Political frustration and concern trolls

in

This kind of story is tiresome.

The Drudge Report banner headline on Friday morning reads, "Poll: 75% of Texans would vote to stay in USA."  What's troubling is not that 75 percent of those polled by Rasmussen Reports would vote to remain in the United States; what's troubling is that 18 percent of those surveyed said they would prefer that Texas secede.

People say a lot of inexplicable things in response to polls.  25% of people say animals deserve the same rights as humans; the percentage of people who say they go to church weekly bears no relationship to the percentage of people actually in church weekly.  Is it really shocking that a certain percentage of people vent about things like this, especially in polls?   Consider these results from old Daily Kos polls...

Of course, those mean nothing more than "people like to express a sense of frustration at, and independence from, the federal government."  And that's generally healthy.  In fact, it was built into our Bill of Rights.  Everybody gets frustrated when their side is losing; and, as we see lately, the winners often turn into concern trolls.  Don't take them too seriously.

5
Your rating: None Average: 5 (1 vote)

Comments

17% Rule

I have a rule that I use when dealing with polls, the 17% rule.  On any opinion question with two possible responses, about 17% will say anything, even if the other answer is obviously right.  This drops by half if the wrong answer makes the answerer look bad, and increases by half if it makes the responder look good.  This is a pretty simply rule, but it is surprisingly robust.  If this poll didn't say that ~17% of Texans wanted to secede, I would have assumed the methodology was flawed.  As far as I'm concerned, 17%=0.

I hate to say it Jon, but you

I hate to say it Jon, but you lost a lot of credibility when you compare a randomized phone survey conducted by rasmussen, with web survey on the front page of daily kos.

What I think is troubling is not that 18% of texans wish to secede, but that those 18% are probably all McCain and 3rd party voters. Which means roughly a third of people who voted republican in 2008 fail to understand how a democracy works. I know you understand this better than most on the right, but when you lose the answer isn't to pick up your toys and go home. You need to organize, recruit better candidates, and ignore the fringe elements which only push the GOP to the right and alienate moderates and independents.

Don't write off this poll as nonsense. This type of thinking will be the end of the republican party.

Sounds like...

I hate to say it Jon, but you lost a lot of credibility...

Concern trolling.

What's even funnier

is that none of those polls were featured on the front page. Front page posts get 10-25,000 votes. These were from ignored diaries. So I guess it's now okay to conflate a scientific poll with random web polls buried deep inside ignored Daily Kos diaries. 

Distinction without a difference

It doesn't matter whether the polls were scientific or not - and indeed, I would argue that the Texas polls was not "scientific".  It had methodology, sure, but what somebody says to a pollster bears litle relationship to how they would actually behave.  I tried to mostly include polls that had a non-trivial number of votes (I left out a number of polls that only had 10-50 votes).  And I didn't suggest that it represented your views or those of everybody there.   There were merely evidence that members of that community were also doing pro-secession venting.

But do you really think that a shortly-after-'04 front page poll on whether Blue States should secede would not have seen a significant number of people voting 'yes'?  There was plenty of lefty venting about exactly that at the time.

Regardless. it was not intended as a slight to you, that community or even to the people who were venting.  It was simply evidence to illustrate the point about how people behave in polls.  In that context, the nature of the methodology isn't really that important.  I understand that the percentages cannot be taken as representative of the community who feel that way, but they can be taken as evidence that there is a bipartisan tendency to vent like that when things are going badly.

Credibility

Jon, please.

You know very well the difference between a random-sample poll, even when done by Rasmussen, who has been out to lower Obama's averages since befre he won the Election, and a KOS poll of KOS people on the KOS website with questions put out for snark or amusement. 

You need to find a better argument.

Find me ONE governor who said he would support secession from the Union during Bush's 8 years in office.

You seem intent on missing the point.

People can be snarky with pollsters, too. It's one thing to tell a pollster that you want to secede. It's quite another to actually want to secede.

But that's beside the point. Liberals are actually more likely to endorse secession than conservatives: 

http://althouse.blogspot.com/2008/07/22-of-americans-believe-any-state-o...

Note that in 2007 13% of Vermonters (mostly liberals) wanted to secede from the union.

gov. dean's state? why am I NOT surprised?;-)

above poster is worried about how kooky your elected representatives are getting -- which is somethign to worry about.

I agree with you, no need to worry about such a small amount of crazies (when they get up to 33%, call me. that's american/french revolution territory)

End of both parties

www.desmoinesteaparty.com organized, recruiting, allienating no one, accepting all Americans.

Texas secession

Take it from a Texan... the vast majority of us ARE in favor of secession!!  If the far-left liberal koolaid drinkers think they'd be better off if we did, the feeling is certainly mutual.  When you start feeling the sting of paying for Obama's social welfare, Marxist agenda you'll change your tune. Considering the fact that the average Obama voter reads on about a 7th grade level, I'm sure none of you have a clue as to who Saul Alinsky is or have ever heard of something called the "Cloward-Piven Strategy".

Like the saying goes... "Socialism is great until you run out of other people's money".  Keep thinking that you can forever support those who are too damned lazy to work for a living.  Keep thinking that the way to improve our economy is to spend our way out of debt. (Which, by the way, equates to being on the verge of bankruptcy and continuing to borrow)  Keep thinking that your grandchildren won't be paying off this huge debt.  Your stupidity never fails to amaze me.  Those of us who aren't products of the "No Child Left Behind" fiasco KNOW what's happening in this country and, if we survive to see 2010, we'll voice that knowledge at the polls.

 

 

Are you a plant?

Seriously, are you an undercover leftist bent on marginalizing the right by spouting this ridiculous nonsense and alienating the non-crazy?

Texas is a drain on the country

The USA would be better off without Texas.  They drag down our culture, absorb our tax dollars, and contribute nothing.  I vote yes on the Kos poll.

[the idiots are out tonight]

Who do you think refines that gasoline that goes in your tank, Slappy?

This must be the crazy-attracting thread

First the last guy with his "obama = communist" shtick and now you.  Texas absorbs our tax dollars to about the same extent that all the other states do.  They contribute lots.  They are part of our culture, and certainly don't "drag it down".  If you've ever wondered why right-wingers are always accusing liberals and progressives of being elitist, and drawing lines between "real america" and places like San Francisco and New York, just read your comment and the answer may come to you.

spoiled

Sure Texans pay taxes, but they get more from Washington than they send.  And what they do send isn't good for us: gasoline and Bushes.  Texas couldn't make it as a country.  They have no eduction system, they don't even believe in evolution.  Everyone in Houston who does anyting useful is from somewhere else. 

Governor Perry is like a spoiled kid -- threatening to run away if he doesn't get his candy, not understanding that his parents support him.  Well, it's a big world.  Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Awww, somebody's jealous

Sorry Igm, you can't live here. You are a bitter, bitter little person. Pitiful really.

By the way, Texas is a net contributor

Receives .94 for evey dollar paid to the federal government.

Your facts are spoiled, Igmiot.

Its also the 15th largest economy in the world. We're doing something right down here!

http://www.taxfoundation.org/research/show/266.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Texas

A list of states that are even larger contributors but yet

A list of states that are even larger contributors than Texas but yet have governors and citizens who manage to restrain themselves from threats of secession.

  1. New Jersey ($0.61)
  2. Nevada ($0.65)
  3. Connecticut ($0.69)
  4. New Hampshire ($0.71)
  5. Minnesota ($0.72
  6. Illinois ($0.75)
  7. Delaware ($0.77)
  8. California ($0.78)
  9. New York ($0.79)
  10. Colorado ($0.81)
  11. Massachusetts ($0.82)
  12. Wisconsin ($0.86)
  13. Washington ($0.88)
  14. Michigan ($0.92
  15. Oregon ($0.93)

 

Great insight

Thanks for recapping my info.

The only takeaway is that Texas doesn't get its fair share of tax dollars. If all states (including yours) were like Texas, the country would be much more efficient. But you are of the "entitlement mentality" and feel you are owed a part of my paychecks. How sad for you.

Stupid post, but meets expectations from the source.

Texas is like... China of USA? LOL

"Texas has the second biggest economy in the US." ~TonedeafDrill

List of states by gross state product (in billions)

1) California 1,813

2) Texas  1,343

3) New York 1,303

4) Florida  735

5) Illinos 610

[...]

 

Yeah like China is the "second biggest economy" in the world(in billions USD)

1 Flag of the United States United States 13,844
2 Flag of the People's Republic of China People's Republic of China 7,034
3 Flag of Japan Japan 4,292
4 Flag of India India 2,997
5 Flag of Germany Germany 2,812
6 Flag of the United Kingdom United Kingdom 2,168
7 Flag of Russia Russia 2,090
8 Flag of France France 2,068
9 Flag of Brazil Brazil 1,837
10 Flag of Italy Italy 1,788
11 Flag of Mexico Mexico 1,486

USA and China: G2? LOL

The real kicker comes in when you consider the per capita GDP(PPP), China is placed at #90 in the world with per capita income of $6,000, while USA is the first big country(follwing small rich countries like Qatar, Luxembourg, Singapore, sweden) with $47,000.

 

Here's USA Gross State product(nominal) per capita in USD:

1 District of Columbia 124,363
2 Delaware 59,288
3 Connecticut 50,332
4 Massachusetts 46,721
5 New York 46,617
6 New Jersey 44,885
7 Alaska 43,748
8 Colorado 41,798
9 Virginia 41,702
10 California 41,663
11 Minnesota 41,295
12 Nevada 39,813
13 Washington 39,616
14 Illinois 39,514
15 Maryland 39,161
16 Wyoming 39,130
17 Hawaii 38,083
18 New Hampshire 37,666
19 Oregon 37,633
20 Texas 36,920
21 North Carolina 36,489

Texas is #20 in USA? LOL

[BTW, Texas'  USD 36,000 per capita GSP(nominal) would be below, or just above the US state average of 47,000 per capita GSP(PPP).]

That would put Texas at #26 in company of Spain. Enjoy.

How many tax dollars does China take in? LOL



The real kicker comes in when you consider the per capita GDP(PPP), China is placed at #90 in the world with per capita income of $6,000, while USA is the first big country(follwing small rich countries like Qatar, Luxembourg, Singapore, sweden) with $47,000.

-Remains of the brain

 

Try to keep up with the conversation. Nice tangent though.

It pays to have a president

It pays to have a president and vice-president from the same state. Texas has oil companies, it has Halliburton that benefited from the war. A lot of money came to Texas. It is just a fact, no matter what political party you have, if you have big people in big places, you will get the money.

I noticed that with Columbus, Ohio. Leslie Wexner (The Limited) has poured billions into one section and it shows. So Texas has been well represented, while the manufacturing areas are devastated as jobs go to China and Mexico. Too bad Bush didn't pay attention what was going on in the rest of the nation. 

That's actually a decent point.

How many billions of dollars will be poured into the coffers of fiscally irresponsible states that strongly supported Obama? I'm looking at you, California.

Not trying to be a right-wing hack, here. New England is a lovely part of the country, even if I disagree with their politics. Ditto the Upper Midwest. And Bush does deserve some blame for pushing cheap credit.

But the California-bullshitter economy has crippled the national credit market. It's not cute anymore. They need to clean up their act. It's a shame we don't have a president with the courage to tell them to "drop dead" like Ford supposedly did to NYC. The rest of the country is going to forced to hurt in order to bail out CA.

I know, McCain wouldn't have been much better.

mccain would have been worse.

wall street is holding the world hostage.

That said, I love the northern states, Montana through Washington To Maine.

And california is the 9th largest economy in the world, so when it goes down, it really does have the potential to take the rest of us with it.

 

even without the riots.

From next door in Louisiana, I'll say this...

...folks in Texas don't have a whole lot of interest in going along with what they see in DC right now.

Obviously it would be a tragedy if the Union broke up, however it might happen.

But that said, if Obama's cap-and-trade program were to become law, here in Louisiana it's been estimated that 50,000 jobs in the oil and gas industry would disappear into thin air - not to mention a great deal of the state's wealth, a significant portion of the state government's revenue stream and an untold residual effect from the virtual disappearance of the state's largest industry.

Texas is every bit as invested in the oil and gas business as Louisiana is - if not more so. They have a more diversified economy, but you're talking well into the six figures in terms of job losses there arising from the cap-and-trade plan.

I would imagine the effect on Oklahoma's economy would be just as bad. Mississippi and Arkansas would also take a huge hit.

You simply can't inflict that kind of economic pain on one of your states by government fiat and not expect those states to look at the situation and say "the hell with this." I'm not going to get into a long discussion of comparing the oil and gas business to slavery, but from a simple economic standpoint, the abolitionist movement was seeking to impose economic turmoil on a similar scale to what cap-and-trade would do to the energy business in the aformentioned states. Folks don't want to lose their fortunes and they're likely to fight for them.

Obviously the South was wrong where slavery was concerned. But Texas, Louisiana, Oklahoma and the others are not wrong for producing domestic energy for the rest of the country. And if this administration attempts to cast us as such on the basis of flimsy nonsense like "climate change," the reaction it will produce is going to be just what you're hearing out of Texas.

 It is interesting to see the

 It is interesting to see the complaint on cap and trade. Not that I agree or disagree with it. I have talked many times about "free trade" and how it destroyed the middle class jobs in the Midwest. Cities and states are going broke. While we can't have protectionism, the republicans has given no answer to the consequence of this action. 

So both sides come up with crazy ideas and they screw up the country. It all comes down to the right management of the country, instead of ideology or some other panacea. We have lost some 1 to 3 million manufacturing jobs in the Midwest. It feels like Appalachia, there is no right turn as you come up with no answer. The only answer is to go to college and move to a big city. Small factory towns are drying up just like the old silver and gold mining towns. 

I have sat here in Ohio and watched all these years Bush saying "free trade is good" and all I saw is plant closings. Is it any wonder the Midwest voted for Obama? And by the way, trickle down did not trickle down. 

apology accepted

Obama flew around the world apologizing to every one for every thing from terrorism to global warming. Even tho America does more than any industrialized country on the planet to fight climate change.  I think the people of this planet better get a clue and start taking care of her better. BUT global warming is not the horrifying monster that the left pushes it to be. If it were you would think they would give up the lears and limos. Not to mention the mansions and massive boats and suvs.  Our current administration is using every single crisis "real and fictional" to push through a left wing political agenda that will stifle this country's growth at all levels. This will effect the north and south. I say NO MORE! The American People say NO More! The Tax Day Tea Parties are just the beginning. WE THE PEOPLE must band together network and organize. Please contact your local Tea Party organizers and see how you can help.  Tell others get involved and help us stay involved by going to www.desmoinesteaparty.com and share your ideas strengths and hope to help us network all the Tea Parties together. Only if  We The People work together as one will there ever be real change. The Tea Parties were a great success! Keep this alive and growing and in 2010 change will come.    

I can understand your

I can understand your concern. I guess the best thing to do is have a political party that will manage the country right. If it doesn't manage right then the other party comes into power. The republicans had their chance and the country is a disaster. Even Donald Trump has said this past week that Bush left the country in a mess, and the whole world is a mess. So if you want to hold the power and have it your way, then come up with the answers. 

What a stupid comment

Yeah dumbass Igm, you could do without Dell, Southwest, American Airlines, Continental, Fed Ex, Baker Hughes, Cadbury, J.C Penny, the entire oil services sector.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Texas_companies

You, Igm, remind me of what one of my mentors here in Texas told me 29 years ago:" the world's eat up with stupid son, and therein lies opportunity". 

Keep the stupid comments coming Igm, we'll keep capitalizing on your stupidity.

*that* is a stupid comment

Do you have any idea of how many of those companies would immediately relocate if Texas seceded? Most of them, since treason would generally be bad for business.

Also, all of the professional sports teams would leave as well.

And frankly, without the protection of the US military (which would have pulled their bases out of the state), it would not surprise me if Mexico claimed the valley up to Corpus at the first sign of provocation.

Secession would be a complete and total disaster for the state.

Yup, it sure was...

silly.

Silliness aside - first of all, US airlines can not be run by, majority owned by or HQs located in foreign territories so Continental & American would have to move back into an American state or give up ALL their US slots to United, US Air and others. (BTW FedEx is HQed in Memphis)

And the first, easiest weapon in the arsenal against secession is a TOTAL TRADE EMBARGO. the rest of the US can live without Dell a lot longer than Dell can live without the rest of the US. And closing down the TX ports to stop exports anywhere else would take the US Navy a week.And Texas Oil?? puhhleeez - what century are these Longhorns livin in anyway?

I think TX consumes about 4x the oil it pumps out of the ground.

Perry is a circus act, just like his predecessor (who couldn't make money in oil even when there WAS oil in Texas LOL)

p.s. the worst of it would be...

that the Sooners would be a shoe-in for the Big 12 crown again this year!!!

I'd much rather watch Tebow and the Gators take on the very talented Colt McCoy and the Longhorns at the Rose Bowl in February '-)

Duh

Texas has the second biggest economy in the US. And no one in Texas is arguing for secession. Period. Exclaimation point.

Yeah. Bush and Cheney NEVER made money in Texas.  Put away the crack, before the crack puts you away.

Yeah Ray

Please read the comment I was repyling to and try no tot be such a dumbass.

This whole argument is stupid on your part. Perry never said he supports Texas seceding from the U.S.A. and you know it.  The point is, Texas is a net contributor, the second biggest economy in the country.

So say what you want. The facts speak for themselves.

And Larry Craig has a wide stance, and George Allen was just

And Larry Craig really does have a wide stance, and George Allen was just being welcoming....

and Next Right Ninny uses a flawed comaprison . .

you are using "my word against yours" examples.

You can't twist Perry's words to say he wants Texas to secede. Unless of course you have knowlege of an actual plan he is putting in place to accomplish that goal.

You see, the difference here is you would have to have the facts on your side.

The clear meaning of Perry talking about the possibility

The clear meaning of Perry talking about the possibility of secession in front of a crowd that was chanting "Secede!" is as obvious as Allens racism and Craig's gayness. Despite what you obviously think about them, voters aren't that stupid. His career is going to end as swiftly as the other two.

So its obvious that Perry wants Texas to secede?

Got it. Your prediction is duly recorded. I'll be waiting for him to bring his plan forward. Thanks for the incredible insight.

There is nothing new

about Republican politicians making promises they can't deliver on. Expecially the ones from Texas. Remember George W. Bush, December 2001, promising that he would get Osama Bin Laden?

I remember BHO

promising to end the Iraq war and close Gitmo. LOL

It is now April. He has been on the job since late January.

It is now April. He has been on the job since late January. Give the man a little time - it is going to require a Herculean effort to clean up all the messes that GWB left behind.

Ha!

Is that grape cool aide?

is that a racist comment

or are you just ignorant?

(honestly curious)

Ridiculous

#1) Like I have any idea what color anyone is on this blog

#2) Can you list the "racist flavors" of cool aide?

What race am I? What race are my kids? (I'll give you a hint-my oldest didn't check "caucasian" on her college application).They love grape cool aide.What are you calling me? Or them? I picked their favorite and the only one I buy. Or are you just ignorant?

 

not that it matters...

but I'm white. now you know! ;-)

It's rather common knowledge that blacks prefer Grape kool-aid... to the point where racist people do the same thing with that as with watermelon and fried chicken.

And now you know!

(seriously, these are the things people had to explain to ME, so I figure I ought to perpetuate the favor by passing it along -- and yes, I freely admit that I was probably being paranoid by thinking that you might have meant something racist by that. Ya seem honest enough to admit it if you were).

What's your ethnicity?

Actually

I am, as you suspected white.

But, my kids are half hispanic (their mother is Central American), and look much more Mayan than european. And they identify with that part of their heritage to a large degree. You may be interested to know that the "flavor identity" you are talking about goes beyond the black community. South of the border fruit flavored soft drinks sell at a much higher rate than they do here -Uva, Fresa, Naranja,Manzana- all  compete much more favorably with colas than they do here in the U.S. 

But, back to the original point, I picked grape beause thats what my kids drink. And, if I were trying to be racist, I would have picked Strawberry, as that flavor indexes much higher among black consumers. (I kind of do consumer insight work for a living)

 

 

 

ooh! now I'm the one feeling culturally ignorant

All to the good, I'll learn something today!

All I had heard of south of the border is Inka Kola (which, as you might expect, is Peruvian).

I rather gather you know more about consumer preferences than most racists. ;-)

Thanks for the info, now to the wikipedia with me!

Perry is damaged goods

Perry's nativism play has backfired. He was wimpering around like a wounded animal today trying to back off his shameful comments. He has been spanked and he has tarnished his fellow travellers with the traitor tag.

Panarin's thesis

Frighteningly enough, it fits right into Igor Panarin's list of scenarios for the end of the US. 

Nothing but posturing.

This is nothing more than political pandering by Governor Goodhair as he tries to shore up his street cred with the base. He is scared witless by KBH, and is going to spend the time between now and the primary showing that he's a *real* right-wing crusader.

God help us all.