Reading the Clinton Tea Leaves

Soren Dayton pointed out that the Clinton's have sounded a few odd notes and failed to sound a few other seemingly important ones in recent days.  A few more observations.

  • After almost a solid week of wall-to-wall coverage - after announcing his VP selection and in the very middle of the Democratic Convention - not only is Obama not getting a bounce....John McCain is.  That can't be comforting for Democrats right now.  This is their highlight reel.  If this doesn't give them a bounce, what will it take?
  • A number of top Clinton people are leaving town before the Obama acceptance speech, and while Hillary Clinton will attend the speech...Bill Clinton will not attend
  • Hillary Clinton spoke to a women's group on Tuesday and "urged attendees to back the Democratic Party", but "did not mention Barack Obama’s name once " during the event.
  • Suitably Flip notes an omission.
  • From Clinton's speech, as prepared Those are the reasons I ran for President. Those are the reasons I support Barack Obama. And those are the reasons you should too.

     And as delivered: Those are the reasons I ran for president, and those are the reasons I support Barack Obama for president.

  • So, Hillary Clinton accepted a speech that had her calling delegates to vote for Obama (and released the text to the press)...but pointedly left that exhortation out at the last minute (when it's absence would be very noticeable)?
  • And now Hillary has released her delegates, but refuses to tell them to vote for Obama, saying "I am not telling you what to do."

What to make of all this?  I have two theories.

  1. Selfish - The Clinton's may simply be trying to hedge their bets.  Remember, before Hillary Clinton withdrew, she and her her team were making the argument - both privately to the Democratic establishment and delegates, and then publicly to the press - that only Hillary could win the general election.  "Obama really can't win the general election", they claimed. 
  2. The Clinton's still believe their vision for the Democratic Party is superior to the Progressive's viciously anti-DLC approach.  By not tying themselves too closely to Obama's success or failure, the Clinton's could emerge relatively unscathed and in a strong position to say "we told you so" to the Left.  This would give them leverage to re-establish themselves as the leaders of the Democratic Party. 

  3. Head Fake - Hillary's pointed refusal to encourage her delegates to vote for Obama is unusually conspicuous.  It's the sort of thing you do intentionally to focus media attention on the story.  Is Hillary trying to create a high-profile moment during the Convention in which she rejects the Republican PUMA storyline and encourages her supporters to vote for Obama?   I'm a bit skeptical - it's a very risky high-wire act - but it seems like the sort of theatre the Obama campaign might orchestrate.  (Bonus: Hillary gets to look like the hero)

 UPDATE:  As I post this, the news breaks that Obama has been officially nominated by acclamation...

Former rival Hillary Rodham Clinton asked the convention delegates to make it unanimous, the culmination of a painstaking agreement worked out between the two camps to present a unified front.

 

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