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CT a Battleground State?

Submitted by kmorrison on Fri, 06/06/2008 - 10:07
in

From Rasmussen Reports

"The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Connecticut finds Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. Given that choice, 4% would opt for “some other candidate” while 5% are not sure.

In early March, Obama led McCain by twelve percentage points. However, that poll was conducted before Obama’s controversial former pastor, Jeremiah Wright, became part of the campaign dialogue. Currently, Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Connecticut voters. That rating is down ten percentage points since March. "

Who knew?  Strong support from Senator Lieberman and Congressman Shays  may also be helping Senator McCain close the gap in Connecticut.  It certainly would be a coup if CT went from Blue to Red.

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As much as I would like to believe CT is up for grabs

Submitted by Kevin Boyd on Fri, 06/06/2008 - 17:26.

Rasmussen polls are garbage. They've been way off the entire election cycle.

However, we do need to rebuild the Republican party in New England, where Republicans used to always do well. This is probably one of the few benefits to having McCain at the top of the ticket.

Rick Davis mentioned our state as a possibility this afternoon

Submitted by Ironman on Fri, 06/06/2008 - 18:32.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YzhhZTk5NGEzMTExN2U4N2FiOTc1NjAwMDMzMjg3MTU

But it will certaintly be a steep climb. In 2004 Bush lost the state 54-44% to Kerry, losing heavily populated and affluent Fairfield County 51-47%.  Being a vocal social conservative with a southern accent does not work here at all. Bush's 04 vote was an improvement over his woeful 2000 performance.

The 2006 three way senate race had Lieberman winning over Lamont by a 10 point margin, 50%-40%, with a Republican winning 10%. Lieberman won strong margins in Fairfield County and New Haven County (in spite of losing the city of New Haven badly).

Presuming McCain holds the Bush base in a state where he did not run well, he will need about 40% of the Kerry04/Lieberman 06 voters,presuming that Lamont's 40% represents the hard line irreducible Democratic base in CT.. Possible reasons for hope.

a) the financial economy is going south and heterofore wealthy folks in Fairfield County will revisit pocketbook issues, and not vote on their attitudes towards devout Texans.. The full impact of Obamanomics has not been processed by these voters, who voted by heavy margins for  Bush 41 when an avowed tax hiker was the alternative. McCain is stylistically far more amenable to these voters than Bush 43 ever was.

b) There are plenty of smaller working class towns and suburbs in eastern and western CT that are somewhat of the "bitter" variety, and where Lamont style politics does not play at all. Kerry did not bother these voters. Obama very well might.

c) Feminism. CT has elected an awful lot of women to office and there are miffed Hillary folks out there.  

Sure, it's possible CT could be a battleground. I have to believe that if it is we will have MI and OH well in hand and that means lights out for Mr. Obama;

 

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/