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2010 Senate Recruitment Project
A big part of the Rebuild platform is running everywhere and not giving any Democrat a free pass. That should start in the 2010 races for the Senate -- and it needs to start now. Look how many previously popular GOP incumbents were taken out in 2006 and 2008 because popular Democrats decided to stake their careers on taking them out.
I've put together this prelimary list of potential challengers to all Democrat incumbents up in 2010. Many of these are simply readouts of statewide officeholders, and a couple of others come from this insightful Free Republic thread (go John Elway!). But we should not limit ourselves to this list. Who are the rising, outside-the-box leaders in the state legislatures or the private sector who could be enticed to take on the total Democratic stranglehold on government in the midst a deep, deep recession (wink, wink)? I want to hear some in the comments.
Among the most promising and potentially gettable recruits on this list are Elway (Colorado), Linda Lingle (Hawaii), John Hoeven (North Dakota), and Rob McKenna (Washington).
Arkansas - Blanche Lincoln
- Former Gov. Mike Huckabee - Run Huck Run! I really wish he would recognize that he has a hard ceiling for any POTUS primary run, but could be elected in a cakewalk back home. The Dems have no shortage of self-sacrificing figures like Mark Warner who could have gone higher but instead performed a valuable service to their party by limiting their longshot national ambitions, keeping themselves in the game, and growing the party.
- Former Rep. Asa Hutchinson
- Rep. John Boozman
- Note: Despite this being a McCain +20 state, there are NO Republican statewide elected officials and only 1 out of 4 GOP representatives. Arkansas is probably ripe for a some sort of organized project akin to Karl Rove's turning Texas red in the '80s and '90s and Tim Gill et al. turning Colorado blue in the 2000s.
California - Barbara Boxer
- Assemblyman Chuck DeVore (declared)
- Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger
- Rep. David Dreier
- Rep. Devin Nunes
- Rep. Mary Bono Mack
Colorado - Ken Salazar
- John Elway
- Former Gov. Bill Owens
- Attorney General John Suthers
- Rep.-elect Mike Coffman - former Secretary of State just elected to replace Tancredo, so it's unlikely he'd make a race in 2010, but he should be noted as a potential future statewide candidate
Connecticut - Chris Dodd (potential retirement)
- Gov. Jodi Rell
- Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele
- Rep. Chris Shays - defeated for re-election and would clearly not be a perfect Republican vote, but still has the best track record of surviving in Connecticut
- Former Rep. Rob Simmons
Delaware - Biden vacancy
- Auditor General Tom Wagner
- All ears for any potentially talented State Reps or Senators. We need to start somewhere.
Hawaii - Daniel Inouye
- Gov. Linda Lingle - term-limited in 2010
Illinois - Obama vacancy
- Rep. Peter Roskam - safely re-elected 58-42% in a close seat against the Obama tide; ran a great campaign in 2006
- Rep. John Shimkus
- Rep. Mark Kirk - hung tough in a liberal seat against an Obama-esque Dem nominee
- Mike Ditka
Indiana - Evan Bayh
- Rep. Mike Pence
- Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman
- Sectetary of State Todd Rokita
- State Treasurer Richard Mourdock
- State Auditor Tim Berry
Maryland - Barbara Mikulski
- Former Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (if not elected RNC Chairman)
- Former Gov. Bob Ehrlich
- Because of its proximity to DC, there may be somebody of national prominence who lives in Maryland, though they would have to start making a name for themselves statewide now
Nevada - Harry Reid
- Former Gov. Kenny Guinn
- Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki
- Rep. Dean Heller
New York - Chuck Schumer and potential Clinton vacancy
- Rudy Giuliani
- It's pretty slim pickings to find a good statewide figure or a non-parochial GOP Congressman, so we may be left looking to business or sports for other options
North Dakota - Byron Dorgan
- Gov. John Hoeven - declined to run in 2008 because of re-election bid, but wouldn't be up in 2010 and would be the ideal GOP statewide nominee
- Secretary of State Al Jaeger
- Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem
- State Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem (Wayne's brother)
- State Tax Commissioner Cory Fong
Oregon - Ron Wyden
- Sen. Gordon Smith
- Rep. Greg Walden
- Former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix
Washington - Patty Murray
- Dino Rossi
- Attorney General Rob McKenna
- 2006 Sen. nominee Mike McGavick
Wisconsin - Russ Feingold
- Rep. Paul Ryan
- Patrick Ruffini's blog
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Comments
CA Seat
I think she may be more interested in the Governor's seat, but I think Meg Whitman would make a viable Senate candidate as well.
Some names to add
California
- Darrell Issa - he has the money and is well known from the recall effort
Illinois
- Steve Rauschenberger - conservative former State Senator, has twice lost statewide primaries for Senate and Lieutenant Governor but has a good reputation as a reformer
New York
- Michael Benjamin, raised nearly a million dollars to challenge Schumer in 2004 but was forced out of the race by the state GOP...
North Dakota
- Ag Secretary and former Governor Ed Schafer
Vermont
- Martha Rainville - 2006 US House nominee, ran a great campaign
Wisconsin
- Former Rep. Scott Klug - member of the Gang of Seven, represented a Democratic district, been out of politics for a while but heard rumors he might be interested...
Agreed about the need for recruitment
The major problem the last two cycles has been the lack of good/viable candidates running for dem seats. This has given the democrats the advantage of playing on our turf. Someone like Hoeven needs to run in ND. Several high profile governors have turned down chances the last couple of elections.
Rudy would be great if he could run for an open seat against an unknown dem. running against Chuckie would be harder. I suppose Pataki is another option, he might not win, but he would put up a fight.
I'm no fan of Huckabee or his TV show, but would be a solid chance at a win if he would run in Arkansas.
Also you might want to think about candidates for Mass. Not to be morbid, but if reports are accurate then Ted Kennedy will be replaced soon. Plus John Kerry wants a spot in the Obama white house.
Would be sweet to take out Harry Reid.
Of course you should forget Mike Ditka, the only chance in Illinois is to run Alan Keyes again, just kidding.
Some Oregon Notes
It's rumored that Wyden is sick of Washington and may run for governor as Kulongoski is term limited in 2010, and thus leave his seat open. Maybe he & Teddy want to trade places? It's also thought that Walden may want to do the same thing on the Republican side of the gubenatorial ticket. Mannix is a possibility, but couldn't win his primary fight for CD-5 against Mike Erickson, in spite of Erickson's obvious electability problems.
Which incumbents are vulnerable?
I guess it's too early to determine the answer to this question, given that we had some surprises this year. But reports are at least five people from our side will face stiff challenges to keep their seats.
Nevada
You really should add Rep. Jon Porter to the list. He lost in 2008 in a district that is trending Democrat, but I still think he'd be the best challenger to Reid, who is not popular.
You suggested...
Arnold for the Senate? A contest between him and Boxer would be entertaining... but what track record of his do you think this RINO should run on? Somebody give me a Motrin, its not even 2010 and I have a headache...
Reply To Foghornboy
Well I live in California and I am in a cestpool of liberals, honestly if Los Angeles was it's own state then the CA elections would be ALOT more interesting.
But anyways even though Arnold is the biggest RINO I have ever seen in California politics and believe me there are a alot to go around, I would rather have Arnold has my Junior Senator than another 6 years of Barbara Boxer. Californian's can't take another term of either Feinstein or Boxer.
In my opinion I'd rather have a RINO (Arnold) than a WACKO (California Democrats) representing me any day of the week.
Also, California Assemblyman Chuck Devore is running against Boxer, and he is a true conservative. Help us Californian's elect a Republican Senator for the first time in 18 years.
CT
a) Rell has little interest in national issues. I think she'd only consider an open seat
b) Fedele is little known outside Stamford
c) Shays is not very partisan and is trying to get a job with Obama
d) Simmons is an animal and could do this. Other names to consider are US AAG Kevin O'Connor (fmr house candidate and US atty) or State Senator Sam Caligiuri
The Senate - don't try this at home, kids.
"That should start in the 2010 races for the Senate."
I read that and picture 20,000 center-right bloggers across the land pouring billions of words and hours into high-level politics upon which they can have absolutely zero influence or impact. Meanwhile, at the school board, village council, county commission and state legislative level statists and the government class will continue to dominate the action, with very little attention paid.
Hey folks, at these levels you really can have influence and make a difference. Don't get distracted by this other stuff.
Good point - local matters - but lets act on it
Go ahead and start some threads on that topic.
I'd like to look at all the Statehouse races in Texas and see where we can recruit. We have 7 Dem-owned seats right here in the Travis/Williamson/Hays central Texas area that we need to win back. I am all for having a discussion of how to recruit, campaign and win in these kinds of races.
Missouri: Kit Bond May retire
Replacement with Sarah Steelman? She lost against the GOP machine in MO for governor, but seems to be one of the new guard.
Go Outside the Box
Go outside the box even more, I think.
First, look at the class of 1980 and you've got a lot of people that you're not even considering. The people who got elected were County Executives (Al D'Amato), former Party Chairman (Mack Mattingly), and people who had never been elected to anything (Frank Murkowski.)
I'd humbly suggest that this project be handed out state by state to conservative groups. It really can't be resolved from up here, I don't people half these states, beyond what I've read.
Finally, Mike Huckabee is unavailable. He's not going to Congress and he's said it. Any recruitment project that has him on the list is foolhardy. You might try his sister, Pat Harris, though.
RUN RUDY RUN! ... For Governor!
This is a great thread you are putting together, but I think Rudy should be encouraged to run for NYGov. I'd give Rudy a 60% chance of beating Patterson, who has no real leadership creds, personal failings, and is basically admitting that New York is in fiscal crisis. It's almost a repeat of 1993 vs Dinkins.
Read on Redstate: " I see George Allen is considering running for Gov of VA...."
This would be a GREAT way to bring back the GOP into a state of hope, I am sure George Allen could retake the job he once had, and in the process rehabilitate his political career.
IL - "Mike Ditka" Oy vey! If only he had done this in 2004, history might be very different right about now.
Chirs Shays is a great pick against Dodd, especially if Shay can differentiate on issues of corruption. Dodd is a (D- Countrywide) Senator.
Should the Kennedy seat open up, an obvious name that presents itself is Mitt Romney, who ran for that seat in 1994.
Shays won't go negative
Simmons will. He's the better pick in CT.
If Rob Simmons had had Shays's district, he'd have been a Congressman for life.
New York
It's unlikely that the New York GOP will invest much in the fool's errand of going after Chuck Schumer, when there are other priorities such as the Governor's mansion, House seats, and most importantly, winning back the State Senate so we can avoid the kind of redistricting that would doom New York Republicans to the same fate as those in Illinois.
That said, here are some other figures who could consider running for Senate:
Rep. Peter King (R-NY 3)- Rep. King may have his eye on a statewide run, especially if his congressional district is gerrymandered out of existence by virtue of the projection that New York will lose two House seats in the upcoming census reapportionment. He would probably not challenge Rudy Giuliani for the gubernatorial nomination and has wide name recognition across Long Island, a longtime fertile ground for the GOP that has seen Democrat gains.
Assembly Minority Leader James Tedisco- Tedisco is the highest powered Republican assemblyman and could compete in parts of the Hudson Valley. He was also the recipient of Eliot Spitzer's "effing steamroller" comment.
Michael Benjamin- Benjamin, who will be 41 on Election Day 2010, was turned down for the nomination to challenge Schumer in 2004, but had outraised the GOP nominee and generated some buzz amongst more conservative Republicans.
Ed Cox- A conservative attorney with Paterson Belknap, he is the husband of Richard Nixon's daughter.
Peter King vs Schumer
I like him, and he could give Schumer a run for his money, but would his seat be safe for GOP if he left it? I guess your point is it wont be safe for long anyway.
Ed Cox and Chris Cox related?
King is "too good" to win a NY statewide
King is pro-life and anti-illegal immigration. That has not been a dealbreaker in his LI house district but I can't see him getting very many votes in NYC with both issues cutting against him.
King might have nothing to lose
Were the 3rd district an open seat, a Democrat upset wouldn't be inconceivable, but the district certainly has a Republican lean; King was re-elected by fairly comfortable margins.
My bigger concern is that reapportionment could do away with the seat entirely; New York is projected to lose two House seats after the Census. If that's the case, he'd have nothing to lose by running for Senate.
Sure, you could cut LI from 4 districts to 3
but you have to put a fair number of Republicans in one of the districts. Overly aggressive gerrymandering tends to backfire if given enough time. Carolyn McCarthy is not getting younger and the proximate cause to her election (the 1993 LIRR massacre) is fading from the public's memory. I doubt she'd want to face King in a head to head race.
Wisconsin
Ambassador and former-Rep Mark Green would be an excellent challenger in Wisconsin. In order to win in Wisconsin you have to win the Green Bay area (Fox Valley) and Mark Green proved he can. Green barely lost a governor race against Democrat Doyle during the anti-GOP 2006 election cycle and is still very popular in the state. He is a conservative who will advance conservatice stances. He would be on the list. Ryan is popular in his district and with conservatives, but he stated six years ago he did not want to challenge his "friend" Feingold.
Hawaii and California
Lingle might be able to win an open seat contest in Hawaii, but there will be several high powered Dems line up for that same seat, and the Dems have a complete stranglehold on the state. Lingle won an open Gov. seat race after narrowly losing her first effort, running against a very lackluster Lt. Gov. She won re-election in a walkover while the national GOP was still riding high. Her chances in an open seat race would be OK, but she'd have no chance taking on Inouye if he decides to run again, and signs are pointing to him doing so.
Re California -- who in the world suggested Devin Nunes?? He's a dim bulb -- there are probably 100 elected GOP politiicans throughout Calif. better suited to run statewide than Nunes. A rising star in the GOP -- assuming he wants to leave the House -- is Kevin McClatchey. A far superior politician and candidate to Nunes.
Re NY Governor
John Podhoretz was on Hugh Hewitt yesterday and he stated flat out that he would tell any serious GOP politician to stay away from the NY Governor's race. The state is so dependent on the flow of Wall Street money for its tax base that there is no guessing right now how big the revenue shortfall is going to be next year with the trillions of lost wealth in the stock market. Calif, a larger, wealthier and more populated state, can't find a way to close a $20 billion hole in its state budget. Podhoretz said he's heard doomsday predictions that NY's budget hole might be double that next year.
Rudy should run for the Senate. The biggest obstacle would be having to give up his private business dealings. I'm not sure he will do that. Not sure what the special election rules would be if Hillary resigns, but Rudy would likely lead the money race quickly with his history.
Bravo on Patrick's observation.
"The Dems have no shortage of self-sacrificing figures like Mark Warner who could have gone higher but instead performed a valuable service to their party by limiting their longshot national ambitions, keeping themselves in the game, and growing the party."
I have always thought it queer the political wanna-bees who only want to go for the top prize- president. (Pat Buchanan, Steve Forbes, and why didn't VP Quayle run for Gov to prove his chops). Buchanan could have done a Hillary and run in West Virginia and Forbes could have done a Corzine and bought a NJ senate seat.
Now we have Huckabee and Romney holding out for the top job.
Give Tony Brown (Journal) a shot in NY (or Floyd Flake)?
Rudy fixed the unfixable NYC, can he fix the basket case NY? Look what Reagan accomplished after Carter.
I like Huck for the senate run
A senate term would be good for Huckabee if he has presidential aspirations. He would also be a good vote to have there. Yes, he's not exactly conservative on economic issues, he doesn't have to be yet. He'll learn.
A senate term would be good
A senate term would be good for Huckabee if he has presidential aspirations.
Because up until now, we've been electing Senators left and right.
Yes, he's not exactly conservative on economic issues, he doesn't have to be yet. He'll learn.]
Yeah,because every person we send to the Senate gets more fiscal conservative the longer serve. In fact, if Huckabee became more fiscally conservative by serving in the U.S. Senate, he'd be the first person to do that.
Look, I think Huckabee's fine on fiscal issue, but he's been 100% crystal clear, he's not running. This is a fantasy baseball pick for the Senat because of what Huckabee has clearly stated.
Ruben Diaz in New York
I saw Floyd Flake mentioned; I like the idea of a former Democrat running on urban conservative issues. By that vein, I would also suggest Ruben Diaz, a South Bronx Democrat who has worked across the aisle many times and is frequently "cross-endorsed" by the GOP (New York candidates can run on multiple party lines).
http://www.observer.com/2008/politics/annoying-power-rub-n-d-az
He could probably run as a Republican if he continues to break with his party.
Let's turn Arkansas red.
Patrick,
Thanks for pointing out that my home state is ripe for the picking.
Not only did the state go +20 for McCain, but even the most liberal congressional district went +10 for McCain - and that number includes an 80-20 spread for BHO in Pulaski County, home of the state's largest city.
It is important that the state party identify a candidate to run against Blanche Lincoln (who has yet to announce her opposition to card check, despite representing a right to work state), but must find people to run against Reps. Marion Berry (D-AR01), Vic Snyder (D-AR02) and Mike Ross (D-AR04), and hold them accountable for the votes they will take in support of BHO's policies over the next two years.
I have more on the voting numbers on my site, at this link.
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