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Is the Leftosphere mainstream?

Submitted by Jon Henke on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 09:51
in

Next Right diarist Warner Todd Huston challenges the Kos claim that the Leftosphere is "firmly on the mainstream on just about every major issue facing our country".  Huston is skeptical.

I'm not so sure that Kos is wrong, though.  There are two evaluation problems here:

  • "Mainstream" does not necessarily mean "majority", so what is the popular support percentage required to make a position mainstream?   

  • Polls suggest that 70% of Americans support Issue X.  Other polls suggest that 70% of Americans oppose Issue X.  Polls show state preference - but they are a poor proxy for revealed preference.

Bearing those problems in mind, is Kos actually wrong?   I don't see it.  Among the top national issues today, polls show that...

  • Majorities prefer universal health care.

  • Majorities think oppose the war in Iraq and want to get out very soon.

  • Majorities believe anthropogenic global warming is occurring.

 I'm sure there are more granular and specific items on which positions are reversed and they are in the minority, as well.  But we're generally talking a sizable minority, not a small minority.   The public "trust" for Republicans has eroded even on core issues like taxes and foreign policy. 

All that to say, while their reputation as bitter partisans and bomb-throwers is well-deserved, I'm not sure that they are actually outside the mainstream of American politics.   And if that's true, then it is a reality we need to acknowledge and address. 

So, make the case.  Are Kos and the leaders of the Leftosphere outside the mainstream of Americans politics?   If so, on what general major issues are they outside the mainstream?

UPDATE

Sean Oxendine makes an interesting point in the comments:

[their reputation as bitter partisans and bomb-throwers is] why they are outside of the mainstream.  Sure you can point to support for many of their public policy platforms (though on things like FISA, impeachment, etc, I'm not sure that you can).  For that matter, I can point to support for many of the public policy platforms of the Communist Party or the Constitution Party.  That doesn't place those groups within the mainstream.  It's a stylistic difference and the degree to which they are willing to take otherwise-popular positions.

Style is also one of the major differences between the Progressive Netroots and the Democratic Party establishment.   The Progressives want what Matt Stoller once described as "someone who would be with you in a political bar fight."   They want a Fighting Progressive.   

I understand that desire, but I'm not sure how an assertive, aggressive liberal plays with a public that, while often operationally liberal, is still often philosophically conservative/libertarian.   When Democrats make the tangible costs of their policies so visible, the public is more likely to teach them the difference between stated preference and revealed preference.

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Comments

Energy & the Surge

Submitted by lagomorph on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 14:43.

Thanks to Jeff Roberts, I am adding the Surge to the Energy topic because the Nutroots are on the wrong side of both issues.  Even people who hate the war are now at least admitting that the surge actually worked, and is making it possible for us to seriously consider standing down.  Energy is obvious - i.e. Dr. No, No, No and No - and both of those areas are where we can kick their collective butts.

You can get any answer you want from a poll.

Submitted by St. Louis Conse... on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 11:37.

They ought to ask people what they would expect with government run universal healthcare.  Do they expect rationing of services and care?  Do they expect to have freedom of choice when it comes to their providers?  (they won't).  Do they expect physicians and other providers are going to spend half their lives and a quarter of a million dollars to train themselves to be a doctor only to be a cog in some federal bureaucracy where they earn whatever the government tells them they will earn?

I don't think the lefty blogs are mainstream.  If they are.  If they truly, truly are, then we might as well pack up the tent and get out of dodge.  No conservative could EVER get elected in this country if the nutroots are mainstream.

Aside from the shooting, how was the play Mrs. Lincoln

Submitted by Sean Oxendine on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 11:45.

"All that to say, while their reputation as bitter partisans and bomb-throwers is well-deserved . . ."

That's why they are outside of the mainstream.  Sure you can point to support for many of their public policy platforms (though on things like FISA, impeachment, etc, I'm not sure that you can).  For that matter, I can point to support for many of the public policy platforms of the Communist Party or the Constitution Party.  That doesn't place those groups within the mainstream.  It's a stylistic difference and the degree to which they are willing to take otherwise-popular positions.

Drilling

Submitted by amerpun on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 15:54.

Majorities of Americans support increased domestic oil exploration -- the opposite stance of much of the leftosphere.

Update: Come to think of it, a majority of Americans take the right side's stance on gun rights, too. And the surge.

There is a difference between

Submitted by Jon Henke on Tue, 07/22/2008 - 17:17.

There is a difference between "minority" and "outside the mainstream".   If, for example, an issue splits 51/49, that doesn' t make the 49% "outside the mainstream."   They may not be a majority, but a position with 49% approval is fairly mainstream.
 

Don't be Silly...KOS as mainstream...? Net Roots ? LOL..

Submitted by 4speed on Wed, 07/23/2008 - 00:52.

Petraeus = Eisenhower...to some Extent......strategically speaking ...if nothing else.  

Mainstream Americans LOVE a WInning General in wartime, Americans support the Military, Americans LOVE America.

Daily KOS along with MOVE on and Net Idiots do not support the War, Petraeus, and a WInning Strategy.  

It's sorta like Pelosi's "Mandate"....she got elected by the Same 159,000 local San Frans....not a National MANDATE...San Fran is NOT mainstream, nor was Pelosi's election a Mandate.

All Politics are Local, and at that level everypone is "Mainstream"...Nationally Speaking, Flyover Country is Mainstream based upon Square Miles...NY is Mainstream based upon NY City....Mainstream is Relative, my dear man.

Left framed issues vs Newt's List

Submitted by Freedoms Truth on Wed, 07/23/2008 - 18:16.

  • Majorities prefer universal health care.

  • Majorities think oppose the war in Iraq and want to get out very soon

  • Majorities believe anthropogenic global warming is occurring.

Kos is showing his weakness not his strength. Those are left-framed questions. If that's all he's got then its a weak hand:

1) Healthcare: The first one is a vague nebulous goal that could be better achieved via conservative reforms (like allowing people to get health care insurance from any state). Do Americans want CHOICE in health-care? Do Americans want a healthcare system where NONE of the healthcare system is managed by the Government, SOME of the healthcare system is managed by the Government, or ALL of the healthcare managed by the Government? If conservatives make the debate about choice, access and OVERALL COST, they might win. Voters will approve of medical savings accounts, malpractice litigation reform,

2) I am a strong supporter of the war and I 'want to get out very soon'. The real test is giving the real choice: Get out now and risk defeat in Iraq, vs stay in Iraq until we achieve victory.

My understanding is that polls more or less show an even split. I googled and foud this July 2008 result, so its up to date:

An ABC-Washington Post poll of 1,119 adults shows voters divided 50-49 percent for a timetable for withdrawal. However, the Quinnipiac poll of 1,725 likely voters finds 51-43 percent against a timetable.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Democrats and Republicans fell predictably for and against withdrawal, respectively, and independents tilt away from a fixed date of withdrawal, 56 to 40 percent.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/07/15/polls-show-support-for-afghanist...

So on this issue, Kos is wrong. Its not a winner for them right now, but a 50/50 issue.

3) I am a climate skeptic and even *I* will say that there might be *some* influence from CO2 on climate. That's not the nub of the issue. It left-framing to say "is it real or not". It would be better to poll out. the real question is: Is global warming (a) an imminent and major crisis, (b) a long-term concern, (c) not a concern at all, (d) a hoax.

The (a) answer, the Gore view is IMHO held by a minority of people. Most of us are between (b) and (c) and if you get informed enough you will know that it is nearly impossible for it to be (a) and Gore is a fear-monger.

Some of the groups, like AFP, shared recent poll results that showed clear majorities (like 70%) are AGAINST the Boxer bill that would do the cap-and-trade taxation and regulation. People will NOT pay more for the supposed "fix" to global warming. Maybe they figured out that it costs too much and does little to fix anything. So people are thinking: maybe its real, but is it worth regulating the whole energy industry and increasing energy prices over? Nope! Again, not a winner for the Kos crowd.

Newt Gingrich can give you (in fact DID give us, in "Winning the Future") a list of other questions, that were 70/30 polling questions, that were winners for conservatives.

http://www.amazon.ca/Winning-Future-Century-Contract-America/dp/1596980079

I forget the list per se, but one was simple: English as our national language. Another was about fundamental tax reform ,which is also popular.

There are many other issues where we have clear majority support for the 'conservative' position:

Favor bilingual education or immersion?

Favor or oppose racial quotas and set asides?

Drill here, drill now vs oppose drilling?

Picture voter ID for or against?

majorities oppose gay marriage.

Higher taxes and more spending vs lower taxes and less spending? (that generic question polls about 60/40 for the lower taxes position, I believe)

what about some other "right-framed" questions that would show that Kos is wrong. There are many questions out there.