Ohio: The Purple Battleground State

Great summation of the state of play in the Buckeye State. Post your state-level analysis at The Next Right and we'll take a good look at putting it up front. -Patrick

Over on my blog, Weapons of Mass Discussion, I wrote a piece that featured a map that illustrated the  nature of the battleground state of Ohio.  I thought it might be interesting to see what the NextRight community thinks.

The RED counties voted for Bush in '04 and Blackwell in '06.  These counties represent the staunchest Republican counties in Ohio.

The PURPLE counties either voted for Bush in '04 and Strickland in '06 (more likely) OR Kerry in '04 and Blackwell in '06 (significantly less likely).  These counties represent Ohio's independents and in the case of southeastern Ohio, the GOP's best chance for winning the state.

The BLUE counties voted for Kerry in '04 and Strickland in '06.  These counties represent the Democrats' strongholds in Ohio.

Democrats own the urban areas of the state and northeastern Ohio.  Republicans hold the western third of the state.  One of the biggest political secrets in Ohio is just how well the GOP is outraising the Democrats for the state legislature. 

While the Ohio GOP has a long way to go in fixing the damage done to the brand in the wake of the Tom Noe and Bob Ney scandals, Democrats in this state have failed to close the deal with Ohio's electorate.  Disgraced Democrat and now former Attorney General Marc Dann ran on a platform against the so-called "culture of corruption" in the Ohio Republican Party and then turned in a mighty fine performance in getting tossed out of office himself.  Dann isn't alone: Democrats have had a number of scandals pop up that put big dents in to their reform rhetoric.  Recently made former State Rep. Matt Barrett (D) showed a nudie photo to a group of high schoolers at a presentation and initially tried to blame that on his son.  Former Cuyahoga County Recorder Patrick O'Malley (D) has been charged with obscenity.  A Democrat City Councilman by the name of Dennis Flores (D) faces a DUI and was arrested during a prostitution sting. 

To be fair, State Rep John Widowfield (R) recently resigned in light of an ethics violation; and Butler County Auditor Kay Rogers (R) resigned after the court unsealed indictments of fraud against her.

None of this stuff plays well in the Purple Counties.

Most of the Purple Counties are mildly conservative and support Christian values.  They are willing to fight for the Second Amendment and are pro-life.  Illegal immigration is something of a sleeper issue and depending on where you are, you might be surprised to find how the issue plays out.  Right now, I suspect that the most pressing issue these folks face is the high price of gasoline.

Does Barack Obama have a chance in winning these people over?  Does John McCain?  Polling would suggest that McCain has the advantage here and I would have to agree.

6/4/08 UPDATE:

In the comments, Sean asks if I could factor in the Clinton/Obama primary results.  Ask and ye shall receive!

The RED counties voted for Bush in '04 and Blackwell in '06.  These counties represent the staunchest Republican counties in Ohio.

The PURPLE counties either voted for Bush in '04 and Strickland in '06 (more likely) OR Kerry in '04 and Blackwell in '06 (significantly less likely).  These counties represent Ohio's independents and in the case of southeastern Ohio, the GOP's best chance for winning the state.

The BLUE counties voted for Kerry in '04 and Strickland in '06.  These counties represent the Democrats' strongholds in Ohio.

The BROWN counties are RED counties that voted Obama in '08 Dem primary.

The CYAN counties are BLUE counties that voted Obama in '08 Dem primary.

Obama did not pick up a single PURPLE county...

The BROWN counties are Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Deleware.  The CYAN counties are Montgomery (Dayton), Franklin (Columbus) and Cuyahoga (Cleveland).

Current strategy for Ohio is to surrender all five of these counties and the Republican still wins.  But I can't stress enough how important it is for John McCain to visit southern Ohio -- and not just for the Carl Lindner billion dollar fundraisers -- as a motivator for grassroots Republicans from that end of the state are the driving force for victory.

It also wouldn't hurt if McCain publically supported a few more conservative principles and didn't throw conservatives under the bus.  McCain has already trashed popular talk radio host Bill Cunningham for the crime of using Obama's full name which had the effect of turning off a LOT of the grassroots type of Republican that McCain is going to need in order to win here.  He has got to make inroads with conservatives or Election Night is going to be a LONG night...