Young and Parnell Locked In a Tight Race

# MY LAST UPDATE FOR THIS POST (I PROMISE) @ 1:35 PM Alaska, 5:35 PM Eastern #

99.77% of precincts reporting. 1 precinct left from the rural interior. Young has a 152 vote lead:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8618 votes - 9.21%
• PARNELL, Sean: 42387 votes - 45.31%
• YOUNG, Don: 42539 votes - 45.47%

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***** READING THE ABSENTEE TEA LEAVES @ 12:45 PM Alaska, 4:45 PM Eastern *****

Just talked to an operative in Alaska that was on neither side of the race, and he agreed with the previous analysis: "If Don pulls this one off, Don didn't win. Sean lost." Apparently, Parnell had around an 8 to 10 point lead this time one week ago, and then the DCCC sent out an attack mailer on Sean, as Jeff Roberts points out, and Don's campaign put out some well done TV and radio ads, like this one attacking the Club for Growth endorsement and support of the Lt. Governor.

Some on this post have blamed Gov. Huckabee and his PAC for endorsing Young, and even Ron Paul can out in support of Young. But the overestimated benefits of endorsements go both ways here. The Parnell campaign might have overestimated the power of Sarah Palin's endorsement, and the commenters below might be overestimating the power of Huckabee's endorsements. Endorsements are overrated!

But on to the future. This Anchorage Daily News item describes how the post-election day process will work in this race:

"There are also the 16,000 absentee ballots the division of elections mailed out. It has received back 7,600 of them and Gail Fenumiai, director of the state division of elections, said she didn't know how many of those have been counted. As long as the absentee ballots were postmarked Tuesday, the division will continue to count them for the next 10 days. Questioned ballots will be counted on Sept. 5."

If most of the absentee ballots haven't been counted, I would tend to give the advantage to Parnell because people have been able to send in their ballots over the past couple months, and the absentee electorate usually reflects people's opinions at the time of their vote (in these instances, when Parnell had a solid lead.) But who knows. The word is both campaigns are digging in their heels for a recount.

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**** YOUNG TAKES LEAD @ 5:15 AM Alaska, 9:15 AM Eastern ****

9 precincts left to go from rural Alaska, 97.95% reporting, and Young has taken a 145 vote lead:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8589 votes - 9.20%
• PARNELL, Sean: 42316 votes - 45.32%
• YOUNG, Don: 42461 votes - 45.48%

Unbelievable race! Ironman asks what Parnell could have done. As I say below, candidates need to introduce themselves (their story, their accomplishments, their unique qualities) rather than having a campaign based on your opponent being "Mr. Bluster" and the support of an extremely popular governor. I won't reveal who I voted for, but when you contrast yourself with your opponents, you can't just define your opponent and stop there; you have to define yourself as well.

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*** UPDATE #3 @ 3:30 AM Alaska, 7:30 AM Eastern ***

Still waiting for some precincts from the Aleutian Islands, Bethel, Nome, Kotzebue and Barrow. 88.81% of precincts now reporting, and Parnell's lead is now 142 votes.

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8501 votes - 9.17%
• PARNELL, Sean: 42060 votes - 45.48%
• YOUNG, Don: 41918 votes - 45.33%

And this from the press shop of Don Young a couple hours ago:

"There are several precincts still to be counted and an additional 4,000 Republican absentee ballots. Once these ballots are counted, Lt. Gov. Parnell and I will be able to detrmine what course our campaigns will take."

Send in the lawyers.

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** UPDATE #2 @ 1:24 AM Alaska, 5:24 AM Eastern **

Interior rural Alaska precincts are in, and Western and Northern rural Alaska precincts are still out. 83.79% of precincts reporting:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8380 votes - 9.17%
• PARNELL, Sean: 41613 votes - 45.56%
• YOUNG, Don: 41350 votes - 45.27%

Parnell leads by 263 votes. With more rural precincts to come and absentee ballots yet to be counted, I'm officially predicting a recount. Will Ledoux be the spoiler for Parnell?

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* UPDATE @ 12:55 AM Alaska, 4:55 AM Eastern *

A few of the rural Alaska precincts have come in and Parnell has expanded his lead from 232 to 367 votes. 76.26% of precincts reporting now:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8313 votes - 9.19%
• PARNELL, Sean: 41268 votes - 45.61%
• YOUNG, Don: 40901 votes - 45.20%

A few notes:

• Alaska is on it's way to the largest turnout for a primary in state history. It will probably end up anywhere between 35 to 40% turnout.
• The turnout for Democrats was up significantly since there were contested primaries in both the Senate and House races at the top of the ticket. This would typically not bode well for the GOP in November, with the exception that it is a presidential election year where conservatives will probably come out of nowhere to vote. Biden voted against Alaska's oil pipeline 35 years ago, and the plan is to drive that message up in the Last Frontier.
• A note to candidates paying attention to the Don vs. Sean race: never ever ever ever let your campaign be based on the endorsement of another person, even if that person has an 80+% approval rating. Endorsements are always overrated; increase your name ID and your on-the-ground communication with constituents on your own terms, not on the terms of your endorsers.

I'm headed to the gym in a few minutes ... I'll try to blog from my iPod touch or BlackBerry.

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It's 12:00 AM Alaska time, 4:00 AM EST, and incumbent Congressman Don Young and Lt. Governor Sean Parnell are locked in a very tight race. With 70.55% of the precincts reporting, here are the numbers:

• LEDOUX, Gabrielle: 8025 votes - 9.22%
• PARNELL, Sean: 39602 votes - 45.52%
• YOUNG, Don: 39370 votes - 45.25%

It's just as I predicted earlier today. Stevens, Begich, and Berkowitz run away with their wins.

For those who are supporting Sean Parnell, the good news is that he's leading. The bad news is that most of the precincts that have yet to report are mostly from rural areas outside of Alaska's road system where Don Young is likely to have an advantage.

This race most likely does not end tonight. Updates to come.