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Politicians are not serious about the deficit
President Obama "will order members to identify a combined $100 million in budget cuts over the next 90 days...". Granted, as Greg Mankiw says, this is the government equivalent of a cup of coffee, but it does signal that the Obama administration recognizes the public outrage over spending. [UPDATE: I think Heritage gives this budget cut entirely too much credit; in fairness, they probably just don't have a smaller dot]
Is this the first sign that the Tea Party protests are having an impact? Maybe. But politicians cannot be allowed to get credit for fiscal responsibility by making trivial noises about spending cuts. This is a very easy thing to measure.
So, how can we measure how serious Obama is about long term fiscal responsibility and deficit reduction? Watch how Obama funds programs that are not successful, or that do not have clear metrics for success/failure. Recall a point that Obama made in his inaugural address.
The question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works ... Where the answer is yes, we intend to move forward. Where the answer is no, programs will end.
Here's my prediction: programs that Democratic groups are inclined to like will almost never end. They will be given additional funding. For those programs, the answer will almost never be "no".
If Democrats cannot make serious sacrifices (actual, significant cuts) in the spending their coalition groups want, then you can be pretty certain that politicians are unwilling to share in the sacrifices they say we all need to make. This is a very measurable thing. They need to be held accountable, both by the media and by voters.
The same thing goes for Republicans, too. We can't dig our way out of this fiscal hole by "cutting waste". We certainly can't afford any significant tax cuts at this point. Proposals that are not politically viable are not "serious"; they are grandstanding for the base. If Republicans want to be taken seriously, they need to start talking much more seriously about the trade-offs and innovative approaches necessary to address the long term deficit and tax system. For starters, that probably involves means-testing entitlements.
- Jon Henke's blog
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Comments
Clear Metrics:
1. Lack of riots in most major metropolitian areas. This provides a clear metric for whether or not the unemployment funding is doing it's job.
but don't expect anyone to bother to tell you that...
Bullshit
Lack of a meteorite crushing your skull does not incline me to endorse the twisted logic of your comment.
now, now, we all know you're in favor of
instituting martial law in order to prevent an orderly transfer of power from GWB to BHO.
That is what you're calling for, when you call for no bailouts, whether you like it or not.
Let's do the Time Warp Again!
Actually...
... I believe that most of the readers of this blog are thinking, "C'mon, meteorite!"
Most are too genteel to say it.
But don't let that stop you.
Go fuck yourself.
And take your false accusations with you.
are you familiar with Just In Time?
Have you bothered to analyze Wallmart's supply chain?
Or are you just ignorant of the potential national security issues associated with a collapse in internal shipping?
And how on earth do you suppose....
... whether Wal-Mart purchases their products from a magic bunny rabbit that accusing me of supporting martial law must naturally follow.
Does Rising Tide blog from some insane asylum somewhere? She certainly has way too much time on her hands, and requires professional care.
Buzz off, idiot.
most of our major cities have three days food supply.
No More. We can tell from New Orleans what happens when there isn't enough food and water...
Taking an extreme anti-TARP position (aka the first disbursement ONLY -- when there was a run on the money markets and a whole lot of shit was collapsing all at once) is equivalent to asking for martial law, as the entire economy would have broken down under the weight of the crisis.
In short, this was some serious shit going down -- serious enough to turn King Henry white as a sheet.
I'm hardly his biggest fan, but he and Congress did the right thing then and there.
The alternative was martial law. Therefore, if you support "no bailouts never", then you support martial law, in that limited circumstance. Also, you would support cancellation of the 2008 elections... as it would have taken at least a month for all the kinks to work their way out of the system.
Actions have consequences, and to assume otherwise is the height of tomfoolery.
False equivalence
btw, "martial" means "military."
ya, I know.
when the populace starts rioting in earnest, the general idea is to send for the national guard, or some other military unit to take control, keep order, and pass out the food in an orderly fashion.
this is the general plan...
Once again....
affirming a negative.
Riots never happened, therefore anything whatsoever is necessarily true.
Riots never happened, therefore Obama shits blue oil. Otherwise, riots would necessarily occur.
Riots never happened, therefore Joe Biden is the reincarnation of some parrot that spent all of his life sitting on a pirate's shoulder. Otherwise, riots would necessarily occur.
Riots never happened, therefore Rising Tide can eat shit and consider it kin. Otherwise, riots would necessarily occur.
Do you know how many riots happened in the past year or two?
... just wondering, as you seem to be showing a remarkable ignorance of cause and effect.
Well,
I was in New Orleans for the MLK Day riot.
So, how many people do you suppose constitutes a riot?
I'm quite sure that you are an authority on ignorance, though I seriously doubt your capacity to pronounce it on others.
I do suppose that you're missing my point.
sorry, that's probably my fault. There have been over a dozen countries who have had riots int he past two years caused by food shortages.
the idea that food shortages would cause riots in America is not much of a stretch at all...
Lots of other nations....
...also use wood as their main source of fuel.
So where's the corollary?
The US grows too much food, even under drought conditions.
THe supply chain would have to be interrupted for the urbanites to concern themselves with it.
People will still buy milk at $4/gal.
Isn't that what I've been talking about, luv?
Just in time creates extremely fragile supply chains, where most of our population is dependent on the trucks running on time.
I'm asserting that if the bailout hadn't been passed, internal American shipping would have collapsed, on a temporary basis -- due to banks and other financials hoarding money (that's part of the run on the money markets) and being unwilling to make loans. If they won't make loans, then you can't roll over the loans you already have on the books -- and if you can't pay your outstanding loans, which most businesses can't, you go bankrupt. Bankrupt companies can't pay their people to ship things.
Fer Christs' Sake, the shipping industry is already using plans designed for Nuclear Winter:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2008/12/freight-haulers-prepare-for-nu...
Insuffucient
There would need to be a disruption in production.
Shipping alone wouldn't do it.
btw, if that was your point in the first place, you certainly have an overly-oblique manner of bringing it out.
no, I have an overly tangential mind,
prone to bouts of "you didn't bother explaining that!".
My apologies.
We have three days food supply in most major cities, and less than one day's food supply in Manhattan. So if the trucks didn't run for five days, we'd have riots.
Most of our food-producing regions are nowhere near the cities. I know that Pittsburgh doesn't have nearly the food capacity it would need... and I'd venture to say that Philly is the same way -- if you dramatically contracted the shipping, you couldn't use local (or quasi local) products to bridge the gap. And PA is a fairly big deal agricultural state, we aren't talking about Boston.
BTW, I hope you're stocking up, just in case this swine flu goes bad.
You Just Don't Listen
Obama is a fiscal Conservative. Really. He is a centrist, a problem-solver, a pragmatist.
Go ahead and rant all you want, while Mr. Obama schools you on the basics of mainstream Economics 101, not the Laffer-curve nonsense taught at the Limbaugh Heritage Enterprise Institute for Shizzlenomics.
The latest polls continue to show the American people understand his strategy and approach, and endorse his methods and tactics by 3-1 over the Republican "alternatives".
Methinks that train done left, and the Right is going to have to deal with the consequences.
Typically, the first McConnell-Cantor-Boehner-Gingrich-Rove GOP FAIL solution is "Let's you and him get on a horse, ride like the wind, and keep dynamiting the traintracks so it'll be stopped there 'til we catch up!!"
I leave it up to the reader to interpret who will get the blame from the passengers.
Who will the passengers blame for this runaway train?
Methinks the Engineer. Generally there is a breathalyzer test involved.
BHO RR has promised to halve the inherited $1.3 Trillion dollar deficit by the end of his first term while providing income tax relief to 95% of Americans. Only individuals making more than $200,000 per year and families making more than $250,000 per year will be burdened with additional taxes. So passing the hat to the passengers will not be an option.
Now the same president that told us that $9 Billion in earmarks in the last spending bill was "last year's business" is directing his cabinet to "look for $100 million savings where they can, because eventually "it will all add up to real money, even here in Washington."
So it will be very interesting to see the "surgical "removal of billions upon billions of dollars of pet programs, $100 million dollars at a time.
Choo choo!
You still don't get it, do you?
Once again: The difference between a DEFICIT and the NATIONAL DEBT:
The NATIONAL DEBT is the accumulated deficits. Once a deficit occurs, like this year, the underlying expenses and structure of the Government's finances that CAUSED this deficit: Interest expenses, war expenses, loss of tax revenue from continual, irresponsible tax cuts, exploding drug and medical costs from unregulated HMO's and big Pharma, among many other CAUSES for this deficit must be addressed. Add to this the fact that under Bush and Paulson, the entire foundation of the Western World's economies almost crashed, cataclysmically and catastrophically and beyond repair, requiring almost superhuman efforts and collaboration to keep standing.
This deficit is like an ongoing monthly shortfall in your finances, and sometimes, like when you lose your job as a buggy-whip waxer, or when you find yourself going to the gun store and blowing half your paycheck every week like we do with Defense spending, you have to spend big money to retrain and remarket and reinvent yourself and your expenses so you can earn and keep decent money coming in again.
Arguments from the Right such as yours, that the only way to address this deficit is to slash spending and cut taxes, are completely unrealistic and offer nothing more than posturing and pandering.
What was Bush's budget in 2009? Show me just how much larger you think Obama's "breathalized Engineer and runaway train" is, OK? And show me what you think would have happened had we done nothing and allowed the rest of the world to join Lehman Brothers.
And please, biased, rhetorical WSJ opinion pieces cannot be used as examples of impartial reporting of Obama's Administration.
Thanks for needlessly pointing out the obvious
I think we all understand the difference between a deficit and the national debt. I was addressing the deficit. Didn't mention the national debt (which will triple under the Obama plan)
And the "biased, rhetorical WSJ opinion piece" quoted Obama. You see there is a differnce between an opinion and a quote. An OPINION reflects a personal belief or judgement. A QUOTE is a repeated statement or passage. So, if you want to believe that Obama hasn't said he would cut the DEFICT in half by the end of his first term, knock yourself out. It is a fact though.
When did I advocate cutting taxes and slashing spending? You somehow know that that is my opinion? You are wrong. Obama promised a tax cut to 95% of Americans. I never would have done that, not in this economic climate. That's foolhardy. Nor would I have spent $750 billion on a "stimulous" program.
And when are you an the left going to get over this "what would Bush have done" mentality? Bush is gone, sport. The future belongs to Obama. And he will be judged on his perfomance, not his performance VS Bush's performance.
indeed. but seriously, the WSJ is a corporatist rag
and you do yourself no good service by not telling me whether it's their editorial section (eep!) or their news section (at least more solid). I'd say the same thing about the NY Times, fwiw.
Point taken
mea culpa.
Here's the numbers
And no, Obama's numbers do not rely on saving 100 million here and a 100 million there.
http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/assets/fy2010_new_era/A_New_Era_of_Respons...
It relies on rethinking priorities, making difficult choices, and restoring confidence in our Economy based on Obama' s four pillars: Number one is Healthcare Reform, then Energy Reform, Education Reform, and Fiscal Discipline Reform. He has laid this plan out several times, and leading Economics figures like Peter Orszag and Cristina Romers and many others have as well.
It is a solid, well-thought-out, detailed, multi-faceted approach, and if current poll numbers are any indication, it has met with the approval of a broad majority of the American people.
Who would have thought that a lowly, inexperienced, "community organizer" who cannot function without a teleprompter, could actually direct, galvanize and lead this effort?
One thing is for sure: If this turns into the resounding success that we are working and hoping for, Americans will support Obama and Democratic Progressive initiatives for generations.
What will the GOP have left? "No, he DID shake his hand ghetto-style, I tell you!! After he BOWED to the Saudi, and his wife put her hands on the Queen!! No, I'm not kidding!! Impeach him NOWWW!!!!"
You had me right up until that final sentence
Some people can't let their light shine without dimming someone else's. I have never seen a group of people that can't take "yes" for an answer. I would recommend you look forward (like Obama) and enjoy the successes that you are so certain will come. I hope you are right. As I said before, I'll vote for Obama if he's right and I'm wrong.
But I would also recommend you let the petty shit go. "The Right" have legitimate concerns and a right to express them. Somehow I don't think you'll be happy regardless of what happens over the next four years.
Jim Dandy: not so dandy
LoneStar Bill, just ignore Jim Dandy. He does nothing but repeat lefty talking points. Really. If there is an astroturfer on this blog, it's most definitely him. I'm just wondering which partisan leftist hack he works for. Podesta? Olbermann? Maybe he is Olbermann!
You are right
And I see you are already on to Next Right Ninny's MO as well. I think she is Garafalo.
I don't get it
Why do righties harp on lefty celebrities so much? Yeah Garofalo is stupid. Last time I checked, she's not writing bills or in charge of any policy.
Neither is Rush Limbaugh
Or Rick Santelli. But that doesn't stop the White House from addressing them directly from the podium. Or saying that Rush Limbaugh is the head of the Republican party.
I agree, it is absurd for Robert Gibbs to directly address righty celebrities from the podium.
legitimate concerns or not...
Being too Macho has cost this nation a bundle of money.
6 to 1 return on investment for rehabilitation programs for criminals (mainly because keeping them in prison costs a metric shitton).
On the international stage? Being unable to civilly greet Chavez or our allies in KSA? It's ... seriously loony. Particularly when Bush was kissing the Saudi King at some point.
Sure. Of course He's a Fiscal Conservative....
This President has become the Debt Colector for the Chinese People's Republic and you blithely think that people are going to continue to put up with it forever.
You have failed to realize one central fact of politics: the party in power is responsble for the consequences of being in power. You own the debt that you have decided to create.
Bush is back in Texas. Eventually, the scapegoating of Bush, like the Gang of Four campaign, will die like the last dog.
Yeah. Let's take another look at how Obama is schooling us in ECON 101 again, just so we can say that we learned from The Master. I want to make sure that my daughter and her kids don't question the Divine Wisdom of the Nomenklatura when they are paying off their Chinese Loans.
What are those magic words? "Bush's Fault?"
No."Jesus wept".
obama's fiscal conservatism
Section9, thanks for providing actual data as opposed to talking points. But you're wrong on one count: Obama is a fiscal conservative. Well, in liberal land he is anyway. After all the deficit will be ONLY $1.75 trillion this year. To a leftie, that's downright stingy!
bank nationalazation
the new plan is to swap the loans to citi for common stock of citi which will make the goverment a 36% owner of the voting shares...wall street reacted today.. of course the same chicanery could have the goverment owning gm , ge, boa, wells fargo, . this explains why government won't allow regional well financed banks to return government money which they are clamoring to do.
goldmann just returned their share.
wtf are you talking about?
most of the top 19 banks in the country are insolvent.
HUNDREDS of banks have gone bankrupt within the past year.
Where are these regional well financed banks??? You say California or Ohio and I bust a gut laughing, mind.
Please tell me
..what you based your analysis that it was the bank equity swaps that "Wall Street reacted today" on?
Could it maybe have been something else that spooked the market? Oh, I don' t know. Maybe the fact that out of Bank of America's profits report, Merrill-Lynch accounted for a huge chunk? Or maybe the fact that Ken Lewis, CEO at BoA, said the banking sector is still " facing extremely difficult challenges" and set aside 13.4B to cover mounting lending losses?
Hmmm..maybe the fact that The Conference Board said Monday that its monthly forecast of economic activity fell 0.3 percent in March and has not risen in nine months? Maybe it was that economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected a 0.2 percent decline.before the opening bell.
Who knows? But no, you jump to the conclusion that it was "bank nationalization!!" that tanked the markets.
Were you even around when the Government had to set up the Resolution Trust Corporation in 1991 to "nationalize" failing banks and liquidate their assets? It was a HUGE success, and actually ended up making the banking sector more robust and returning money to the taxpayers.
"...tax cuts at this point."
In a column about token spending reductions, you quote Greg Mankiw. Later in the column, you write, " We certainly can't afford any significant tax cuts at this point.'
You're incorrect, and here's why:
The administration is on a path to passing a "Cap-and-trade" scheme, which is a thinly desguised, but significant, carbon tax. The revenue from this tax will be hundreds of billions of dollars, and it has the power to derail the economy for years. It will permanently reduce economic growth and personal income.
My Representative, Rick Larsen, expresses no reservations about the economic impact of the legislation, but some about the ability of large players to game it more effectively than small players. Is there any more telling illustration of the corruption of this economic plan?
Mankiw is in favor of "Pigovian" taxes, which purport to consider the externalities that result from an economic activity or the use of a resource. His personal favorite is a carbon tax, and Republicans might at least propose it as an alternative to a cap-and-trade scheme, because it is far more efficient. The cap and trade scheme creates an enormous bureaucracy and huge costs of collection and compliance. The Republicans must at least force a complete debate about the economic consequences of cap-and-trade.
Here is where the tax cut comes into play. Republican should propose that the tax be levied in a revenue-neutral manner, with offsetting reductions in the corporate income tax, the FICA tax, or whatever tax they choose. The requirement should be that the proposed reductions be permanent reductions of marginal tax rates. They should be careful to argue that they are acting to protect personal incomes and promote economic growth. They should guard against the inevitable democratic response, which will be to implement a program to compensate those affected by the tax. That will result, of course, in larger permanent government, and more distortion of economic activity.
If we allow Obama's programs to pass as proposed, then the State becomes permanently larger, and taxes as a percentage of income become larger forever.
Obama's budget is crafted around huge tax revenue increases, and the Republicans should propose alternative programs that are market-oriented and include tax rate reductions as an alternative to every program, and should market those programs aggressively.
Why am I seeing nothing as simple as this in the Republican response to democrat power grabs and lurches to the left?
carbon taxes
This part: good.
This part: not so good.
IMO this only makes sense if you think Republicans ought to concede the principle that carbon should be taxed. Personally I don't want the Republicans to give up on this fight quite yet. The science is not settled; all the scary forecasts are the results of MODELS, not actual, hard data; and even if humans are the problem, the way to fix it is not through increasing the heavy hand of government, but through technology, innovation, and means that preserve liberty, not destroy it.
Besides, politically speaking, what do Republicans have to gain by going along with the whole carbon tax idea? THIS is what got them into trouble to begin with - when they start acting like Democrats-Lite. I don't want Republicans to propose "sensible taxes" as opposed to Democrats' "outrageous taxes", I want Republicans to hold the line on taxes period. After all what does TEA stand for again? Taxed Enough Already.
So then you must be pleased
So then you must be pleased about the tax cuts you'll be getting under Obama.
the 'maybe' tax cut
Oh, you mean the $10-a-week reduction in tax withholding that may or may not constitute a real tax cut? Yeah, about that...
Was it Keynesian stimulus? Nope.
Will $10 a week do anything to change anyone's economic behavior? Nope.
Will it cause mass confusion come tax day next year when mass quantities of people realize that the reduction in withholding wasn't really a tax cut, and this time they aren't getting a refund back? Yup.
Does it allow Obama to superficially meet his campaign promise of a "middle class tax cut" while he backhandedly raises everyone's tax burden through a cap-and-trade scheme, increased long-term taxes through excessive borrowing, and inflation? Yup.
At least with Bush's tax cuts you knew exactly what you were getting, even if you disagreed with them.
But in truth, Nando, I don't think you care at all about any of this. I just think you are trying to play a gotcha game. You are trying to needle me into some sort of contradiction, or "agreeing with Obama" about something. This may constitute legitimate debate strategy over at Daily Kos but they are just tiresome nonsense to me.
I'm just trying to remind you and all the others
No, I'm just trying to remind you and all the others who are imagining a future filled with "economic enslavement" that you are barking up the wrong tree.
baloney
So your principled argument is, that when Democrats spend record amounts of money and pile on record amounts of debt that someone, somehow, will have to pay for (like us, and our children, and our grandchildren, etc.), and those who pay will end up paying A LOT; however, since Obama & Co. were nice enough to throw in a pseudo-tax-cut of $10 a week, we should not be concerned at all about deprivations of economic liberty? That we're "barking up the wrong tree"? Really? Really? And you're honestly truly not just trying to play a gotcha game, trying to needle me into some stupid contradiction based on pedantry rather than principle? Oh, I see clearly now. Thanks.
I am neither trying to needle nor entrap you.
I am simply pointing out that the problem at hand is the contraction of the economy and the solution to it is government intervention. If your reasoning is that "every child born today will inherit a debt of ____" (fill in the blank with your favor figure) the you also have to accept that the same child also inherits an annual income stream with which to pay that debt.
yeah right
No you aren't - you responded to a discussion about CARBON TAXES with some snarky comment about "so you must really love Obama's tax cuts then, huh?" You wanted to turn this discussion into some conservative entrapment scheme. You offer snark, not reasoned argument.
If you really want to discuss the perils of umpteen trillion dollars of government debt, start your own discussion.
Calm down.
Calm down! You said:
And that is what I was responding to. That is it. No evil plan.
of course it is Keynesian stimulus...
just like extending unemployment benefits. KEEP PEOPLE SPENDING is a good thing, according to Lord Keynes.
Inflation does not increase long-term taxes, to my knowledge. You wanna drop me some links about that?
Inflation...
..is long term taxation -- didn't you know?
ex animo
davidfarrar
Good call
As interest is the price of money, so is inflation the cost of budget deficits.
cap and trade or carbon tax
the idea is to allow the innovation to occur using private investment. Is this a good thing? I don't know...
I think we'd all rather see innovation be the solution -- and we're all confident that it WILL be the solution, eventually.
Models are all we got, chemjeff, even gravity is just a freaking model. What you mean to say there is that they are extrapolations of models, which are inherently more unpredictable than interpolations. And that's a fair critique. But from all that we've seen so far, from the hard data, the models have been lowballing the impact, not inflating it out of proportion. Take the demise of one of the Antarctic ice shelves, for example. That wasn't predicted for at least a few years.
Your complaint would make
Your complaint would make sense if the horse hadn't already left the barn. In the house, this is a done deal. My rep (R. Larsen, D, WA) is not at all concerned about the economic consequences. That tells me where the leadership is, and where the votes are.
Only by proposing a carbon tax that makes relative economic sense and is clearly presented can the Republicans derail the whole concept, as being economically disastrous.
Standing against the concept in general, since it has already been sold, is a recipe for disaster. My idea is that you say, "yes, but..." and then proceed to demolish it.
Your only hope is the Senate. There is no energy and no clear presentation of alternative ideas on our side.
chemjeff
You're preaching to the converted, but I spend enough time on forums to know that rational arguments concerning carbon are exercises in futility. Given the present political climate, I think that a revenue-neutral bill passing the house would be an absolute coup; a political triumph for the right. I'm not kidding.
There is hope in the Senate, however.