If I Were Running...

Down in my hometown, Orlando, voters in November 2008 ousted Republican Ric Keller from Congress and replaced him with the newly-famous ("die quickly", "holocaust", "etc.) Alan Grayson.   To say that Grayson is not in the same place ideologically as his district is an understatement - Central Florida had been a Republican-leaning area and remains about as much of a swing district as you can fathom.  

But Grayson isn't the only example of a too-far-left Democrat that got swept to Congress with the Obama tidal wave in 2008.  The Cook Political Report currently lists 28 Democratic members as "toss-up" or "lean" seats, compared to only 13 Republican seats.  2010 ought to be ripe for the picking.  Between the forces of history (opposition party picking up seats in first midterm under a new administration), the forces of the economy (unemployment expected to peak out in June at 10.5% says one economist), and polling numbers that are looking awfully grim for Democrats, there's reason to believe that this is the year for Republican challengers to have a real shot at winning with unconventional, ideas-based, truly modern campaigns.  

Yet today's piece by Gov. Bobby Jindal in the Washington Post included a line that may be the single most important lesson that Republicans should take away this year:

Republicans must shift gears.  Conservatives should seize the mantle of reform and lead. Conservatives either genuinely believe that conservative principles will work to solve real-world problems such as health care or they don't. I believe they will.

The temptation will powerful to make these races a referendum on the Democratic incumbent, to demonstrate that they're a part of a Democratic Party that is the prime purveyor of bad ideas. Don't be fooled - voters may be souring on the Democrats, but they aren't exactly enthusiastic about Republicans yet, either.   

Given the present environment, if I were planning on taking on a Democratic incumbent, here's how I'd go about it.  Potential challengers and those mulling a bid for any office that involves the national political environment - this one's for you.

1) Fill the ideas vacuum.  

This needs to be the first thing you figure out - how you will contribute to the policy direction of the GOP.  The Republican Party has, technically, had alternative policies on the stimulus, energy, etc.  But if a tree falls in a forest and doesn't make a sound...you get the picture.  There are folks on the outside, from Newt Gingrich to Ross Douthat & Reihan Salam (authors of Grand New Party) who have done a lot of thought about how to solve problems.  Its time for us to have candidates across the country who care about solutions as well.  If I could sum up the sentiment of a good number of American voters in one sentence, it would be this: "Someone please fix this economy and fix it now."  "Someone" can be anyone.  It's not "Democrats, fix this economy" or "Republicans, take back power and fix this economy", it is literally anyone who presents an intelligent plan for how to begin creating jobs again.  America is far less ideologically polarized than pundits give it credit for.  (See the excellent analysis in "Culture War?: The Myth of a Polarized America" by Morris Fiorina.  I always cite it here, and for good reason.)

Right now, a candidate for Congress with an R attached to their name on the ballot has an incredibly unique opportunity.  Running as a Democrat means running, fairly or unfairly, on the record of the Pelosi Congress.  Running as a Republican?  You have a clean slate to define "Republican ideas" as you see them - not as party leadership sees them, not as Rush Limbaugh or David Brooks or Peggy Noonan sees them (to offer an unusual mix), but rather as you wish the Republican Party would see them.  It's a choose-your-own-adventure out there now.  Do Republicans need a unifying national message?  Yes.  (Jobs, jobs, jobs will do.) But the ability of a candidate to put forth ideas and really make a splash with workable solutions is at a high this cycle.  

2) Build a coalition - "the base" is not enough.

One of the major reasons Republicans did so poorly in '06 and '08 was a massive collapse in support from independent voters.  Since I began working in polling in '05, independent voters looked an awful lot like Democratic voters on a number of key questions.  Only very recently has this phenomenon flipped, with independent voters looking a lot more like Republicans. This is an opportunity to be savored, not squandered - and trust me, if Republicans learn the wrong lesson from the 2008 election and decide we didn't focus on "the base" enough, we will waste this chance to bring conservative and moderate independents into the fold.  

Right now, there is a lot of energy even among bright, young consultant types, focused on winning voters through outreach to the Tea Party movement, going online and activating conservative bloggers, turning out previously alienated conservatives.    The draw of this strategy is particularly strong in an "off-year" election, when the thought is that only the hardcore voters turn out.  Wrong.  With the economy in bad shape, people will turn out - people who don't yet know who they're voting for in 13 months.  Win these people.

How to do it?  If you're a candidate, schedule wisely.  For every Tea Party gathering or event that involves "preaching to the choir", fit in two that get you new voters.  Think outside the box and don't pander.  If you genuinely care about issues that have particular impact on the Hispanic community in your district, show it.  Participate in service events with local Hispanic organizations and really listen to what you can do in Congress that would make things better.   If you care about winning young voters, don't just do a tailgate party with rich donors at a local university football game - hold an open house on campus where you invite all students, not just the College Republicans, to attend and ask questions.   It sounds simple but is so rarely done.

We talk about "outreach" and "coalition building" and think it counts for our candidate to take a quick meeting with the leader of a local group we want to court.  Nope.  Make real, meaningful time investments in figuring out what voters want...and not just voters that are already going to vote for you.

3) Generate earned media like crazy.

Media buys are expensive.  If you want to be serious you will probably need ads on TV and radio.  You will probably need a few road signs.  (Though, I think any Virginia resident can tell you how well these things worked out for Terry McAuliffe.) But many campaigns invest their efforts in an off-balanced way and become TV-and-Road-Sign efforts without substance.  If you are a very traditional candidate running with very few unique ideas with a not-very-compelling message, well, yes, you will have a greater need for purchased media.  Journalists and bloggers tend not to get terribly excited about the usual, so really focus - what makes this candidate unusually good for voters?

A good message will create good earned media.  Say something interesting and people will be interested.  

There's a risk in including this point, in that it is not intended to support the "be outrageous and bloggers will love you!" strategy that is being employed right now by, for example, Alan Grayson's awful comments.  He may have made $150,000 in contributions following his outbursts, but the damage he has done to his standing with independent voters in Orlando can't be erased with a big campaign war chest.   This is not an endorsement of the Paris Hilton School of Politics: be outrageous and court attention at all costs.

But if the Republican presidential primary didn't wake everyone up to the idea that money and media buys don't win elections anymore (how many delegates did Giuliani win?), nor did the Democratic primary for Governor in Virginia, I bet we see quite a few House races this year make that point clear.  Write a lot of op-eds talking about your ideas (and not just why your opponent is no good).   Always be available to speak with local reporters.  Get over this idea that the press is the enemy.   Do things worth talking about.   

It is easy to armchair quarterback a campaign, to blog about it here with a view from the cheap seats.  But for those of you out there who have a chance to really make important strategic decisions on a 2010 race, remember - this year all bets are off.  We are running in an environment that is both favorable in general and is particularly favorable to fresh, exciting faces and people with real, workable ideas.  Because if there's any year to defy the conventional wisdom and run "the campaign of the future", its this year.