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Should Sarah Palin go 3rd Party?

Submitted by Jon Henke on Mon, 07/06/2009 - 22:47
in

What will Sarah Palin do next?  So far, the punditry has outpaced the evidence, so I won't speculate about her intentions.  However, the most interesting theory - floated by one of Glenn Reynolds' readers - is that Palin "will try to start a new Tea Party" to challenge the Republican Party.  There are some very important problems with this.

  • First, Reynolds is correct that ballot access is a major barrier.  His reader suggests that Perot won 19% of the vote, and it would be very significant is Palin helped a Tea Party win "20% of the contested seats in 2010".  But winning 20% of the vote is not the same as winning 20% of contested seats.  To accomplish that, you would need to win a lot more than 20% of the vote in a lot of elections, but a brand new party just would not have the campaign infrastructure needed to do effective GOTV on anything like a large, reproducible scale.  Certainly not by 2010.

NOTE: The Barry Goldwater and Howard Dean campaigns suggest there is movement-building value even if you lose...but note that the were insurgents operating within their Party, not revolutionaries going outside of it.

  • Reynolds argues that Palin would "draw almost entirely from Republican voters".  That is correct and a serious barrier.  But Palin draws almost entirely from Republican voters because Palin does not appear to differ a great deal from the Republican Party.  If she has some grand vision to sustain a new movement, she hasn't actually explained it or otherwise gone beyond standard Republican talking points.  A 3rd Party would be redundant.  Immediately.

There could, in fact, be an exploitable gap in American electoral politics.  A lot of voters just don't map consistently on the liberal/conservative spectrum in both economic and social matters.  There might be room for a fiscally liberal, socially conservative movement (i.e., Christian Democrats).  Or perhaps it could be a fiscally conservative, socially liberal movement (e.g., Goldwater).  What you can't do is build a new movement around being exactly like Republicans, except super-sincere.

Another Instapundit correspondent hit closer to the mark.

I think the third party talk is ill advised. I think Palin just needs to try and stick her finger in the eye of the Republican establishment. She can do that by supporting/encouraging challengers to incumbents, where appropriate, in the Republican primaries.

The next leaders of the Republican Party will be the people who kill some sacred cows, make a lot of Republican enemies and force the movement itself to evolve past this comfortable equilibrium.

Reform starts at home. So far, nobody has had the guts to take on the sacred cows.

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Comments

The sooner she disappears

Submitted by Repack Rider on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 02:40.

The better for everyone.

Palin is self-indulgent, lazy and not particularly adept at anything I have been able to determine.  She is a public relations disaster for all but the uncritical Palinbots, and she can't be trusted to even know the message, much less stay on it.  Her value is symbolic at best, because she brings zero intellect along with a habit of confrontation at the expense of accomplishment.

Now she's seen Paree, and she likes it a lot more than that boring old job that she campaigned for and agreed to do.  Then the job turned out to be really hard and it keeps her away from the adoring crowds, who despite their passion are still a minority of a minority and will never turn a national election.

The "maverick" theme has been beaten to death with zip to show for it.  Even quitting has been somehow glorified as a "mavericky" decision rather than cutting and running.  That decision alone should signal the end of anyone allowing her a position of responsibility where her presence on a regular basis is part of the gig.

Palin is an impediment to everything she participates in, and her best position is on the other side of anything you want to actually get finished.

Repack, why don't you repack those talking points...

Submitted by Michigan-Matt on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 07:44.

because they are pure, 110%, unadulterated Maddow-Olbermann/MSNBC DemocratLeft talking points better suited for the DailyKos or MoveOn.Org or an ACORN Board meeting --well, as long as there aren't any conscientious ACORN Board members in attendance at the board meeting, that is.  Maybe that's where you should post, eh?

I'm not surprised you hit on the standard Jon Stewart-ScreaminHowieDean-BarneyCorruptFrank lines: she's a quitter, she uses here kids as tools, she's a cut and runner, she's the same ol' political animal who is purely self-interested, did we say yet she's a quitter?, she's quirky in an unpredictable way, she's running from the ass-whooping the farLeft gave her, she's a quitter... endlessly repeating the same and hoping it sticks in the minds of the farLeft losers who watch last place shows and think blaming it on W is a solution.

In the meantime, the nation's Charcoaled Kennedy cum Camelot Obamas have been proven to have lied to the American people yet again.  They promised if we passed nearly a $1trillion in Stimuli, the economy would rebound, the car industry would restart, workers would be employed again, unemployment would drop, gas prices would reset and the battle against terrorism would be a sweeping huge success & bin Laden would be captured and breast cancer would be cured & ChristopherSupermanReeves would walk again --well, maybe not the last ridiculous promise.

Unemployment up?  Yep.  Spending up?  Oh yeah, to the point of generational theft.  Economy losing jobs? Oh yeah --even union jobs and hard core Democrat constituents are finally feeling the effects of the Obaam-U Economy.

And what does our Charcoaled Kennedy cum Camelot prince do?  Head overseas and pray  that the media will milk Michael Jackson's death a few more weeks rather than focus on rising unemployment, unspent Stimuli, bankrupt Democrat state govts and rising gas prices while the auto industry remains in the tank.  Like the Obaam-U Economy lie about the Stimuli being ONLY used on shovel-ready projects... we now have the Obaam-u Economy lie about capping unemployment.  What are they to do?  They've lied and the excuse is: We didn't have the right intelligence... or "everyone" believed the wrong intelligence, too... those explanations didn't work for W... but they now work for the Obaam-U WH?  Sure but it ain't gonna get the job done.  They need a better distraction or it's time to start saying "Obaam-U lied.  Impeach Obaam-U".

Hey, after using the Charcoaled Kennedy cum Camelot kids as distracting props on the swingsets and the 6 week doggie diversions, what's next for the cracker jack WH communications office?  Maybe another batch of Michelle sleeves or sleeve-less "controversy"?  Hem lines?  Hat styles?  Dinner plate selection?

Obaam-u lied.  Impeach Obama.

Mich Matt what you said doesn't make Repack wrong

Submitted by Ann_W on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 09:01.

 I agree w/ most of what you said, but that doesn't make Sarah Palin a good candidate.  We need someone who understands issues.  She seemed to me to take positions instintually, to not really understand things.  When you saw her in the debate w/ Biden, she did well regurgitating talking points, but there was no there there.  I'm glad she seems to be fizzling out.  The presidency is a very complex job.

 

 

 

 

Well

Submitted by Warner Todd Huston on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 05:51.

Well, if anyone wants Palin to go away, going third party will certainly do it. Teddy Roosevelt couldn't even make a third party work, fer cripe's sakes!

Indeed

Submitted by NoMoreBlatherDotCom on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 12:45.

Palin has done some dumb things of the Bachmann variety, such as repeating the same false, Dem-helping statements over and over. However, if she does anything with the Tea Parties, she would demonstrate a sub-sub-sub-Homer Simpson level of stupidity. See the link for all my reasons why the TP movement should be ignored; I have several detailed reasons.

And, of course, Henke as usual has no clue. The real differntiating factor that a new party could bring wouldn't necessarily be based on a differing ideology, but based on being clean. Both parties are absolutely, completely corrupt, and a new party that had very strict rules on money and other corrupting factors could clean up both on offense and defense. For instance, most Americans oppose illegal immigration, and the new party would pledge not to support that in any way. At the same time, they could completely eviscerate both the Dems and the GOP for their support for illegal activity.

Oh Henke, Henke, Henke....

Submitted by Darvin Dowdy on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 08:41.

...thanks for having big brass ones - enough to even bring this subject up. If "I" were advising Palin, I'd tell her to stick w/the GOP - for now. But as Henke says "The next leaders of the Republican Party will be the people who kill some sacred cows,".  In order for her to do that she must have a "loaded revolver" to slam down on the negotiating table when dealing w/the very arrogant GOP Hierarchy.  And that loaded revolver would be the not-so-veiled threat of a 3rd party formation.  And the willingness to follow through with that parties formation if she gets too much resistance. (I've always felt that Todd's affiliation w/AIP could be turned into a plus)  Drastic changes need to be made within the GOP.  This must happen in order for them to re-connect w/the Base and regain trust.  Otherwise they'll continue to lose. DD

Everybody repeat after me:

Submitted by Apperception on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 08:47.

Sarah. Palin. Is. A. Joke.

 

But Palin IS the GOP

Submitted by tdawg11870 on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 08:54.

Palin can't leave the party because she what she represents - what her supporters love her for - is her down-the-line, checklist conservatism.  For all the pundits and radio types, she is the Great White (North) Hope because she deviates from the party line in no discernable way.  Those who are on an unending RINO hunt and are willing to boo anyone who gets the least bit out of line are generally Palin's strongest supporters.  If Palin is at its helm, I can't see how a Tea Party platform would differ from the GOP platform as it looks now, implementation aside.

If there is to be a third party, it has to come from some other corner - libertarians fed up with social cons or social cons who think the fiscal cons get all the attention. 

Jon, I think it would be enlightening if you would

Submitted by Vern Rutter on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 09:40.

specify what you mean by "sacred cows".

If you mean "moderate" Rs, how does that equate to ever creating a coalition sufficient to win -- anything?

3rd Party speculation

Submitted by cr on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 09:51.

Any third party move on her part would effectively take here out of office. Actually, she's unlikely to get voted in for any significant public office again; although, I very much can see her in a supportive role.

As for the Republican party, I would love for her to go 3rd party. It would kill the 'GOP' and make a something akin to a traditional conservative party and a nouveau conservative party. You see it kind of happening now. There's the country (Rush/Nat Review) conservatives and the urban (Morning Joe) conservatives.

It's only wild speculation, but if such a thing would happen (chances would be very low), there might be a shift of independants moving to one or the other (probably the later). 

I've always wanted a viable third party one way or other. Two party politics is becoming a drag. I welcome a split if it should happen.

As for Palin, she's just a divisive figure to spur on the debates that exist outside her. What she does persoanlly isn't such a big deal, but her affect on the whole is what counts.

Morning Joe

Submitted by tdawg11870 on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 10:14.

Oh please oh please let there not be a political party based on Morning Freaking Joe.  It would be more annoying than a party based on The Real Housewives of Wherever.  It's not even about politics - they're all uninformed, uninquisitive in a jokey way that is not the least bit funny.

Well . . .

Submitted by cr on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 10:30.

bad analogy maybe. I'm not a big fan of the show . . . and it's very airy like morning shows are, but they do represent something different than say Glen Back et. al.

I don't if there's an urban-moderate-conservative show out there other than that. Have any suggestions?

The next leaders of the Republican Party will be ...

Submitted by tomllewis on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 10:24.

Jon, I agree with your point: "The next leaders of the Republican Party will be the people who kill some sacred cows."

What I like about Sarah Palin is that she seems to have the potential to be very bold and not be a "go along - get along" type. I am quite content having a very open mind on what she will or won't do.

If you heard Newt's speech a few weeks ago at the joint fund raiser for the NRCC & NRSC he stressed that we need leadership that will have the courage to take on the MSM. the Liberals, and the Republicans whose spending set up the 2006 & 2008 defeats.

I don't know if Sarah Palin can approach that kind of leadership, that I think she may have the potential. We'll see.

almost but . . .

Submitted by cr on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 10:40.

There's two big things I think the next change-agent republican leader needs to accomplish:

       1.  Work with the leadership to change the leadership

       2.  Work with the media to control the media

There's this fallacy within conservatism that dooms it in a number of ways:  the persecution / david vs. golliath paradigm.  To get elected, you need a party (particularly in today's insane-money politics). Or have some very, very, very rich friends. And the MSM is not the enemy, it's a tool. Main stream media goes to main stream people. Unless you base your strategy on the idea that the tail wags the dog (it happens, just not consistantly), you're not going to have a winning record.

almost but

Submitted by tomllewis on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 18:11.

you raise some interesting points cr.

1. BHO is a pretty good example of someone who didn't really begin to to "work with the leadership..." until he had shown he was winning over the public. Then, he did exactly that.

2. I can't quite think of any Republican for whom the MSM wasn't the enemy. Or, maybe it's more like the MSM thought of the majority of Republicans were the enemy. I don't quite see that the "Main stream media goes to main stream people." Perhaps I'm too jaded.

Maybe a new definition

Submitted by cr on Tue, 07/07/2009 - 19:24.

Urban media. I hate the rural/ubran split, but it's there. The MSM is the big city papers. For every NYT there's a post, but readership is far less. If America keeps getting more urban, then it's a segment that republicans are losing out on.

Media liked Reagan, and McCain did well initially (remember the original straight talk express?). However, if you approach reporters (even if you don't like them) with contemp, you're simply not going to get good press. . . it's a non-starter. Another example is Huckabee. Conservative and very likeable. Let's put it this way, even non-news stuff like Letterman. He's paid to be an asshole, but a funny one. If Palin could have hung with his shit and maybe have tried to give it back (with a grin), she'd get respect. But Reps have given up playing the game . . .the media game.

3rd party= suidical behavior for conservatives

Submitted by reverielarke on Sun, 07/12/2009 - 08:48.

This message is for conservatives fantasizing about a 3rd party option:

Doesn't anybody learn basic math anymore? Or let's say math isn't a person's strong suit... what about history? Or logic?

A third party sortakinda like the GOP except not filled with those who have succumbed to bribes or the Stockholm Syndrome will never garner enough votes to win a major election. It will only draw enough to insure conservatives lose.

Again and again we've seen how this plays out.

Divide and conquer. The Democrat camp is on the run now, but they're hoping we implode like this.

This isn't the Yankees and the Red Sox, or some interesting movie-of-the-week with a delightful twist ending: this is the future of our country. There are great numbers of Americans who will never abandon the GOP no matter how much it has gone astray. The energy needs to go into driving out the bums and taking back the party... not believing a 3rd party option is anything but suicide.

Brenda Giguere

 

 

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