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A Note on the Early Vote

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 17:10

A number of lefties from Daily Kos to FiveThirtyEight have gotten into the habit of blogging something to the effect of, "Yes, McCain looks like he's closing in OH/PA/NC etc., but he's going to have trouble overcoming all the early votes Obama has banked."

Don't count on it.

While banking early or absentee votes is generally considered to be a good thing -- assuming you know who's voted and don't GOTV them on Election Day -- the strong Democratic early vote in places like North Carolina are more a product of demographics than momentum. One more Democrat voting early means one less Democrat voting on Election Day. While it's good to bank early votes, this is largely a zero sum game if the people voting early are women, African Americans, and economically downscale shift workers -- people who would vote for Obama no matter what.

So if polls are showing McCain up in North Carolina, don't assume that he's going to lose because he loses the early vote. Republicans have long "banked" their votes through absentee ballots, and still lose elections.

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Can.Not.Resist

Submitted by johnson springs on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 17:15.

One more Democrat voting early means one less Democrat voting on Election Day.

According to Soren, this may in fact not be the case.

It's just a deeper take on the old encouragement: vote early and often.

As chronicled elsewhere

Submitted by RisingTide on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 17:17.

every early vote means fewer opportunities for election day hassles. Shorter lines (and we know cities get the long lines every time) mean more people vote. It also means less voter intimidation (not everyone is a Minuteman).

The easier it is for the elderly (a McCain demographic) to vote, the more votes he gets.

Buck up, troops, and charge like the light brigade!

538

Submitted by carltonyates on Mon, 11/03/2008 - 19:31.

Nate Silver has consistently offered the most insightful polling analysis on the web. I dare say even better than Chuck Todd. His model now gives McCain a 1.9% chance of winning. As Bob Dylan sings "It's not dark yet, but it's getting there."

Early Voting Tea Leaves

Submitted by Captin Sarcastic on Tue, 11/04/2008 - 00:23.

"Republicans have long "banked" their votes through absentee ballots, and still lose elections. "

It's true, Republicans generally thrash Democrats in battlground states with early voting and absentee voting, but I suspect that when Democrats are thrashing Republicans in early voting, it represents a fundamental shift in enthusiam, that I believe will be carried over to election day.

For all the media's attempt to find a story in a runaway, i'll go ahead and make my prediction of 350+ for Obama, with a clear path to victory for Obama settled by 7 PM tomorrow night.

When Obama's supporters have a 20 point edge on enthusiam, and a 7 point edge in the national polls, this could convert to a 12 point popular victory and an electoral landslide.

And if I have to eat crow, at least it will be fresh, being that we'll know in less than 19 hours.