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No Risk, No Reward: Part I
Add yet another “R” to the things Republicans need to do to pull their party from the abyss: Risk. What sorts of risks can the GOP take? Let's start with policy. Consider some platform changes that may seem crazy at first, but if you’re prepared to embrace them, own them and see them through you could a) change the national conversation, b) restore your credibility on all this recent “freedom” talk, and c) win younger voters.
Here are 5 to start:
1. Legalize Drugs - You have turned a corner on this issue. All evidence and economics indicates that prohibiting anything for which there is a demand causes black markets. The black markets in drugs mean the costs of doing business are higher—but that means so too are the profits. These profits (and turf) are protected violently by gangs and drug cartels. Gang culture is built around said profits. Remove the profits through legal competition and the gangs fade away eventually (just as they did after alcohol prohibition was repealed). Yes, there will be secondary social costs. Yes there will still be petty crime due to addicts—despite lower-cost drugs. But you can offset those social costs by taxing the product to build rehabilitation centers, which are preferable to building more prisons and morgues. You get credibility points for admitting that people have a right to do what they like with their bodies. Freedom is freedom, warts ‘n’ all.
2. Civil Unions – Want to shake everybody up? Try this: The state should get out of the marriage business. Period. End the debate. Marriage is a matter for churches, mosques and temples. Civil unions ensure that people who unite contractually are treated equally before the law, as the Constitution requires. If a church is willing to marry two gay people, fine. It’s none of the government’s business. Government will, however, offer equal tax treatment. Civil unions cover this just fine and states may craft their own civil union variations. Ultimately, though, marriage is ritual and, therefore, a private matter.
3. Means-test Everything – If it is to exist, every federal social program should be designed to help the very poor. The middle class only a little. The rich none. Government welfare programs for the rich, such as Medicare, are insane. Let's say so. (That includes a louder call for bringing Medicare back from the precipice.) Shame rich, old people: “You cannot continue to rob the next generation and get away with it. You have more resources and your healthcare costs more. Pay for it. You owe it to ‘the children.’” Thus: No welfare for the rich. No corporate welfare.
4. Taxpayer Bill of Rights & Balanced Budget – After this monstrous growth of the federal government by the Obama Administration, people are very likely going have an appetite for some kind of limits on government bloat. A Taxpayer Bill of Rights – which would lock government revenues in at population plus inflation as measured by acceptable cost of living indices. Couple this with limits on national debt that would force cuts. Plus, say we’re not going to charge up the national credit card and the bill to Generation Y. This is grossly unfair. We need to have a limit on deficits and balanced budgets within a certain timeframe, or consequences will follow.
5. Global Warming: “More Technology, No More Taxes” - We’re willing to fund sequestration technology. We’re willing to fund geo-engineering technology. We’re willing to use X-prize-type contests to do it. But we’re not willing to tax the American people as they rebound from a severe recession—for all for a hypothetical “crisis” that has never quite materialized.
It’s time to be the party of ideas again. And ideas are risky. (Nos. 5 through 10 now up).
- Max Borders's blog
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Comments
I'm liking the legalizing drugs.
Can you put in a plank on rehabilitating criminals too, or is that too risky? Saving 4 dollars for every dollar spent seems like a good idea to me...
4) -- Is there some way we can be reasonably temperate on this? I want to allow for "The Big Bad" coming, in which case Hoover Strategies are NOT a good idea. Otherwise (per Krugman et al.) it makes sense to have some restrictions set up. But I do want to be conservative enough to allow for the "once in a hundred years" need to throw a badzillion of dollars at the economy.
5) Without taxes, how are we going to get any of this technology implemented? Do we want the Gov't to take over utilities again?
And do remember that geo-engineering is REALLY RISKY. It is NOT a magic bullet, just the "lets hope to hell this works" strategy of last resort.
Andrew Samwick has also
Andrew Samwick has also wondered the same thing: "People complain that the word "socialist" is being inappropriately used to demonize attempts at restoring economic growth. That may be true in many cases, but how is the label not valid here?"
online information technology degrees AND online network degree AND computer degree
As I noted above, the real
As I noted above, the real question is one of degree. Obama is not socialist. But he is more comfortable with centralizing economic power. As that centralization proceeds, the focus of public interest will shift from "how do we fix the immediate economic problems?" to "how do we fix the problems we created when we tried to fix that temporary problem?" That is when the pendulum can swing back towards decentralization and individual empowerment.
architecture degree online AND online art degrees
ooo. ideas. from a republican!
i like! remember, the idea is to come up with new ideas, and you have to start somewhere. well done :)
1- all drugs? highly unlikely. baby steps...small amounts of marijuana legal, lose the distinction between crack/cocaine
2- exactly right...this is what a limited government would do...equal rights for everybody and staying out of the church's business. why would a church have a problem with 2 people going to city hall, getting a license and sharing benefits? no logical reason. (but people have been saying this for years and the far right refuses to listen)
3- maybe more state delegation? federal money only goes to schools and unemployment benefits...maybe make it (gasp!) competitive, and the states that are the most efficient are first in line for funds.
4-i believe republicans have been talking about this for centuries, except as soon as they are in power nothing happens, and they expand the deficit as well. i (and i imagine other voters) will believe it when i see it. if a republican runs on a platform suggesting material spending cuts to popular programs, he/she has my vote.
5- sounds fine. im not a global warming alarmist, although i do think we can do more to protect the environment. i really don't pay much attention to this debate, although i think republicans need to engage in the discussion. as newt said, they making it so that voters choose between "bad ideas and new ideas".
two points in response
over here
Love it
1) If you can get the socons on board, that is.
2) Same deal here.
3) If you can get the age demographic that makes up the majority of the Republican vote (funny how people seem to only be conservative when it comes to spending money on OTHER people's programs).
4) Agree with Maleficient - like the concept, but we do need an emergency out clause.
5) Love the prize concept especially.
Great work!
Marriage is a ritual?
If so, then it's a ritual that every successful civilization has established over the last 5000 years. It may not be fun to be on the uncool side of this argument, but culture matters.
oh, yes my dear! In some cultures, they've seen the need 3 times
One marriage for propriety
Another for mating
And a third for raising of children!
kukuku
It's absolutely amazing what a course in anthropology will teach you, isn't it?
Want Freedom? Then you need School Choice & Healthcare Choice
We need HEALTHCARE CHOICE and SCHOOL CHOICE.
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2009/05/real-school-choice-vs-inter-di...
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2009/05/another-school-choice-success-...
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2009/04/failing-schools-are-failing-st...
5) Speaking of Taxes
How should we tax the "windfall profits" earned from some new geo-engineering breakthrough? How are such profits any different than the "windfall profits" earned by BIG OIL on the backs of poor Americans when the price of carbon fuels goes through the roof?
And perhaps OUR ADMINISTRATION could limit the compensation of executives of any geo-engineering company that develops such technology.
" Windfall"profits = leftist rhetoric
Profits are profits. It's just a way to make good ol' capitalism sound like a ripoff.
Like the 'tax loopholes'. These are IN THE LAW. If you want to 'end looholes' you dont raise taxes, what you do is go to a simple FLAT TAX system.
Flat tax is a fair tax. Tax all profits and capital gains and income at the same rate. Simple, flat, fair.
And keep Govt to under 15% of GDP instead of the massive 25%+ that Obama is growing it to.
betcha bought a lot of oil stocks
gullible much?
Circuit City made wonderful profits... before they hit Chapter 7.
Gullible libs talking nonsense again
Google profit margins are around 40% and they are in a business where they have a lock on their market due to the way synergies in media work. (natural monopoly). Microsoft has a lock on OS and major sectors of software market, margins over 25%.
Other tech companies have margins in the 15-30% range.
Oil companies? They are stuck in single digit margins over the long run. Nobody notices how its been not just last year but over the last 30 years. And lets not forget, the corps pay 35% on profit anyway - a very high rate.
Anyone who think oil co profits are 'windfall' are just plumb ignorant of business. The groups/organizations reaping the 'windfall' on oil are GOVERNMENTS. 80-90% Of oil revenues end up in the pocket of the Governments in one form or another. either our govt or the govts in saudi arabia etc.
anyone who uses Microsoft on a commericial basis
deserves to be shot by the beancounters. Google doesn't have a monopoly -- yahoo competes effectively by offering a different, yet comparable product.
Yeah... you're ignorant of deliberate profit inflation so that the big cheeses can get out of the business. You wonder why they press so farking hard on "global warming doesn't exist"?
Illustrating absurdity
Is anyone here familiar with the concept of pointing out absurdity by being absurd?
15% solution
These are the two good ideas.
I call it the "15% SOLUTION" - we should limit the Federal Govt to 15% of GDP. At the same time we should limit the amount of transfer payments to the 15% who are most in need, and let self-reliance, choice, freedom and quality via market solutions be the answer for 85% of folks. This is a system that is the best of freedom, but still has a safety net. A safety net does not require destroying good solutions for those who take care of themselves.
The Democrats have a worse answer - they will destroy private health insurance for 85% in the name over getting from 95% coverage to 100% coverage. That's nuts. Keep and imrpove the private health insurance system for those who dont need or want govt run healthcare. That's choice, that's freedom.
#5 is based on the flawed assumption that global warming is an issue, when in fact it is overhyped. We are better to debunk it entirely and move on to a plan of energy independence instead.
And #1 and #2 are whacky and wrong. young voters are increasingly prolife so we would win them with a focus on that.
assumptions?
These are age old arguements, but I'll bite for the sake of biting . . .
No matter what the cause . . . the ice shelfs are breaking off, permafrost is melting and mountain snow is receding. These aren't assumptions . . . these are things you can see and measure.
And stop calling it global warming . . . it's climate change. And rapid climate change . . . any rapid natural changes will cause great havoc. I've been through catastrophic natural disasters . . . and it is an awsome . ..awsome to behold the force of nature.
So I'm not a total doomsayer . . . the overwhelming consensus of scientist might be wrong. This is a bet you don't want to loose. It has the potential to be more destructive than any war we could have, but if government were to get behind some remedy . . . it would probably be a small fraction of what we spend on the military. We spend in preparation for a war with China, why not spend on the possibility of climate change?
Which party are we talking about here?
These are fine ideas, and I'm sympathetic to all of them. I just can't help but notice, however, that these ideas are cribbed almost directly from the Libertarian Party playbook. (Well, except for #3 maybe, as your doctrinaire Libertarian would want to end welfare, not means-test it.) This is an explicit call for the Republican Party to become more libertarian. I do think it has to become at least a little bit more libertarian, but I don't think the solution is to outright confiscate the LP's platform. The bottom line, is that if Libertarian Party ideas were so popular, then their candidate would have been the one to receive 48% of the vote last election, instead of the paltry <1% that LP candidates usually receive. (And this is coming from a guy who was actually in that 1% in 2000!)
Case in point: Drugs. Can you point to me any survey or poll, anywhere, that suggests Americans are in favor of legalizing all drugs? Sure there is considerable debate over marijuana, but for meth, crack, heroin - I doubt you could find more than 5-10% who would favor legalizing these. So how is this a winning issue politically? We Republicans are constantly told that we have to change our platform to more accurately reflect America's modern values. How would proposing that all drugs are legalized help in this regard? I think, instead, the reaction would be that we Republicans are on drugs ourselves to have proposed such a crazy scheme. Now, personally, deep down in my libertarian soul, I would want to see drugs legalized. I know the logical arguments in favor of prohibition are flimsy at best. But this is where America is, so much so that both Democrats and Republicans have achieved a consensus on this issue.
While I definitely agree that the Republicans could stand to become more libertarian, I don't think the Republican Party should give up on the central difference between the GOP and the LP. This difference, as I perceive it, is that Libertarians believe public policy should be designed with the individual in mind, while Republicans believe public policy should be designed with the family in mind. I think this is ultimately why the Republicans have been more successful than Libertarians over the years.
I agree 100% , GOP > LP on family issues
I agree. GOP needs to be centered on a pro-freedom agenda, but there are reasons why it cant or shouldnt go LP.
The LP fails on 2 levels: one is as a third party.
The second is LPs exclusive focus on individual liberties, ignorance/ACLU-wrong-view on some social issued, and lack of focus on the supporting voluntary associations that are needed to make a free society work: Family, church, local community, etc. The Burkean 'little platoons' are needed.
Some thoughts
1. This seems like a progressive idea and seems out of place, but I mostly agree with it. I don't think you fully "legalize" hard drugs, but instead regulate them. Just like "hard" prescription drugs (Oxycontin, etc.), unlimited quantities should not be legal.
2. While I agree with the concept, this strikes me as just name calling. Basically you want to pout and say the gays can play the marriage game 'cause teacher is making you play fair, but you aren't going to let them use the "marriage" word. Deal with it. Everyone should be allowed to get married under the law, and also under their church if they'd like to do that too. It's no different than being an adult in a church by going through rights of passage versus becoming an adult under the law by turning 18. People can differentiate between the two quite easily, no need for different names for the same concept.
3. While the means testing idea sounds good in theory, I'm not sure it's so easy in execution. There are always loopholes and places where exceptions must be made, so it's a matter of how well you can really define this concept.
4. First of all, the monstrous growth has been going on for a lot more than 4 months. The "party of accountability" needs to start acting accountable if they want to have any credibility on this. Secondly, balanced budget amendments are proving to be a really bad idea in some states, worsening the recession by causing cuts at the worst time. While the concept sounds good, I've yet to see it executed well. Limited rainy-day funds and political practicality being most of the problem. What works for your household budget voted on by yourself and your spouse does not work when if you start allowing your neighbors to have a say. Again, this needs a lot more detail before I'd get behind it.
5. Geo-engineering is like flying cars - while possible, I'll believe it's practical when I see it, and like flying cars, I'm not going to be surprised if another 50 or 100 years passes with no progress on that front, so I'd say forget about it. Kicking the can down the road and/or sticking your head in the sand does no good. If Republicans want to be relevant on the environment, then they must start listening to the consensus of scientists on these matters - which means admitting that human caused global warming is a pretty well established theory, kinda like the theory of gravity. It's an unfair tax on citizens to allow polluting industries to take natural resources and damage citizen's livelihoods at little or no cost. If the citizens of the U.S. own the coal, oil and other resources under the federal land that much of it is extracted from, why are we practically giving it away so the industry can turn around and charge us for it's use, increase our healthcare costs through pollution, damage fishing resources, beaches, etc.? You can call the increased cost a "tax," but what we have right now is a "tax" on clean energy sources by allowing these external costs to be ignored and passed on to citizens in indirect ways, thus subsidizing polluting industry. I think this issue is being looked at totally backwards. Conservatives should be concerned with conserving resources for future use and future generations, conserving the current climate and conserving clean air and waterways. This point definitely needs to be rethought.
mal, your name looks too much like mine!
*stomps foot*
Whyever did you choose such a name?
I begin to ask myself if this is what ladies feel when they show up wearing the same dress to a dance.
I noticed that too...
I've been using this name (or the 8-letter truncated version, "Malevole") online since about 1995, back in the scary days of BBSes. I'm stuck in my ways and not about to change now! Even though I've only started posting here recently, so you might have been first here, I guess we'll just have to deal with the awkward matchy-matchyness!
well, yes, I was first here
but... i was using the name RisingTide until the mods got the confounded idea that I was somehow threatening politicians!
I made this name on the drop of a hat, to make fun of their utter nonsense.
next time someone gets us confused, I'll change it. ;-)
Thanks for this post . . . embrace imperfection.
None is these proposals is perfect, and even if they were, politics would render them imperfect in execution.
As has been stated here . . . don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. This is about taking risks and with risk comes dissention, but I agree with just about everything here . . . mostly. But mostly is good enough for me.
Thanks for taking a rhetorical, polemical and ideological step forward!
All these are interesting but...
None of these is a bad idea; all are interesting. However, all have been proposed multiple times before and there are reasons we don't do them.
1. We're still recovering from the discoery of cheap distillation; its social cost is remarkably high. The risks of adding additional drugs are unpredictable. Probably it's better to decriminalize usage and possession without allowing the encouragment that true legalization would entail.
2. You wan to cap government spending at any arbitrary amount? How well has that worked out in California? It's a democracy; if you don't like how it's run vote, for someone else, don't say you can't even trust yourself.
3. Taxing CO2 or carbon or anything else is economically neutral; you just use the funds to reduce social security taxes. You don't trust the government to do that? Vote for someone else.
Civil unions is fine, but it's hard to see as a particularly political idea.
Which leaves means testing. Seriously sensible. And since it gores everyone's ox--and we have a government that can't even cancel farm supports or unneeded military purchases--it's hard to see it passing. Still, I keep saying it's a democracy, so go for it.
Which brings up the last point: politics is the art of the possible. Do you imagine anybody could possibly run on a platform like this and win? or place? or even show up?
Not to mock it: we need more ideas. We need more sensible debate. Good luck.
C02 taxes are destructive
Not quite ... Taxing CO2 is destructive; removing the destructive impact of some OTHER tax may create a net balance that is neutral in net burden on economy. (Which is I think what you intended to say.)
And no, I dont trust the Govt, especially under Democrats, to work it out to actually achieve that particular miracle.
It isn't a prescription for "risk-taking", but it is for failure
Max, with all due respect, this is a list better suited for the marginalized 3rd party types over in the LibbieParty than responsible, constructive policies for the GOP.
First, you'd have serious problems finding any responsible leader inside the GOP with a scant teaspoon of credibility who could argue in favor of illicit drug legalizations. Whether that be coke, dope or crack. But it does fit nicely with the nutjobs over at the LibbieParty who want nothing more than hit their bong and cop a ride on the dream machine of a chemically-induced, altered consciousness.
The same is true with items 2, 3, 4, and 5. I can't wait to hear the silliness and impracticality behind items 6-10... 'cause these first 5 are about as silly as suggesting we disarm the military and replace it with a civilian, volunteer militia ala the Colonial Period.
Risky because it's bold? No, risky because these are stupid and irresponsible policies as advocated in your post.
There are, to be blunt, a prescription for Failure with a capital F... as the LIbbieParty continues to prove on a semi-yearly basis.
> But it does fit nicely
> But it does fit nicely with the nutjobs over at the LibbieParty who want nothing more than hit their bong and cop a ride on the dream machine of a chemically-induced, altered consciousness.
Do you really believe this? And even if it were true, why do you care?
Drug legalization is unpopular
"Do you really believe this?"
Yes, he does and on this I have to agree with Michigan-Matt. The polls are clear that this is an electoral LOSER. Most Americans OPPOSE legalizing drugs.
http://www.pollingreport.com/drugs.htm
CBS News Poll. March 12-16, 2009. N=1,142 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.
.
"Do you think that the use of marijuana should be made legal or not?"
.
.
.
And this is marijuana, considered by many not a bad as other illicit drugs. Advocate legalizing cocaine and heroine and you get single digits in the election.
I dont support medical MJ, but that is probably the one area/way to move in legalization direction, it polls much better.
Taxes, externalities and markets
On taxes and global warming, there are two issues.
1. Is global warming real? If your proposed party is going to take the position that global warming is not real, as much of the present party does, then there are many things down that road, including of course not having taxes to address it. If it is real then there is the question of whether the gov't should do anything.
2. Assuming that global warming is real, what techniques should the gov't use to address it. If part of the position should be that markets are good at allocating resourses efficiently, then it seems like market solutions should be preferred. If global warming is real then it is a textbook externality -- one where what you pay for energy does not reflect the overall cost of the good. A market based solution should then include making the price reflect the cost. The way to do that is with a tax on energy.
The gov't job isn't to pick the winners, it is to monitor the playing field. The game is skewed in the presence of externalities. The dogma on lowering taxes is blinding the party to the appropriate solution.
-Steve
global warming
Well, first I think we should distinguish between "global warming" and "anthropogenic global warming". Few doubt that over the past 100 years or so the planet has been getting warmer (although recently it's been getting cooler). What most dispute is the purported connection between the warming and the activities of mankind.
And if there is a connection between mankind's industrial activity and global warming, then you're right of course in an economic sense, a proper role of government would be to tax the externality in order to offset the costs of global warming.
I am just highly, highly suspicious that this crowd of Dems in charge actually believe in this sort of classical economic reasoning. I suspect, instead, that they are more strongly motivated by wanting to "punish Big Oil" or other pseudo-Marxist desires.
Moreover, a while ago I saw a discussion between Newt Gingrich and John Kerry about the environment. John Kerry, of course, was aggressively pushing the cap-and-trade idea. But one of his statements was revealing: he said (and I'm paraphrasing): "So what if anthropogenic global warming turns out to be false. What are the uninteded consequences of doing cap-and-trade anyway? Cleaner water? Cleaner air? Less dependence on fossil fuel? What's not to like?" It struck me that to them, global warming is just a stick that they use to beat back opposition to their more general environmentalist agenda. Even if global warming were false, they'd still be advocating these same schemes!
So I don't think it is wise for conservatives at this point to buy into the global warming charade, even if your technical economic argument is sound. We'd be buying into the much larger liberal narrative of environmentalism that we really don't want to buy into. Instead I think we should (a) stress the great benefits that industrialization has had on the world, especially in lifting dirt poor countries into relative prosperity and raising everyone's standards of living; (b) stress the huge costs and unintended consequences that a cap-and-trade scheme will level upon everyone; (c) stress the technological advances that we are making towards ridding ourselves of fossil fuel altogether, advances that don't require a burdensome cap-and-trade scheme and, instead, require a marketplace that is receptive to innovative technologies (like, say, a free market! wow!); and finally (d) stress the ability of the individual to pursue what's in his/her own interest; if you think global warming is this huge problem, then there are things you can do, on your own or with the help of your neighbors, that don't require a mammoth government bureaucracy.
The problem with global warming + free markets is
that even if global warming is as bad as they say it is, there are two things in the way of resolving it via free markets.
One is that even if global warming is true, not everyone would believe it is. People often believe bizarre and irrational things. They still kill people for witchcraft in Africa, for example, and don't get me started on Japanese pop trends and Scientology (a DC-130? really?). So, since free markets = free men, people would be free to pollute if they didn't think it would have an effect, much like industries did before the 1970s.
The second reason is because of the Tragedy of the Commons. This is an economic term that describes how individual gain can result in greater communal loss. The idea is that a group of farmers have a commons, or a meadow that each of them can use to graze livestock. In this case, one farmer can buy another animal and graze it on the meadow, giving him all the gain, and sharing the loss among all the farmers. The problem is that this is true ad infinitum, and if every farmer buys several animals, the commons is grazed out and useless.
I'd like to believe that our businesses are smarter than that, and can predict the consequences of their actions, but the current financial debacle makes that rather difficult.
in... africa? don't you mean Alaska?
;-) [am joking. I don't think Sarah actually KILLED anyone... drove them out of the town, yes... not killed]
Historically, the tragedy of the commons was always circumvented by a governmental system, where people decided communally how much to graize.
Property Rights fixed tragedy of the commons
Actually no, its the opposite. You see, the 'commons' was quasi-govt property. What fixed it was real property rights. A good farmer takes care of his land and doesnt over-graze.
read the fucking wikipedia article.
people lived in a communistic fashion for millenia. they didn't starve. your argument fails on so many levels.
My game has more pieces and interactions than yours does. this is why your game theory does not adequately model my game.
and i LIKE private property.
Cap and Trade is already too politicized to work
How does giving the governement billions of dollars ever solve any problem?
Already we are hearing that the coal producing states will fight for exceptions, that there will be tax credits for the poor that would be unable to pay their energy bills, that the administration will not support building more nukes . . .so what is the point? At the end of the day, the trillion or so dollars in what is effectively a new tax on consumers to get them (us) to change our behaivior is simply another redistribution of wealth. I don't really have a choice when it comes to how my energy is generated, so the only action I , as a consumer, can take is to cut back on energy consumption. Which equals a decrease in my standard of living.
A new Nuke plant costs about $10 Billion, creates permanent high paying jobs, and greatly reduces CO2 emmissions. The stimulous bill was $700 Billion dollars. No nukes mentioned though.
Congress is setting itself up as the dealer to redistribute the billions of dollars generated to favored constituancies (and contributors). If they were serious about global warming, they would be funding existing technology, like nukes, to help meet out energy needs.
permanent is not nuclear energy.
try again when you can tell me how long it will take to exhaust our uranium deposits at current trends. Then try AGAIN when you realize that everybody and their sister wants nuclear energy, as it's cheap, easy, and provides nuclear weapons.
Economists have a big consensus on cap-and-trade -- they really like it. They also like the idea of subsidizing the poor. I'd say they've got better ideas on it than I do --particularly when I see broad consensus across political factions.
nuclear works, cap-and-trade doesnt
try again when you can tell me how long it will take to exhaust our uranium deposits at current trends
One million years, using the huge thorium deposits in addition to plentiful uranium plus recycling of used nuclear fuel a la French MOX cycle.
Prof John McCarthy on why/how nuclear is permanently sustainable:
http://www-formal.stanford.edu/jmc/progress/nuclear-faq.html
I think we'll get fusion worked out well before then. ;-)
Economists have a big consensus on cap-and-trade -- they really like it. They also like the idea of subsidizing the poor. I'd say they've got better ideas on it than I do
Cap-and-trade has all the job-killing evils of a direct carbon tax plus the evils of corruption and Enron-style trading that will bilk electricity customers while making traders rich. That's why even some environmentalists have jumped off the cap-and-trade bus.
http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/14/magazines/fortune/globalwarming.fortune/...
Any economist who likes it havent done their homework on how cap-and-trade completely failed in Europe to actually cap anything, and just traded away industrial jobs to Asia.
Its a scheme that doesnt work, fails to solve a supposed problem that really isnt a problem, and costs a bundle.
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/commen...
We saw how unpopular bailouts were - how popular will it be to find out that electric bills are going to nearly double and wall street will get rich *pretending* to cut CO2 but not actally doing it!?!? ... See Gov Daniels comment:
http://www.courierpress.com/news/2009/may/11/11web-CapandTrade/
The silver lining for the GOP is that the House Democrats are committing Hari Kari voting for this and will deliver dozens of seats to the GOP in 2010 in their stupid rush to a very very bad bill:
http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=58877&catid...
IMHO blue-dog Dems - even if they vote against it - will get killed on it if it passes the House - because they voted for who the Speaker is, and she is making this bill happen.
Thanks for sharing the research on this
Its important that Cap and Trade never sees the light of day in the U.S.
there is published research out on the TMI explosion
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/3/24/712401/-People-Died-at-Three...I lived near there. I mislike people who only repeat self-serving research, while discounting the rest.
It's a good point on thorium. thanks for that. but your numbers are completely wrong.
I, like you, are anxious to see the fusion reactor fully funded. I want my damn prototype now! (thank the US Navy for the blueprints)
Not Perfect, and the socio-cons will revolt,
but it does warm my admittedly libertarian heart to see Republicans discussing these sorts of ideas. I want an alternative to the LP and the Lesser Evil.
Good Luck to all of you who are interested in deelivering the Republican party out of the Faustian bargain it struck with the Southern Strategy and the Reagan socio-con gambit.
A good start
In general, I think this is a good start a party I could support. I cannot in any way support the current Republican party because of:
There are other things, but that will do for now.
-Steve
life, taxes, and exec power
we have a lot of laws that limit people to protect others. Somehow there is a blindness to this except in a few rare cases like abortion. Is it 'self-righteous' to defend innocent preborn human life? How is that more self-righteous than say those who want to protect kids from child rapists? Isnt a non-busybody position to oppose taxpayer funding for abortions and protect the right to life?
Who is advocating for "no-tax"???? That's a new one to me. Any names? It would be an interesting position to take!
Surely it is consistent to be for lower taxes AND lower spending. It's also bad politics to be the 'tax collector for the welfare state'. Solution would be to explicitly advocate for a smaller and limited share of GDP for Federal spending, ie, Federal spending should be no more than 15% of GDP, instead of the 27% that Obama has made it be.
I dont think any Republican disagrees; that strikes me as a strawman that any Republican disagrees. The defense of Bush wrt GWOT is that he did what he did out of good faith and within the law, with a sole goal of defending our national security.
I would further add that the Federal Govt should be limited further with Federalist concepts, devolving more power to the states.
life, taxes, executive power
Regarging my 'self-righteous busibodies' and life: That isn't what I meant. Abortion is a fundamenally intractible issue that perhaps I'll talk about later. What I meant is more along the lines of abstinence-only sex-ed or the current hot topic of marriage equality for gay people.
Regarding my somewhat flippant 'no-tax' comment, perhaps 'no-new-tax' would be more correct, or 'no-problem-that-lower-taxes-won't-solve'. There is only one thing that can be said about taxes: they must be lower. Anything else is anathema and I think that distracts from a coherent discussion of what taxes are appropriate and which distort the economy in bad ways.
Regarding executive power, I think many Republicans do disagree, including the top levels of the previous administration. They very clearly stated that as long as they thought there was a security issue that the Commander-in-Chief could do anything he damn well pleased. This is Nixon's idea of "If the President does it, that makes it legal" on steroids. That is not acceptable.
-Steve
tax reform etc.
I dont see abortion as intractable, but rather it is viewed as intractable because the rationalization used to ignore the reality of preborn human life (a reality that hit home when I was my first daughters sonogram). There is a simple logic: Life biologically speaking begins at conception. We need to accord life some value if we care about humanity. If we are individuals who value 'life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness' we will accord that inalienable right-to-life a high value. Christians who see life a sacred accord a highest value (hence the prolife movement is animated by people of faith). Collectivists and atheists who think human life or rights might be secondary to other considerations will not.
Thus, by 'intractable' you really mean a 'values issue', which cannot be compromised in typical political fashion... otoh, I think that it could in a certain sense. First, by recognizing that such a serious question SHOULD NOT be decided pre-emptively by courts, but by democratic process. Hence, we are on legal and moral and political strong ground in proposing to undo the bad Roe v Wade decision and putting the matter back to the states and people to decide.
Frankly the ones wanting the non-abstinence form of sex-ed are more busybody-types, since they are imposing the 'education' at variance to wishes of parents. JMHO as I see it first hand as a parent. I find the vehement reaction by liberals to abstinence education as an indication that they acutally desire cultural degeneration, which is quite strange. (Claims that abstinence sex-ed doesnt work are bogus; it works better than regular sex ed.)
The real non-busybody non-nanny-state position would be to take sex-ed out of the schools and keep schools focussed on academics.
It sounds like you are in violent agreement with the tax-cutters but want the whole story not just 'tax cut = good'. Part of the problem the GOP created here was in making all tax cuts good, when in fact some tax cuts are much better than other ones. (Bush's fault - 2001 tax cuts were 80% middle-class exemption increases with only small rate cut.) example -there is a difference between lower tax revenues and lower tax rates. eg IMHO we should have a simpler flatter, fairer tax system that cuts tax rates and lowers economic tax burden. That might mean giving up some deductions to buy down the rate. What we have instead is IRS welfare checks that are called "tax cuts"...
your point is quite well taken. We need "Tax Reform based on Principles for Efficient Least-Harmful Taxation" not just "lower taxes!" ... I have thoughts on the Tax Reform issue here:
http://travismonitor.blogspot.com/2008/03/fundamental-tax-reform-15-solu...
I think you are talking of Cheney. I agree its not acceptable if that's his position, but dont think think he's gone that far.
unitary executive
He hasn't. The left has gone way overboard about the whole "unitary executive" idea. The "unitary executive" is the mind-numbing, earth-shattering, colossal idea that if an agency resides in the executive branch, that the president, because he is the chief executive, is ultimately in charge of the agency. Shocking, isn't it! What does it mean? It means that there really is no such thing as an "independent agency". No government agency is independent from politics. But the left has transformed this idea into "whatever the president says, goes", which is just false. Look, when the Supreme Court ordered habeas corpus review for enemy combatants, did George Bush fight it? No, he worked to comply with the decision. But if and until the court issues such a ruling, the president is still the chief executive and the commander-in-chief. Same goes for Obama as much as it did for Bush.
If you don't like the idea, work to reduce the size of the executive branch for ANY president, Obama or Bush. But don't try to push this partisan idea that "Bush tried to seize power". He, like any president, was the chief executive. Congress, in its infinite wisdom, has created a very large executive branch. Tell Congress to start cutting some executive branch agencies if you don't want the next George Bush to have so much power.
Abortion thought
Regarding abortion, here is my experience with "life begins at conception".
When my wife and I were first pregnant we were of course very happy, and then she miscarried at about two months in. That was sad at the time and I remember it from time to time.
Around that same time some friends of ours were pregnant and lost the child at childbirth. That is a hole in their lives and hearts that left them devastated and from which they will never fully recover.
In my experience, there is a huge difference from early to late.
-Steve
if life begins at conception... than it becomes a funding
imperative to save the 50% or more of cells that do not implant. I'm sure if we do enough research we can make sure women have twice the number of babies. In fact, I figure we already have medicines that will encourage such things. Now then, you've got the requirement to dose all women of child-bearing age with those pills. You must also remove all abortifacients from the medical section and the herbs from our gardens.
This is why life from conception is a bad idea.
The medical studies that I've seen on abstinence education say that it leads to more pregancies per student.
When we break our laws in order to torture people (torture occurred before Congress was informed), in order to find connections that Don't Exist between AQ and Iraq... Yup, unitary executive. When we break our laws in order to confiscate all forms of electronic communication in America, yup unitary executive (also design fuck-up. they can't actually sort through that much data).
It Used to Be the Party of Ideas
Good for you. The GOP would still be in power if it had run on ideas like these.
Repeat them and work on them.
And there's plenty of room for more.
Less long ago than it seems, the Republicans were the party of ideas. Unfortunately, credibility is harder to restore than to establish. I salute your efforts.
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