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The Future of the Right
It seems to me there are three main factions within the Republican Party, and while we can see strengths and weaknesses in each of them, the future of the Right is far from clear.
- Progressive Republicans (aka: Teddy Roosevelt Republicans) - These are the Republicans who may be solid allies on many issues, but who also seem to want a Great Leader who can do Big Things. They are Crusader Conservatives - generally reliable on limited government, but willing to go off on Big Government crusades.
Illustrative Quote: "The object of government is the welfare of the people," (Teddy Roosevelt)
- Goldwater Republicans - These Republicans vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense; they may have various opinions on social issues, but they subsume those views to the goal at hand: limiting government
Illustrative Quote: "I have little interest in streamlining government or in making it more efficient, for I mean to reduce its size. I do not undertake to promote welfare, for I propose to extend freedom." (Goldwater
- Bush Republicans - these voters may or may not care about limited government, but they're willing to accept Big Government, so long as the government does socially conservative things. (See: Mike Huckabee, Christian Democracy)
Illustrative Quote: "Prayers can help, and so can the government." - President Bush, February 6, 2008
Of those mentioned, many have fallen into a fourth camp - Status Quo Republicans. They are mostly focused on winning that next election and consolidating their own power.
So, where does the Right stand?
At this point, the Progressive Republicans are in the drivers seat - partly because John McCain (a Progressive Republican) has the Republican nomination, and partly because a charismatic figure with some Big Ideas beats factions with no attention-grabbing ideas. At this point, no other faction has the policy ideas and grassroots support to challenge for leadership. But that position can only be maintained by a charismatic leader for a short time. It is not sustainable, At some point, the other coalitions will see to fill the core policy vacuums McCain may leave open.
The Bush Republicans are doing badly right now - you've all seen the polling - but the social conservative/evangelical base is still strong (as evidenced by the out-of-nowhere Huckabee campaign) They're not gone yet, and they could make a quick comeback with a charismatic candidate. Like, you know, Mike Huckabee. If they do that, it will mark the GOP's turn towards the European Christian Democracy style of political parties.
Finally, there are the Goldwater Republicans. They have been relegated to lesser roles, or turned into Status Quo Republicans. While a few still make appropriate noises on the Hill, a lack of publicly appealing, political viable ideas for limiting government has rendered them mostly impotent. The Goldwater Republicans have the greatest opportunity, however, because it is they who will have the most compelling arguments against Democratic and/or McCain poliices, and it is they who will need to begin driving a narrative about the impact of Big Government poicy. If they do it well, they will have a chance to reassert the Goldwater brand. If they don't, they will probably become marginalized.
It's impossible to tell which of these factions will dominate. Your predictions are welcomed.


Comments
Bush is not socially conservative.
Bush has been very pro-homophile, so he cannot be considered socially conservative.
I still think it would be better to divide the right according to
1. socially conservative.
2. economically conservative.
3. defense conservative.
i would say, that the defense conservatives are on top right now, with the economic conservatives second and the social conservatives a distant third.
Though of course most people are a combination of these, with varying degrees.
But that's just my opinion.
Correct me if I'm mistaken
Correct me if I'm mistaken but the defense-minded individuals you refer to are not technically defense conservatives. They're liberal on defense. Conservative defense focuses on diplomacy and refrains from nation-building or regime-support, while still sustaining the world's premier military capable of defending America from any attack..
Respect
While not all I've noticed some Goldwater Republicans show distain towards Bush/Huckabee Republicans, especially evangelicals. That attitude was reciprocated and best illustrated with Huckabee's "Club for Greed" quip.
Such a lack of respect by all guilty parties won't maintain a winning coalition.
Now living in Washington, D.C. I've noticed a higher concentration of libertarian Republicans. Being in D.C. they're more apt to being in leadership and message-creating roles. Social conservatives feel alienated. We need to get these groups talk to each other more to find common ground.
This is true. If the majority
This is true. If the majority of the party becomes as scornful and elitist in their attitudes/remarks toward social conservatives as the Democrats already are, the GOP will begin to find about as little success with that voting bloc as the Dems do.
Please note
Huckabee was scornful, if not elitist, when it came to fiscal conservatives. It's not "greed" to object to socialistic spending policy, it's realism. Disrespecting libertarians on all policy votes, while stealing libertarian rhetoric at election time, is a recipe for "loser." I hope the Republicans don't try it again, so I don't have to teach them a lesson with a third party vote (not "wasted," the message is a clear "up yours!") again. As parents often say when they're administering a well-deserved spanking, "it hurts me more than it hurts you."
JMR
There's no doubt
there's a strong undercurrent of self-righteousness (that borders on a type of snobbery) among some evangelical voters and politicians. That doesn't change the fact that they're significant voting bloc that we can't afford to dismiss.
I'd say you're right.
I suppose you could count me among the "Progressive Republicans". Though, as you clearly allow, there's a great degree of overlap among the various categories.
What I want in a president is someone who can do Great Things, but isn't necessarily inclined to do them. I think McCain has the blessing of the former and the curse of the latter. But, I'm willing to risk his propensity for doing more than he should (global warming, league of democracies) in exchange for his ability and determination to do what he must (fight the war on terror).
It's possible to roll back regulations. It's impossible to un-lose a war.
Less government is important
Christian Democracy is the worst, with 'unlimited' government and less personal freedom.
These three groups should be working together though. So don't let McCain down.
Where do you put the pre-Goldwater Republicans?
Your know, the Eisenhower style Republicans--disinterested in social issues but hostile to budget deficits and corruption?
They may never be moving forces of the "Right", but if we defines them as part of the "Left" we are going to leave a huge hill to climb in the Blue States
Bush republicans as just socially conservative? I don't think so
While President Bush is socially conservative, this has hardly been the defining feature of his term or of his supporters. Many of us support Bush because he has been willing to be a Big Idea President (the spread of freedom throughout the world as the means to defeating terrorism).
Too simplistic
I don't fit neatly into any of your categories but I will say that anyone who doesn't care about limiting government should not define themself as Republican. If there is animosity toward Huckabee followers perhaps that is part of the reason.
The rest of the reason may well be that social issues do not fall under the duties assigned to the federal government by the Constitution. Taking it a step further, with the exception of his positions on social issues, Huckabee may as well be a Democrat. He would certainly push social programs at the federal level and finance them with taxpayer dollars.
I want Republicans on the federal level to reduce the size of government and spending. I want them to defend the country, including its borders, fulfill their constitutional responsibilities and leave much of everything else alone.
On the state and local levels legislative responsibilities do expand to include whatever concerns the people, including things such as public education.
I don't consider myself a crusader or Rockefeller Republican although I'm not adverse to creating conditions where a little democracy can begin to flourish in a dark cave.
As far as a prediction as to which group will lead the party next I believe it will depend on which group can put forward a strong leader. We are so splintered that it will take someone with a very strong personality and some elements of each of the groups to pull us back together. With the right person, or coalition, that could happen very quickly but McCain cannot do it.
Huckabee is a Good Government, not Big Government conservative
I find it very revealing that people assume that Huckabee would pursue social big government policy at the federal level, when in his own administration, he did more streamlining of what was already there, than introduction of completely new.
I think people assume that because he was a pastor he would go crazy on healthcare, education, poverty etc in a handout rather than hand up way. But look at his state.. He introcuded a system for private companies to give people incentives on their own dime to stay healthy..he didn't try to mandate free healthcare for all.
He consolodated a scattered ineffective educational burocracy and moved it out of the failing to the productive.
Everyone is complaining about Bad government in Washington.. here was a candidate with a proven track record of GOOD government..that worked.. was more limited when he left it than when he found it.. and that had a surplus to boot.
I never understood the hostility toward his approach. I have yet to find another governor who was able to balance the social and fiscal responisibilities of governing so well.
I think the definition of a Huckabee republican as a Bush republican is incorrect. As a Huckabee supporter, I found Bush's rampant spending for ineffective product, social or otherwise, very disturbing. One of the very things that draws me and 20,000 other grassroots supporters to Huckabee's cause is his proven ability to be as fiscally limited as he possibly can, while still achieving the desired result. We are not as virulently opposed to very limited taxation if we can see the ultimate benifit for the entire community down the road...but expansion on a massive scale is out of the question, and Huckabee has never expanded government exponentially. Raises here were offset by cuts there..the overall effect was one primarily of balance, or minimal increase for maximum benift.
There is no 'may or may not be interested in limited government' in the Huckabee republican camp..Nor would his administration if he ever had one be a 'Christian Democracy' that's just an FYI for those who may not know the inner workings of our thought processes.
Editors, I really wish you guys had a representative of the social conservative, Huckabee republican world view working closely with you. I don't think you really understand where we are coming from, and definitions like the one you made of Huckabee are more likely to piss us off than get us on board here. I would love to hope we have a place in shaping the discussion of what will go on here at the Next Right.
A Missing Category - Reagan Republicans
I'm kind of surprised you couldn't find a category for Reagan Republicans. I've described them as follows:
That's where you'll find me, and that's why it will be nearly impossible for me to support John McCain in November.
I was just about to say, "Amen,"
but then I saw the bit about not not supporting McCain. I don't support the man, but looking at the ballot, I don't see an option. Even a strong protest vote for a third party candidate will be an asterisk in the history books, and will simply tilt the election result to the left, solidifying the grip the godless presently have on D.C. Then, how will we ever dream of securing the borders and fighting terrorism? Through Obama?
Bush Republicans
I don't think that Bush, or Bush Republicans, are actually very socially conservative. They may be Christian, which is a very different matter. Jimmy Carter is a Christian.
Goldwater Republicans - These Republicans vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense
I'm hard pressed to think of who these people are. The nearest I can come up with are people like Tancredo and Sessions - social conservatives who vote for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense.
Reagan Republicans
Reagan Republicans - like the Goldwater Republicans, are for limited government, individual liberty and strong defense AND conservative policies on social issues coupled with lower taxes.
Yup. It strikes me that people like this are the core of the party, and are what all the Goldwaterites and Bush Republicans and so on need to be converted to.
Thoughts
1. Status Quo Republicans: Tom DeLay, Roy Blunt, Hastert, Adam Putnam, Romney are garbage. These are the K-Street crowd that had us expand government and wasteful spending while protecting the Mark Foley's and other losers of the world.
1a. Huckabee will never succeed in this party or for us nationally, nice guy, but when you stink on 2 of the 3 issues: fiscal and defense policy, you are going nowhere. The country is not like Arkansas.
2. The hardline defense thing is something every Republican agrees on, without question.
3. A strong governing party uses it's core beliefs to answer the challenges of the day. You have to look at the issues facing our country, and say this is how we solve the problems. Right now there are a lot of major issues facing our country, and as someone said yesterday this loooks to be a civic generation, meaning it's like a T-Roosevelt/McCain model is our best chance to not get McGovernized-i.e. shut out of power for a generation.
4. For the editors I think you need to add a poster rating system.
Status Quo Republicans are way out in Right Field
I amused myself with a visual representation of this post which reinforces my personal belief that compared to having at least a modicum of shared goals with most other Republican sub-groups, Status Quo Republicans are way out in Right Field.
So...does this group represent the kinds of Republican legislators who vote for ethanol and Farm Bill subsidies? Just curious.
It's the demographics
Whichever of those ideological groups you adhere to, the essential tidal problem is demographic.
Republican victories have been based on the votes of married white Christians. (Forget age, income, and gender.)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_incredible_shrinki...
That demographic is declining precipitiously; it's now below 50% of voters.
Can Republican policy positions and values succeed (strongly, in aggregate) outside that group? Which positions and values?
Putting together the positions and values that can gain widespread support from those outside that group, can it still be called a Republican platform?
In the long term, another telling statistic: less than 50% of Americans under age five are white.
An odd question.
Can Republican policy positions and values succeed (strongly, in aggregate) outside that group? Which positions and values?
Positions and values have little to do with it. People vote as they do based on tribalism, not on sober and rational analysis of policy positions.
And it's always possible that the GOP might stop supporting policies which destroy their own base, open borders immigration among them.
well around 1908 a lot of Republicans
Would have been convinced based on the likely demographics of NY State that the Republican party would disappear, since obviously people named Giuliani, Pataki, D'Amato, Bloomberg, Bruno and Lazio would never vote for any Republican and by late century Italian Americans and Jewish Americans would be the two largest groups in the state., swamping the native born protestant population.
Multiculturalism is the problem, not national origin. .
Not the best analogy
The GOP in NY has disappeared, and Italian Americans, and Jewish Americans in particular, still vote Democratic.
Well, those are an awful lot of disappearing politicians
Ethnic voters in NY State voted heavily Republican until the middle part of this decade......social issues and dislike of one tongue tied Texan were major factors.
The most heavily Italian district in the nation is also the most heavily Republican seat in downstate NY. Meanwhile, the DNC chairman is Howard Dean, Mr. WASP himself....hello?!?.
I'm sick of two things concerning this issue. Idiots like Lindsay Graham claiming anyone opposed to amnesty is a bigot akin to the anti-Catholic rubes of the early 20th Century.....and lazy conservative republicans who can't be bothered to ask for the vote from people who don't go to their church or have ancestors from the right continent.......it's easier to throw up your hands and blame "those people" for not supporting our candidates
Well, that depends.
I'd hardly call Giuliani a Republican, even of the RINO sort. And since D'Amato lost the state GOP has been in freefall.
Ethnic voters in NY State voted heavily Republican until the middle part of this decade......social issues and dislike of one tongue tied Texan were major factors
Or to put it another way, they are cultural liberals. (And, more often than not, liberals in every other sense as well.)
lazy conservative republicans who can't be bothered to ask for the vote from people who don't go to their church or have ancestors from the right continent.......it's easier to throw up your hands and blame "those people" for not supporting our candidates
It's not that simple. As we should have known, and as this election cycle is reminding us, people are very, very tribal. They will vote for us when their tribe does, and not before. Simply asking them for their vote is futile. But that's a lesson the liberal Republicans refuse to learn.
It doesn't matter the label, it's action that counts
Look, haven't we fiscal conservatives learned yet the Republican Party and the Status Quo Republicans, which includes John McCain, aren't about to limit government, aren't about to lower spending, aren't about to protect our borders, aren't about to shift power back to the state and to the people from the federal government?.
Haven't we fiscal conservatives learned that unless we curtail spending, our conservatives values cannot be accomplished regardless of who we elect as president?
We need to stop printing money beyond our gold reserves without the peoples' consent.
Stop taxing wages. Implement a Fair Flat tax on corporate profits, no more than 10%.
As long as we elect political leaders who don't act to cut off the flow of money into government coffers in he first place, nothing will change, nothing can change. We are just fooling ourselves and our liberal, democratic friends
ex animo
davidfarrar
Major factor
Hello-
I think I would fall under the Goldwater Republican banner. Mostly, anyway.
I tend to lean Republican on the business side of things as I have a small business. I like the talk of gov't out of peoples' lives. However, as long as the social cons and theo cons demand their particular religious views are to be forced on everyone else by the weight of the Federal gov't then I can not suppport the GOP. From what I can gather this one area is a major impediment for a large amount of moderate voters.
I feel the GOP could build a majority. It would mean living up to the idea of limited gov't. That, to me, extends to allowing people to decide for themselves in all personal matters, from religion to gun control to family planning, or if two consenting adults should be able to get married and have that marriage recognised, and the myriad of others that I will not even attempt to list here. I guess I could shorten it to whatever goes on between consenting adults is no one else's business.
Phalanx