What Happens This Weekend

[This is a heads up about the Virginia Republican Convention happening this weekend in Richmond, VA; we also expect to have some original reporting after the conference from people on the scene - Jon Henke]

So the wrangling and nastiness (should) end this weekend for Virginia Republicans as they hold their convention this weekend in Richmond.

They will choose a Senate nominee, who will begin his race as the most under of underdogs. Gilmore seems likely to get the nod. A cold comfort, really, considering the cast-in-stone narrative is that even George Washington would lose to Mark Warner.

But stranger things have happened...just ask George Allen.
 

As for the party chairman race, I've heard a lot of chatter about the tactics used on both sides, but more regarding those employed by Frederick. He is an able campaigner, but will probably not win the race. That's especially true if Gilmore wins earlier in the day, and disheartened Marshall delegates leave the scene. The confluence between Marshall and Frederick delegates is real, and the fates of their candidates are linked.

But will any of this matter in November, or even a year or three from now? Not really. The Republican malaise has very deeps roots that cannot be removed overnight. It's more than demographics, which plays a role in the party's fortunes. It's about the message.

One party member explained it this way (and I'm paraphrasing): The GOP's problems are in the suburbs, once its bastion of strength. Republicans are no longer talking about the issues on these voters' minds. It's not so much talking about abortion, guns and taxes -- those people generally get it (but it would help a lot if the GOP tax talk was credible, which it hasn't been for nearly six years). What they are concerned about is education, crime, the economy and their quality of life. Speak to those issues as a conservative, with optimism and confidence, and the chances of victory increase. Don't talk about them at all, or approach them in a Democrat-lite vein, and you lose.

Little of what occurs at the GOP convention this weekend will address such concerns. In many ways, that's just not possible...these are conversations that take time and thought, two qualities increasingly rare in political life.