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Polling Update: Hillary Outperforming Obama in National Polls vs. McCain

Submitted by Kristen Soltis on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 14:33
in

(We're pleased to welcome to these pages Kristen Soltis, director of policy research at the Winston Group, a Republican polling firm. -Patrick)

With Senator Obama claiming a majority of pledged delegates and an increasing number of superdelegates, it appears that Senator Obama's path to the Democratic nomination is clear; his nomination almost a foregone conclusion. (Just ask Tim Russert!)

But polling data is a fun thing, and this morning's two newest national polls show Obama slightly behind McCain or running even with him, while Hillary Clinton is ahead of McCain in both polls. 

The Gallup five-day running average from their tracking shows McCain ahead of Obama, 47-44.  Yet in a head to head with Clinton, McCain loses by three, 45-48.  Take a look at the trending throughout May - Obama and McCain swap in and out of the top spot with each other four times in this one month alone, while Clinton never once gives McCain the edge. 

 

It's not just showing up in the Gallup numbers, either.  Newsweek also released a poll over the weekend, showing Obama and McCain tied (46-46), while Clinton beats McCain by four points (44-48). 

What does this all mean?  Well when it comes to a presidential election, national polls can be tough for divining predictions, as our electoral college system favors analysis of statewide surveys.  Not to mention, with many months before the election, it's always best to expect the unexpected. 

But in the mean time, today's two big national poll releases seem to validate Hillary Clinton's argument to the superdelegates that she is the stronger candidate against John McCain in a general election.

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The significant numbers are

Submitted by Lisa on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 14:57.

The significant numbers are not nationwide popular polling, but the state-by-state electoral projections. In those, Hillary performs slightly better than Obama, but either one defeats McCain. Clinton is able to carry Arkansas and Florida. Obama is able to carry Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan. Nevada and New Mexico are polling in a statistical tie.

This is where VP selection becomes so crucial for McCain. You've gotta go with a candidate that boosts your overall support, but more importantly, one that will pull a couple of swing states.

Also significant: California is considering a sanctity-of-marriage initiative on the November ballot. That could result in a huge GOP turnout in California. If the GOP pulls California and Florida, the Dems would have to win every other swing state to win.

The problem with any scenario

Submitted by Kevin Boyd on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 15:33.

The problem with any scenario of the GOP winning California is the following:

1) Too many blacks

2) Too many young people

3) Too many affluent urban and suburban whites

4) Too many Hispanics

5) Too many Asians

True, but consider the following

Submitted by whiteking910 on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 15:57.

1)  Blacks will come out in force for Obama, but they are no longer the power in CA they once were, having been supplanted by Latinos.

2)  Young people are notoriously unreliable on Election Day.  They talk big during the campaign, but are not known for voting when the time comes.

3)  CA does have a lot of affluents who vote Dem, but there are also a number of affluents who vote GOP.  This is a bloc that is not the sole province of one party.

4)  Latinos have never had a better friend in the Senate than John McCain.  This can be a bad thing at times, but tThe fact that a lot of Latinos are working-class and are not exactly thrilled with Obama can help McCain immensely.

5)  Asians are unpredictable.  While many are Dems, there are also a good number of GOPers.  The bloc is not solidly in one camp.

California is a Dem stronghold, but the GOP can take it.  And if McCain wins CA in November, he'll have won the election.

 

 

 

 

 

Polling, at this point in the

Submitted by goldglove51 on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 15:24.

Polling, at this point in the campaign, is good only for junkies.   The electorate isn't engaged yet, and won't be until after Labor Day.  Too much can happen between now and then to put much stock in what they say today.  If Obama continues to see dead people in his audiences, Joe Kleinn will have to say something.  

Obama has some serious problems with even his own base, as does McCain.  Both think they can get by with 'swing' voters (translation:  idiots who dream of the day Frank Luntz asks them bloviate about "bipartisanship" on one of his focus groups), both are wrong.  For McCain, no conservatives, no Oval Office.   

John Bolton for Veep.

 

 

No way, no sir

Submitted by ohmmade on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 17:29.

"Obama has some serious problems with even his own base"

Are you nuts? Obama has his base completely on fire, going crazy, ready to storm the polls at any moment. His crowd of 75,000 in Oregon compared to McCain having no ticket sales in his home state, causing him to hold the fundraiser in a private home, shows just who has the momentum here.

There is no denying the force that the Obama base is storming this country with. He got 40,000 in Springfield, Ohio, in sub-freezing temperatures. He consistently has more people show up to his events than most sport teams do. It seems that Obama is currently only 2nd to NASCAR in attendees.

 McCain's base is the conservative party, even then, he strays from the pack with his views on lobbyists, immigration, and his war fever. Conservatives are biting their tongues when asked about him, while Dems and Liberals are foaming at the mouth over how much they love them some Obama-juice!

Am I nuts?  Perhaps, but I'm

Submitted by goldglove51 on Wed, 05/28/2008 - 10:19.

Am I nuts?  Perhaps, but I'm right.  The Obama base is the Democrat base, and that is anchored by women and white, blue collar union types, two groups with which Obama has serious issues.  He may have gotten 40,000 out in Ohio, but he lost that state by more than 10 points.  Polls also consistently show that anywhere from 20 to 30% of Hillary voters will not pull the lever for her primary opponent.  His popular vote lead (absent MI and FL) is almost exactly equal to his majority in Cook County only...some 400,000+ votes.  I'm not sure, but I don't think he can have a popular band play at each polling precinct to pump up his numbers.

Now it's clear you love you some Obama-juice, but that won't get it done in the general, sport. 

 

 

hmm 45%

Submitted by karasoth on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 15:31.

Isn't that the same as Hillaries never vote #s?

Polling at this point in the

Submitted by Cerebral Alpha on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 15:58.

Polling at this point in the race is good for determining one thing: momentum. Clinton has it.

This is only the Gallup poll....

Submitted by ohmmade on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 17:31.

SUSA has Obama wiping the floor with McCain almost everywhere. Besides, Hillary's supporters will surge to Obama once the nomination is locked away. So, expect a very unified Dem party come November, with a fractured GOP due to the parties downfall, as well as the siphon that will be Barr.

Are you f*****g kidding me?!?

Submitted by whiteking910 on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 18:07.

What are you, crazy?  The Dems are far from united.  The Dems are divided between Hillary and Obama.  And the idea that the loser's supporters are going to forget all the bitterness after the convention and kiss and make up is pure idiocy.

This primary has split the Dems down the middle.  If Obama garners the nomination, expect Hillary supporters to desert in droves.  The fact that McCain is one of the most liberal Republicans in the party does not bode well for Obama.  Obama's black-and-elitist coalition is goin to have problems with McCain's more centrist appeal.

No, I'm not f*****g kidding you!?!

Submitted by ohmmade on Tue, 05/27/2008 - 18:47.

Sorry, but every poll shows that the Dem party (not the junkies like us) will vote for either Obama or Hillary, at an average of %82. An average of %60 want to see a BO/HRC ticket. The junkies and hardcore supporters (nor the punditocracy) are in no way a reflection of the voters.

 I think it's very safe to assume that this percentage will only grow as the nomination is sealed.

 

To think that McCain, who has voted with the GOP&Bush over %80 of the time, is somehow "Liberal" is laughable, at best. Misleading, more likely.

Obama doesn't have a "black and elitist" coalition. When I look at the 75,000 people in extremely white, extremely middle and lower class Oregon, I snicker at the thought that any of these people are either "black" or "elitist".

Let's look at these states that he's won so far, and you tell me if these are all "black" or "elitist" people:

Oregon, Wyoming, Texas, Wisconson, DC, Virginia, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, North Dakota, Montana... etc etc etc

 

Please, if there's to be a debate here on these issues, let's not go down the Malkin/O'Reilly road of misleading numbers, false rhetoric, or plain fabrications. That stuff is useless and I really hope this blog is a place where that talk has no traction.

Well, let's do sume f**king parsing

Submitted by section9 on Wed, 05/28/2008 - 14:10.

 Okay, I won't whistle past the graveyard. 75K in Portland is fantastic turnout, the rock band they had as a warmup act notwithstanding. It should be noted that Kerry Edwards had some similar turnout during their campaign.

However, let's be clear, he won several of the states you listed through Caucus Land, where real people don't go to vote. Hillary should be their nominee. If she had Patrick or any one of half a dozen seasoned Republican operatives working for her, she'd be on her way to Denver right now. But she made the mistake of not trusting anyone outside of her loyal circle of advisors. 

Wyoming, TX, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah, Kansas, North Dakota, and Montana are in John McCain's pocket as we speak. VA and Colorado will have to be fought for tooth and nail, but they're both winnable and should be McCain leaning. 

BTW, anyone who suggests to JMC to put significant money in California should be immediately horsewhipped. I think we can agree on that. Oh, and May polling is totally pointless.