The Best Case Scenario for the Right, Part 3: Jon Henke

This is the first of a two-day discussion between TheNextRight.com (Soren Dayton and Jon Henke) and Culture11.com (James Poulos and Conor Friedersdorf) about the Best Case and Worst Case scenario for the Right in 2008.  Conor Friedersdorf's contribution is here.  James Poulos contribution is here.  Jon Henke continues.

I had assumed that, in this exchange, I would be the cranky misanthrope who took the "better off fighting with Democrats than disappointed in Republicans (again)" approach; however, it seems Conor, James and I share some similar sentiments: the likelihood that we face an Obama presidency, the primary importance of rejuvenation.

The electoral outcome is, in some ways, almost irrelevant to the prospects for the Right. Sure, there are some very important things at stake in the next four years, but the best case scenario for the Right is not about tactical victory in the immediate fights, but about the long-term construction of a Movement.

You might object, “The Right already has a movement! Why do we need to build another one?” We need a major movement construction project because – as I wrote a few months ago – the Right’s movement is broken.

The Right made the “limited government” arguments, but never had the politically viable game plan for doing something about it; once elected, they were captive to the systemic incentives to distribute rewards to the rent-seeking interest groups.

It is not the ideology that has failed. Indeed, while the politicians themselves have failed, that is not even the root of the problem. What has really failed is the movement itself. A political movement’s support system is its destiny. The Right has a support system that ultimately supports the Republican Party, not the ideology. Rather than creating an infrastructure that develops and implements politically viable ideas for effectively limiting government, the Right has built an infrastructure for a political party that can appeal to the public’s range of “conservative” interests, but cannot implement them. The Right’s infrastructure is sustaining only half of the equation – the maintenance of power, without the implementation of the vision.

A half-vast right wing conspiracy is not enough.

The best case scenario for the Right is a fundamental reorientation of the movement toward (a) politically viable policy innovation that addresses the underlying political incentive problems, and (b) movement infrastructure that supports the ideology and agenda, rather than merely enabling the Party. In short, the Right will only win if the Right emerges with a better vision and a better support system to pursue that vision.

It’s not clear how the outcome of the 2008 election impacts this.  In fact, either an Obama or McCain victory could prove beneficial or detrimental and I don't think we can guess how the variables involved will play out.

• If Obama wins, the Right has nothing left to fall back upon; Republicans will be forced to change. What’s more, Democratic consolidation of power – an Obama Presidency and Democratic control of the House and Senate – will give Republicans the unifying grievances they need to begin turning the political pendulum back to the Right. Of course, those “unifying grievances” are “Democratic victories”, so this isn’t exactly a painless scenario.
• If McCain wins, Republicans get an opportunity to mitigate the short-term damage while reorienting the movement. But will the Republican Party make the fundamental changes it needs to make while still hanging onto power – however intangible, unsuccessful and unproductive that power is? That’s a less painful short term outcome, but the longer-term change is less certain.

Fighting against Democratic schemes to grow government and engineer society is what Republicans do best. Republicans are good as a minority party. Unfortunately, the Right has never figured out how to translate that limited government tendency into a governing agenda.

So, whatever the result of the 2008 election, the best result for the Right is to return to fighting Democrats and stop apologizing for Republicans.