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Young Voters, the GOP, and Gay Marriage
Submitted by Kristen Soltis on Mon, 04/13/2009 - 14:59
In today's Daily Beast the daughter of Sen. John McCain, Meghan McCain, wrote about the need for "a gayer GOP" in order to expand the Republican Party's hopes of winning back a majority coalition and in particular in order to appeal to young voters.
I recently completed research on the topic of young voters and the GOP: where the Republican Party is losing young voters, how serious the threat is to the party, and how the Republican Party should respond. And on this point, Ms. McCain has it right - the issue of gay marriage is one on which young voters and the Republican Party diverge significantly.
Yet this is not to say that a Republican Party that embraces socially conservative policy stances is unsustainable; indeed, on some issues, such as abortion, young voters have beliefs similar to those of voters overall. When pressed in the 2008 General Social Survey with the question "Please tell me whether or not you think it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion if the woman wants it for any reason", 41.6% of those 18-34 said "yes" as did 41.2% of respondents overall - hardly a distinction. The GSS also asks about six particular instances in which a woman may seek an abortion; on all six instances, roughly equivalent numbers of those 18-34 supported a woman's right to obtain an abortion in each instance as did respondents overall.
Yet issues relating to homosexuality find vast differences between the young and older voters. In terms of the issue of whether or not homosexual sex is wrong, 44.3% of respondents to the General Social Survey 18-34 believe it is "never wrong" compared to 33.5% of respondents overall. Furthermore, 47.3% of respondents 18-34 said homosexual sex was "always wrong" compared to 55.6% of respondents overall. A Harvard Institute of Politics study in Spring of 2008 of 18-24 year olds also corroborated the findings that young voters are more tolerant concerning homosexuality; when asked if they agreed or disagreed with the statement "homosexual relationships between consenting adults are morally wrong", 50% disagreed while 30% agreed and 20% neither agreed nor disagreed.
On the issue of homosexual marriage the distinction is even greater. Some 39.3% of respondents in the 2008 GSS said that they "agreed" or "strongly agreed" that homosexuals should have the right to marry. That number soared to 53.4% among those 18-34, with one out of four in that age group strongly agreeing. As one looks at each age group, as age increases so too does opposition to marriage for homosexuals.
To be sure, not all Democrats are supportive of gay marriage or homosexuality. Some 48% of those who identified as "strong Democrats" said that homosexual sex was "always wrong" as did 50.7% of Democrats overall. Furthermore, while support for gay marriage is more common among Democrats, 38.1% of Democrats do not believe that homosexuals should have the right to get married.
Yet regardless of how narrow or wide the chasm is between the two parties is on the issue, the differences between the beliefs of young voters and the beliefs of the older segments of the electorate - particularly the modern day Republican electorate - are significant. While these numbers don't necessarily shed light on why it is specifically that younger Americans are more accepting of homosexuality or why they are less opposed to gay marriage, one can think of a number of reasons why this may be the case. When looking at a generation that has grown up with Ellen DeGeneres and "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" as normal fixtures on the television set, it isn't hard to imagine why younger voters are more accepting of homosexual behavior.
This is not to further imply that a change in position on gay marriage would mean droves of young voters signing up for the GOP. A number of other factors have to come into play, not the least of which is how important gay marriage is relative to other important political issues in the minds of these voters. As I'll discuss in future columns, the Republican Party may have much bigger problems on its hands than the perception that it is out of touch with young voters on the issue of gay marriage.
Yet whether the Republican Party amends its actual policy stance on gay marriage or whether it simply makes efforts be more tolerant and inclusive of homosexuals generally, the Republican Party cannot ignore the vast differences in public opinion between young and old voters on the issue. This difference certainly presents a serious challenge to the party's long-term ability to swell its ranks among young voters. In the words of Dr. Morris Fiorina and his co-authors in Culture War?: The Myth of a Polarized America (p. 124),
"If the commandants on the 'orthodox' side hope to win a culture war over homosexuality, they had better do it soon - their potential ranks are being thinned by mortality."
(This item has been cross-posted at Pollster.com)
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Comments
The broader narrative is the problem...
the narrative that the GOP is out of touch -- particularly with younger voters. Gay marriage is just the tip of the iceberg.
it's religiosity, not social conservatism
Young voters todays are not as religious as their parents (for whatever reason), so they simply cannot build up the pious rage at the notion of two guys doing the nasty.
Even if the GOP concedes ground on the gay marriage issue, they are still going to turn off young voters when they try to legislate morality from their religious princples -- which has always been the driving force behind gay marriage restrictions.
The solution is to not focus on one contentious issue, but to stop allowing the evangelical wing of the party to drive the GOP platform and instead get back to the conservative fiscal roots of the party.
Unfortunately, there has been an exodus from the GOP over this rift, so the party is now dominated even more by the evangelical wing. That will make this change very difficult, and it's one reason I think that the GOP could implode as a viable party if they get routed again in 2010.
What to do?
Lose the Conservative base, or compromise your principles to attract new voters?
I think we all know the answer to that one.
it's also how homosexuals were viewed 60 years ago
The commonly accepted perception of gay people 60 years ago is that they were mentally deranged perverts. They were rounded up and beated by the police and most of them would end up committing suicide or being murdered for their derangement. (so the perception goes). The shame gay people invoked was intense.
So who was growing up during this time? Older voters. Makes perfect sense to me that more of them can't let go of past cultural reflexes. Compare that experience with young people now when being gay has a certain cool factor associated with it.
On gay marriage
and various other culture issues the demographics are lined up against the GOP. Combined with their complete lack of credibilty in domestic and foreign affairs the writing is on the wall: The GOP is dead and won't be coming back. Time to move on people. Perhaps there is a party out that is both faithful the to Constitution and not populated by wing-nuts. If so then sign me up!
your options
GOP - the walking dead. The party philosophy is currently in shambles and an increasing proportion of the base (via purity tests) wants to push the party further away from the mainstream. They need a Democratic collapse in 2010 if they want to return to viability any time soon.
Democratic - honestly a mixed bag at this point, because the tent has become so huge. You have a mix of Bush-driven political immigrants all lobbying for a voice.. environmentalists, libertarians, socialists, liberal Christians, gays, secularists, etc. The advantage of this party is that it is in power and will be for some time, so trying to steer it is appealing to some groups.
Libertarian - the authentic party of small government in this country. If they had an influx of fiscally conservative Republicans from the GOP and moderated some of their more extreme positions (eliminating the Fed, etc), then they could become a contender if Obama's economic plans struggle and the GOP nominates another evangelical like Huckabee or Palin.
Constitution - the party of social conservatives and Roy Moore. If the fiscal conservatives regain control of the GOP and stop pandering on social issues, this is where the evangelicals will run -- for one humiliating election. Then they'll come groveling back to the GOP for scraps.
Green - effectively dead. Ruined by Nader and completely co-opted into the Democratic party.
you're missing The Modern Whig Party
(it's tiny but still growing)...
the democrats do practice coalition politics... but it's important to know who's in charge... and that's the Creative Class... who basically took over in the last election or two (with folks like kos -- a logistics nerd -- fueling the charge)
Kos
There is a lot of truth to this. I discovered DK in 2003 when I was looking for political alternatives to Bush and I could immediately see the difference between Markos' approach and the other blogs. This was before they went to the new format with Scoop.
I became familiar with them before most people so when all of the "extreme leftist" rhetoric started up against them, I was already immunized and blew it off because I knew better. That said, I was really excited when Redstate started up and joined them right away since they were striving to be a right-side version of DK (i.e. rational). Unfortunately, they went all-in on the kool-aid when Josh left and I was soon banned for making an unflattering (but true) observation about Karl Rove.
But what Markos did with DailyKos is truly phenomenal. They really did reclaim the Democratic party for the base by working with a candidate who shared those same goals (Dean).
There really needs to be a viable alternative on the Right.
The republican party died a long time ago
The Gop is not the walking dead,its dead, it died decades ago.Anybody who thinks that this party is viable, needs some serious couch time.The last step of grievance is acceptance,hopefully the masses that still think that there is still a party called the Gop will wake up soon or they are at risk of bieng embalmmed with the corpse.
I believe you're looking for The Modern Whig Party
... just google for it.
visit anyrand.org
Pls visit AYNRAND.ORG,THE ONLY WAY TO GET OUT OF THIS MESS IN GOOD PHILOSOPHY.THE REPUBS HAVE BEEN DEAD FOR DECADES,ITS GOOD YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A PLACE TO GO.ACTIVISM FOR THE RIGHT THING IS BETTER THAN VOTING FOR THE WRONG THING. DONT WAIT FOR 2010,BEACUSE THE REPUBS WILL BE HANDED THEIR BEHINDS ON A SILVER PLATTER,THEY HAVE NOTHING NOT EVEN THE WEDGE ISSUES THEY USED TO RALLY THE BASE WITH LIKE IMMIGRATION,GAY MARRIAGE AND ABORTION.
I wonder why it is that
I wonder why it is that AynRanders types almost always yell, almost always appear to have a monopoly on truth and usually turn any argument into a ploy to recruit wayward political types into the crazyland of poor ol' Uncle Ron Paul? Are they really that desperate for recruits and true-believers? Come on, they gotta be like at least 2-3% of the electorate by now? Where'd all those JohnBircher types go anyway if not into the AynRanders column? Maybe it's just that their version of truth ain't selling?
As for GOPers being dead for decades... I guess Richard Nixon and Jerry Ford and Ronald Reagan and Geo Bush 41 and Geo Bush 43 and the 94 House, 96 House, 98 House, 00 House, 02 House, 04 House and 94 Senate, 96 Senate, 98 Senate, 00 Senate, 02 Senate, 04 Senate and tie in the 06 Senate doesn't count for a Party being.... let's see, "THE REPUBS HAVE BEEN DEAD FOR DECADES" Oh yeah -that's some "dead"... and the Libertarians haven't been able to capture a single state house, a single governorship or elect directly a single federal Representative or Senator? I think dead is in the eye of the recruiter.
Or did you have your head in the sand while arguing for a return to the Gold Standard, legalization of dope or elimination of the Fed Reserve? Maybe you need to drop AynRanders and start reading AnnLanders instead?
let me state the facts
put down the keyboard...
.... and back away slowly.
No, you offer only uninformed opinions... where's da' facts?
While I can appreciate you THINK there's a difference between garden variety AynRanders and Libertarians, having worked alongside and known both, I KNOW there's little difference. If there is any difference, it's that AynRanders have a slight edge over Libertarians on utter stewed enjoyment of fantasy video games... but that's not saying much, eh?
You said the GOP was dead -your words: "decades ago". I pointed out the Congressional elections won, Congressional control by GOPers, WH elections won, multiple terms by GOPer Prezs and such over the last few decades. We could also add GOP governors, GOP controlled state legislative chambers for 1-2 decades, state judicial benches and such and you'd still be on the losing end of your fallcious and pure fantasy claim that the GOP was dead decades ago.
The only "dead thing" in politics are the Libertarians who still work every event like they're recruiting for the Mormons or something... the only "dead thing" is your opinion that the GOP is finished. Take a look at the popularity of today's Tea Partys and tell me the hand on the tiller of most local and state events isn't a long-serving, activist GOPer?
Nice try at 'pressing your opinion; but it's uninformed and fallacious. Facts are pesky buggers when you look at decades of political action.
Fetal position? The GOP? Oh yeah, that's why the electoral victories I pointed out above happened... the GOP was in a fetal position. Winning all those elections is such a loser? Go figure?
But then, in your Alice-n-Wonderland reality, I guess win means loss, up means down, strong means weak. Maybe you should stick to AnnLanders and leave AynRanders alone?
Humanism and academia
... along with the AFT, which embraces both. All the more reason to support charter schools and voucher programs.
Should the GOP endorse humanism? Hardly.
Some things might be fashionable for the moment, but over the long term, whatever charm they held fades away.
Same-sex marriage is not an issue of tolerance, but one of deference.
"Tolerance" means only to agree in full with the most fruity sob on the planet without hesitation. Any deviation in thought is to be considered intolerant. There seems to be some ideal that has cropped up that would suggest that tolerance is best expressed in the complete uniformity of thought.
The republican party died a long time ago
The republican party died decades ago,it was invaded by the religious right,the neocons, from the democratic party who fled to republican party after the radical left took control of the democratic party.The Gop masscarades alot as the party of individual rights,free markets,liberty and freedom but does the opposite,and enhances more government control over the lives of the people.The republican party is a corpse, a mummy just now waiting the final stages,embalming and a death certificate, to prove death by natural means.
Anybody like me asking how did the country get to this place,how did things get this bad,in the country of the founding fathers.The answer is BAD PHILOSOPHY GOT AS HERE AND ONLY GOOD PHILOSOPHY WILL GET AS OUT,If you can visit the site AYNRAND.ORG.
I hope that death certificate is given to the GOP quick so all them can go something else other than continue to appear on foxnews pretendin that the party is alive.
GOP, Christian Right & Gay Marriage
I guess that I'm part of the socially conservative bloc that just wants to worry about my own life and living it according to my morals and faith. I don't want a political party to infringe upon my religion and I don't want any religion to insert itself in an instutionalized way in my politics.
I personally find homosexuality to be deviant but that's just from my own constructed norms and don't wish to inhibit their freedom. I guess that I know that I'm not God and it's not my place to judge others in that way.
On the subject of God, I recently read an article that said that the % of Americans that consider themselves agnostic/aethiest has almost doubled since 1990. If memory serves it said that then 8% claimed no belief in God and today it is around 15%. That's a big leap! I personally believe that alot of the turn off to religion was when the Christian Right movement began and politically isolated people who would otherwise consider themselves Christian. I believe that a Christian retreat from politics will prove to be a victory for the church and assist the GOP in becoming a more inclusive party. The tactic of Christians taking our work back to main street and moving off of K street will result in real grass roots movements that are more federalist in nature and less contrived.
Then again, I'm probably just full of cr@p and you shouldn't pay attention to a word I write.
Young Voters, GOP future, gay marriage
Kristen, you're right, of course.
As a gay GOPer, I can tell you that the GOP gains nothing but adding intolerant bigots to its ranks when it continues the 20+ yr history, started by the social conservatives, to bash and demonize gays, gay rights, gay opportunity to equal treatment in the law and parity on gay marriage --whether that's civil unions, changes in tax codes, rights of surviorship, gay parental and adoptive rights, etc.
Little McCain has it right, too. Our future path to political power as a Party doesn't lay on the pathways of the past... it lays on a path that is forward looking and progressive on these issues. It's why those who are most concerned about the GOP's positioning on gay rights will be the farLeft... because they know it's the best motivating "red meat" issue to bring many of their voters to the campaign office, to the polls, to the net to donate.
The Left and the hardRight soc-cons inside the GOP have the most to lose if the GOP adopts some neutralish position on marriage equality... one group because it's their stock & trade "red meat" motivator... and other group because it's ALSO their stock and trade "red meat" motivator.
Thanks for putting a fine point on the merits.
The Republican Party Died.....
In this last election the right drove away All major metropolitan areas; it drove away young people 2 to 1; it drove away hispanics 2 to 1; it drove away virtually 100% of blacks; it drove away affluent diverse suburbs in virtually every major city in America. It was hard for TV cameras to find a black face at the GOP Convention. Bigots waited in lines to see Palin at rallys and regularly talked racist trash to the cameras.
Soon you’ll be left with the southern core of the Confederacy and states where nobody lives - like Wyoming. Texas and Arizona will be in play in coming elections with the growth of the hispanic vote.
Then you will have a nice pure southern rural waiting for the rapture lilly white party! (but you will have your virginity - ahhem - principles). The hard right is currently a shrinking minority painted into a corner and talking only to themsleves..
Once upon a time Nelson Rockefeller, Jacob Javits and Everett Dirksen were Republicans. Now you call them RINOS. Enjoy your little corner of the world.
GOP Not Dead Just Lost
Yes, the party has lost a few elections in recent years. Yes, we seem to be without a leader. Dead? No. Just a bit out-of-touch. Remember, from 1994 to 2004, the GOP did very well in a majority of elections. Before that, with the exception of 1992, the party was also very popular. From 1952 to 2008, 9 Presidential elections have gone to Republicans, while 6 have gone to Democrats. In each of the last 4 cases, the "end" of the Republican Party seemed inevitable to many people. After Watergate, the Democrats probably thought they would win the next 20 years, but only wound up winning two elections, one a mid-term. The 1976 Presidential election was much closer than expected, with one of the closest elections of the 20th century. That was only 2 years after the disgrace of Nixon's resignation. The failure of the Carter administration led to the overwhelming wins by Ronald Reagan, a new kind of Republican leader.
Following the unfortunate GOP loss of 1992, Bill Clinton made enough missteps to usher in an era of Republican congressional victories two years later. Some believe that if a stronger candidate had been chosen in the '96 elections, Clinton may not have coasted to victory. Then the party had a good run until 2006, by which time the Republicans had forgotten why people elected them to begin with.
All the GOP needs now is genuine leadership throughout its ranks. And perhaps, as the McCains advocate, a few changes in the party's outlook. There should be a distinction between moral issues (such as abortion, which many believe to be a form of murder) and social issues (such as consensual relationships between adults that are not harmful to general society). The reason the GOP youth are less aggressive in the culture fight against gays is that, in today's world people know better what it means to be a gay person. More people know someone personally who is gay than ever before, and that has changed the perception from a demonized vision to a human one. The far right needs to acknowledge this shift. It doesn't mean giving up their views, or even advocating "gay marraige," but it does mean finding a way to better understand the people they denigrate. When that time comes, the Republican Party will regain its electoral confidence.
Paint, if you will, a picture
Paint, if you will, a picture of what you think this new and improved Republican party will look like. And how soon do you think this animal will come into existence?
Interesting Problem
There's lots of theories bouncing around right now about what the GOP's problem(s) is right now. I'm emotionally drawn to the conservative movement as dieing Southern/far right evangelical party destined for the dustbin or a rebirth as something vastly different, but that's just because I'm decidedly not conservative (in the modern, mainstream, American version at least), so I'd like that to be the true theory.
But there are many elements that even someone like myself find valuable in the various American political traditions that get clumped as on the conservative side of things, and all of those plus many other elements I find quite awful still have strong support among our citizens.
Despite voters' well known short memories, it seems to me that the bad taste left by Bush/Cheney and the particular incarnation of the Republican party of the past 40 years finally getting to really do its thing will take a while to wear off. I hope the time in the wilderness eventually allows some elements other than the bigotry and general backwardsness that currently dominates the GOP to take center stage. Turning away from once again being the party trying to take advantage of the last politically acceptable form of violent hatred and bigotry for evanescent political advantage would be a good start indeed!
Legal Issues
Here's the thing. Under the law each person is a corporate entity, when one person sues another his corporation is actually suing the corporate entity representing that other person. This is basic law.
Now correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it the GOP is generally pro-capitalism, and part of that is limiting government interferance in business and corporate activities. Part of this means that when two business companies wish to form an alliance no one ever asks whether or not both the owners of that alliance are male. The sex of the corporation is not an issue.
Yes I know what you're going to say; "Marriage and a corporate alliance are not the same thing." And you're right! I agree, Marriage is a ritual that is considered sacred by every religion in the world and the vast majority of people everywhere. But a corporate alliance is a legal merging of assets and a sharing of mutual benefits and there is no ritual to it beyond what the corporations involved might wish to incorporate.
Obviously these alliances can and should not be called marriages because a marriage is a religious cerimony sanctified by god and recognized by the state. However atheists are able to have state recognized civil unions conducted with no god sanctification, these are just simply a way for these people to file their taxes together and stay in hospital after-hours when one of them is sick. This is allowed because being an atheist is legal in America. In most States being gay is legal too, so why are the corporations of two people of the same sex not allowed to form an alliance when there are no legal problems with it?
not all religions ritualize marriage.
Look up: Quaker Marriage. ;-)
not all religions ritualize marriage.
Look up: Quaker Marriage. ;-)
Thank you for this
Thank you for this informative read, I really appreciate sharing this great post. Keep up your work. burs
sbs sonucu
nedir
Celil's World
This is an important issue
This is an important issue for the GOP AND for the GLBT community. As a gay Republican, I know.
At the Drawnlines Blog, I've posted two articles that are pertinent to the issue and which you might enjoy. Please feel free to stop by and leave a note.
Will the gays leave the Dems at the altar?
http://drawnlines.blogspot.com/2009/03/gays-to-leave-democrats-alone-at-...
Expanding the GOP Tent
http://drawnlines.blogspot.com/2009/04/expanding-gop-tent.html
Nick Stone of the Drawnlines Blog