, and he wants to prolong his playing time as much as possible, be it as a Dem or not - and he very well could have been driven out because the Party he belonged to has made an environment hostile to moderates, or hostile to anyone of conscience, but in either case, he just might have the staying power to gain his seat again, as a Democrat.