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Who Gets the VP Rose?
(Here's a post on everyone's favorite topic -- VP speculation -- from Republican strategist and former Romney senior staffer Mindy Finn. Don't forget to vote in our VP poll. -Patrick)
As Americans planned for the Memorial Day holiday, packing away their winter clothes, firing up their grills, and smiling at the thought of a three-day weekend (and the short week that follows), presidential candidate Senator John McCain was making unique holiday plans, vetting potential vice presidents.
Washington is abuzz over the special Memorial Day weekend invitations received by Florida Governor Charlie Crist, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Massachusetts Governor and 2008 Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney to McCain's Arizona ranch, the first visit by all three men.
McCain's camp denied that the invitations were extended for a vice presidential tryout; yet, the three men have been named by pundits and press for months as likely short list VP picks.
One can't help but envision a weekend in the style of the television show The Bachelor. In this modern mash-up of The Dating Game and reality TV at its worst, each potential bachelorette seeks to highlight her best qualities to win over the bachelor's heart and be chosen as his life-long partner. Someone is eliminated each episode when she is not granted a rose by the bachelor.
Which of McCain's Memorial Day weekend guests will get a rose? Is any of them "the one?"
Each candidate has his strengths and weaknesses.
Jindal comes with zero baggage, and he brings the youth and diversity (color) to the ticket Republicans could certainly use to compete against Barack Obama, or Hillary Clinton, for that matter. He has been remarkably successful putting Louisiana in ethical check in just more than four months as governor, pioneering unprecedented ethics reform in a state with a political record most famous for corruption. Remember, Republicans suffered tremendous congressional losses in 2006, in large part because of ethics.
Sounds perfect. So what could prevent him from getting a VP rose? He's only 36 years old, his intelligence, charisma and hard-charging approach could overshadow McCain. Plus, he just left Congress to take over the governor's office in January 2008 with bold plans for turning around his beloved home state of Louisiana. Abandoning that mission could soil his reputation.
Crist enjoys the vast popularity of Floridians, Republicans and many Democrats alike. He has the face of a potential president, and has proven his muscle as a campaigner. His well-publicized endorsement of McCain before the Florida primary has been credited for McCain's win in that primary, which helped propel him to the nomination.
Typically, presidential nominees look for vice presidential picks from key states that can help carry their home state. Crist could certainly do that.
So, what could prevent him from getting the rose? Party leaders and activists have expressed discomfort with Crist. He ran in Florida as a moderate and has championed efforts to curb climate change. He was even praised by former President Clinton for his efforts to restore voting rights of felons who have completed their sentences. With conservatives displeased by McCain’s less-than-conservative bona fides, it could be difficult or Crist to help ease their concerns. Also, Crist would be the first bachelor VP since 1853 (no pun intended).
Then there's Romney. As the second place finisher in the Republican primary, history might project that he would be a natural choice for vice president. He's comfortable with the campaign pace of a presidential campaign, has activists and donors at his fingertips from his recent campaign and could help unite the party and bring over conservatives. Romney also has executive experience on his side, having led major organizations in business, the Olympics and the state of Massachusetts. Presidential nominees are known to look for vice presidential picks who complement their own strengths; McCain's strength is foreign policy while Romney's is economic policy.
What might prevent McCain from giving Romney a rose?
Conventional wisdom during the tumultuous Republican presidential primary season was that McCain personally deplored Romney. If the desire is to pick a vice president who can carry his home state, McCain probably can't count on that from Romney. Massachusetts is historically one of the most liberal states in the U.S. And whether it should be or not, Romney's Mormon religion turns off many of the conservatives McCain has struggled to court.
The old cliche applies here. Nobody's perfect. Also the conventional wisdom of the 2008 presidential campaign is that there is no conventional wisdom.
So who will it be, and will the rendezvous in Arizona get McCain closer to political matrimony?
Ultimately, it's McCain's show, and he'll be left with only one rose to give away. But a bad choice will lead to more than just headlines on Entertainment Tonight. In this courting process, we, get the final vote in whether the couple was meant to be.
Instead of waiting for him to decide, perhaps we better voice our opinions loudly – here and now (in the comments or your own post) – before we’re left powerless only to sit and sulk.
Disclosure: The author was the Director of eStrategy for Romney for President from March 2007 to February 2008.


Comments
Crist
The issue with Crist is that he is not pro-life, and McCain himself has stated that he would be extremely unlikely to pick a pro-choice running mate.
My guess is that McCain will choose someone that none of us is expecting. I think John Kasich would be an intriguing dark horse. Someone like that who has been casually mentioned but isn't one of the supposed frontrunners.
Also
Huckabee wanted to be there but couldn't nor could Pawlteny. Maybe this was his club of "aint gunna get its"
Also in addition to his moderate credentials (vs his Conservative Reputation) Charlie Crist has a gay problem. He is likely gay. Gay Staffers have said they had sex with him and he's been a fixture before moving up the gop hierachy in florida in local tampa gay bars. I think a national media exposure of that would wound McCain
It's Romney
Romney will help appease the disgruntled conservative, he'll give McCain some badly needed credibility economically, and he'll pull Nevada and Michigan - two swing states.
Crist would pull Florida, but McCain's going to pull Florida anyway.
Jindal is risky with the race issue. I have Indian friends who are constantly facing ill-founded racial slurs and Muslim terrorist accusations. McCain needs to win over the ultra-conservative religious block, and right or wrong I'm not sure those voters will trust Jindal.
Huckabee would be an awful choice. He would alienate McCain's moderate and cross-party support, McCain's primary strength.
Romney will help appease the
Romney will help appease the disgruntled conservative
Really? When did conservatives embrace socialized medicine, higher taxes, "gun control", higher spending, taxpayer funded abortion on demand, No Child Left Behind, and amnesty for illegal aliens? Mitter wasn't part of "Rudy McRomney" just because conservatives were bored, he was there because he's a liberal like Rudy Giuliani and John McLame.
While Romney will make Some Conservatives happy
Most of us Remember he has made a Boondogle of a Health care program thats diriving private health care out of massachucetts and taxing people draconianly who refuse to sign up for the state funded monopoly
Notice
Notice I didn't say Romney *is* a conservative. I said I think he will appease the conservatives. In politics, appearance is half the battle. Romney has - for the most part - been able to maintain his conservative facade, and he had considerable conservative support through his campaign. Now, you and I may see through him, but there are a lot more voters who don't.
What Romney Brings to the table
Idaho is more solid for McCain, Nevada moves more Solid to McCain (that with his Hispanic advantage for Obama is a major deal) Utah goes More Solid for McCain (if McCain was at Risk of losing Utah he was in trouble) he probably nudges 2-3% points in Michigan maybe even as high as 5%. That with McCain's other advantages could push Michigan into the win collumn
but I think thats all he brings to the table
Exactly. Romney pulls
Exactly. Romney pulls Michigan and Nevada. That's huge. Utah is the reddest state in the union, so Romney's popularity there isn't much of a bonus.
I do think Romney has much more economic credibility than McCain does.
Outside of the government sector
In the government sector he has supported terrible economic policies
That still puts him ahead of
That still puts him ahead of "I don't really understand the economy" McCain. I don't disagree that Romney has his drawbacks...but I think he's the best option for McCain's VP slot. There's no perfect prospect.
Utah
I think people forget that Utah used to be one of the most reliably Democrat-voting states in the country. I don't own a polling firm or anything, but I don't know a single person here in Utah that's the least bit excited about voting for McCain, though most say they'll hold their noses and vote for him... probably. When Romney dropped out, a poll among primary voters that voted for Romney showed that they evenly split between Obama and McCain (25% each). I know a good number of people who say they'll stay home or vote for a third party rather than vote for McCain, including possibly myself. Now I'm certain that Utah will vote Republican this election, but I don't think that Utah is going to be anywhere near the lock for Republicans that it has been in the past. Not that big a deal, since Utah is a minor state, but I think it's indicative of bigger problems when McCain has weak support in this "reddest state".
One thing you learn after living here for a little while is that though Utah is very Republican, Utahans are not quite as conservative as they are Republican. Meaning that if a Democrat like Obama can make a convincing argument to moderate Utahans, he could easily gain himself a lot of Republican voters. Remember that FDR is still very well thought of in Utah.
Interesting
to hear your perspective as a Utahn (I don't know why - I always assumed residents were called Utes). Polls thereshow McCain ahead of Obama by about 35 points...it's one of McCain's strongest states. I think it's true that in states like yours and mine (McCain up by 40) and several others, the socially-conservative voters were disappointed with his nomination. But with the Democrats nominating a liberal instead of a moderate, the Dems aren't going to pick up much support in those states. Instead, as you suggested, the disappointed voters will reluctantly hold their noses while checking the box for McCain.
Nice Imagery
I like the part about "The Bachelor" and his rose.
The whole process seems about as authentic as that program.
Jindal has NOT reformed ethics
He has been remarkably successful putting Louisiana in ethical check in just more than four months as governor
No, he hasn't. In fact, at the last minute the wording "clear and convincing" was added to the legislation, effectively gutting it. And Jindal has not objected. Nor has the body responsible for enforcing all this been funded. We have great-SOUNDING, but largely unenforceable, ethics laws.
Although I've been a Jindal voter and supporter for years, and was *thrilled* with the job he did in the House, I'm very disappointed in him as governor. Toothless ethics reform, a state hiring "freeze" that is decidedly warm, huge proposed expansions in entitlement spending without any proposed cuts, trying desperately to exempt himself and his top staffers from sunshine laws, and first saying no outright to tax relief, and then allowing it, but delaying it until 2009. Unless he turns this around and gets back to being the conservative we elected, it's just the same old Louisiana politics.
Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose!!
Not to mention...
Jindal's hires (Chief of Staff Timmy Teeple, Executive Counsel Jimmy Faircloth, and Press Secretary Melissa Sellers), aren't exactly known in Louisiana for their integrity or competance.
Jindal's too young
Jindal is simply too young and inexperienced for the post of VP. I know people want someone relatively young to offset the age factor for McCain, but we want someone who actually knows what he's doing.
Same for Crist
Frankly if your a One Termer McCain shouldn't look at you
Lieberman for VP
I know a lot of people aren't going to be fans of this idea, but I support Joe Lieberman for VP. I do this for several reasons.
1. It would piss off the right people. A lot of Dems were already angered by Joe's refusal to accept his party's decision and his subsequent run as an indie. Could you imagine the rage from the moonbats if he ran on the ticket with the enemy?
2. Appeal. While some conservatives would be aghast at the idea. Lieberman, like McCain, is someone who appeals to the center. A McCain-Lieberman ticket would appeal to undecided voters and Democrats who have grown tired of their party being run by the kooks at Daily Kos and MoveOn.org.
3. Jewish vote. With Obama the likely Dem candidate, Lieberman as VP could accomplish two things. Although Jewish voters have usually supported Dems, Lieberman could help attract those who are already disturbed by the Obama campaign's increasingly anti-Israel, anti-Semitic views. Further, Lieberman could help the drive the point home that while Obama may not be a Muslim, he certainly has Muslim sympathies and that to elect a guy who is sympathetic to those who wish to destroy this country is idiocy of the highest order.
In conclusion, while I am a strong conservative and would have rather seen Duncan Hunter in McCain's spot, McCain is the man and I strongly feel that Lieberman is the right man for the job. His experience, unwavering devotion to our nation's security, and rogue status make him the perfect running mate.
Except for the fact that he's a flaming liberal...
Hey, I like Liebs too. He is spot-on on national security and the war. But he's also a flaming liberal on pretty much every other position he holds. The last thing we need is someone dragging McCain even further left. He's plenty left enough. He needs a conservative running mate to balance him out.
^^
^^
This is true. I love Lieberman as a person. I think he's a man of great integrity, and I still wonder if the Dems would have won with him in 2004. But he's not right for the GOP ticket. I don't imagine the GOP would allow McCain to go with him, anyhow.
If Lieberman is chosen, I'll
If Lieberman is chosen, I'll write in Fred Thompson. It was the Tom DeLay 'just win elections' attitude that has helped push Republicans down to where they are today; Democrat lite. I, too, admire Lieberman's commitment to security, and to our staunch ally Israel. That is all that I like about him. He is a committed liberal on nearly every other issue, and I'm not voting just to 'piss off' moonbats.
The only 'reaching across the aisle' I need to see is to smack some idiot Democrat in the face. "Bipartisanship' is simply code for 'vote my way', and all it gets Republicans are higher taxes, bad judges, new entitlements, and losses at the ballot.
It's bad enough that we're
It's bad enough that we're going to have a liberal at the top of the ticket, why do we want another liberal on the bottom?
Not Palin or Jindal
I think Palin or Jindal would be terrible VP Choices. They will detract from the McCain message of comptence and experiance. He should pick a younger vice president, but by younger i mean someone in his late 40's to early 60's. Plus Jindal is too foreign for american racists, but not exotic or barrier breaking enough to trump Obama. Palin has young kids, a deal breaker for national office, (it's a double standard for women, not fair, but what can you do).
Palin and Jindal are both superb potentil presidents for the future, why tain them now with what could be a loss in a horrible republican year, forever identified as a old republican.
Tim Pawlenty
As a long-time Minnesota Republican activist, and former elected official, I am reasonably acquainted with Governor Tim Pawlenty. Let me give you the pros and cons.
Pawlenty is a very impressive individual. Alarmingly smart and witty, he is outstanding speaker. He is self-effacing, friendly and impossible not to like. He is reasonably conservative on the fiscal side - rock solid on the social issues. He has led Minnesota during a period of budget deficits and has fended off tax hikes until this year when the Legislature managed to over ride one of his many vetos (gas tax and sales tax hikes to fund transit and roads). He has been, by far, the best governor Minnesota has had in my lifetime.
On the other side of the coin, he has bought the environmental nonsense hook, line and sinker. He is green and it is just not a political calculation - he believes in wind power, ethanol, bio-diesel and global warming. This is my biggest problem with him. Others, who have known him well and served with him in the legislature also complain, at times bitterly, about his lack of loyalty. It was the House Republican Caucus that secured his endorsement during the 2002 state Republican convention where he was up against a very conservative opponent - it went 14 ballots. After his election in November, the complaint was that he had forgotten where he came from and who his friends were. It is a feeling that many conservative office holders have to this day.
McCain could do a whole lot worse than Pawlenty. Tim deserves to be on any short list, if for no other reason that he remained on the stump for McCain when he was all but dead and buried. The problem, as I see it, is that Pawlenty has poor name recognition among the national conservative base. Romney would be better in that regard.
What ever happens, I'm not going to worry about Tim Pawlenty. He is a young man that is going places. Very impressive - very impressive indeed.
IMHO
we got Pawlteny or Huckabee getting the title
I still think we ought to go outside the pool of officeholders
Voters think politicians have failed them, not just Bush.
Thnking tactically, if we stay among the political class wouldn't Tom Ridge make sense? He clearly has the gravitas. His biography (blue collar "Nam vet) is a virtual clone of disgruntled Hillary voters. If Obama loses PA, he needs to run the table on the other swing states to win.
Is Ridge's record on abortion that bad? I thought he opposed PBA and favored parental notification. That's not in Joe Lieberman/Christie Whitman country on this issue.