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Barack Obama vs. Universities, Food Banks, Churches, the Arts, and Housing
There's a reason people like me argue that elections have consequences, and it's because of Barack Obama's tax and spending proposals announced yesterday. Obama's massive $315 billion tax increase that violates a basic fairness principle in our tax code: that no matter who you are, we don't count a dollar of income for taxable purposes once deductions for things like charitable donations and mortgage interest are taken into account. Contrary to the White House's smarmy insinuations, the poor and the rich are treated exactly the same under current law.
The White House proposal would reach into these deductions and effectively levy an additional tax of 7% on charitable contributions and mortgage interest (and up to 11.6% if Obama's tax increases go into effect) for those in the highest tax bracket -- in other words, those with the most ability to support America's charities.
I smell overreach.
Even Steny Hoyer is raising red flags about what this means for charitable donations to the nonprofit world. The Realtors are also going after Obama's plan hard -- fearing it would almost certainly slow down any housing recovery. The main reason why the flat tax is such a nonstarter is that it zeroes out things like the mortgage interest deduction, which has been the backbone of responsible growth in the housing market. This is the worst of all possible worlds, reducing the tax benefits of owning a home or donating to charity -- while making the tax code all the more complex.
Moreover, this attacks Obama's base. Michael Barone noted to me today that universities can't be happy about this. Add to that list churches, the arts, the environmental groups, and organizations that serve the poor. This is a transfer of wealth not from the rich to the poor -- because the rich already given the money away, in many cases to groups that serve the poor -- but from the best kind of charitable aid to the worst kind -- government.
This is a massive opportunity for conservatives to kill something Obama is foregrounding in a broad bipartisan alliance. Powerful constituencies on the left could join the opposition. And this is a direct slap at the nation's churches, which direct the a big percentage of charitable aid in this country.
We can stop Obama's 7% surtax on charity and owning home.
- Patrick Ruffini's blog
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Comments
How does this get organized?
I would welcome the opportunity to participate in any online movement that seeks to bring a broad coalition of interests to bear on Democratic overreach. How does something like this get organized?
Pat, give us some legislative language.
Pat,
Are you referencing the expiration of the Bush tax cuts in 2011, or some new legislation? I'm a bit confused. But it's US tax policy, so that is probably par for the course.
Let's see the real numbers
Can you link to where you get your numbers from? It's good to debate on facts.
I was reading how Republicans were saying his budget taxes small businesses, but the numbers don't prove to be true: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090226/ap_on_go_co/fact_check_budget
Real Numbers
There are many figures that require validation, but the most staggering figures that I can definitely validate are those involving the fact that regardless of taxes and surtaxes, Obama's goal to cut the deficit is completely dependent upon a 4% growth rate as of 2011, a China-like growth rate that even China can no longer support.
The fantastical, wishful thinking about how to dig us out of the liberal economic policy hole with additional taxes, surcharges, penalties et al has absolutely no basis in reality. As Judd Gregg said in about 20 interviews yesterday, it's not a question of "if" the country will be bankrupted by these policies, it's a question of "when".
The best news here is what Patrick wrote about the opportunity for strange, unlikely, yet highly motivated alliances between conservatives and just about everyone else except strict Obama loyalists. There are a lot of former Obama loyalists who were convinced that he was the smartest guy in the room and would move neatly into the center after the election. The wheels are coming off that constituency now that he's proven beyond any doubt that he's headed as far left as possible and will drag not only the wealthiest with him, but also the middle class and the poor.
It's undeniable that cap and trade penalties will raise utility costs for everyone regardless of income level, and the Democrats are pretending that the "payroll tax rebate" of $8-13 per check will make up the difference in higher energy fees. People aren't going to "make up the difference" with any additional cash they receive, they'll want to spend it on much-needed or much-wanted items - or put it into their savings.
Talk about bitch-slapping your base: the group that will be the most ripe for alliance with conservatives will be the urban poor represented by the Congress of Racial Equality, lobbying for Drill Here, Drill Now and an end to punishing cap and trade fees on public utilities that will drive their heating and air conditioning costs through the roof of their apartment buildings, because these people are so poor they they don't even own houses for the government to bail out.
These are ruthless, scorched-earth policies which are absolutely shameful, irresponsible, dangerous and devastating. I hope you're able to validate any and all of the numbers you require to make a solid case to the American people against their implementation.
I'm sorry, but you'd rather risk all of our futures?
even the best scenarios see 3 degrees of warming... and that is with us basically turning off our fossil fuels. [brin had a few links on how we can fix global warming, but they're risky as all heck]
you're forecasting disaster. I pay -- $80 a month for electricity. Put a 20% surcharge on it, and that's not too much more.
But let's say that it goes up 50% -- that's still less than most people's cable bills.
And with the restructuring of our American Lifestyle, the electric bill gets spread out among more people than before (more people per house).
Let's just say you're correct about MMGW
I'm still agnostic on the subject, but for the sheer sake of argument let's say you're right. Help me understand, please, how our efforts to stop using fossil fuels are going to save the world when the two largest emerging nations who burn these fuels with no pollution controls whatsoever are not being held to the same standards? Last I heard, China wanted to negotiate their birth control agenda in return for not controlling carbon emissions. Personally I hope the climate is going through its traditional Earth-made global warming and cooling cycle so we can put an end to this kind of hypocrisy at best and avoid war with China and India over their refusal to save the planet at worst. Since the scientists are still duking it out - those who haven't quit their jobs over professional ostracism, shunning and other sanctions imposed by those who have made a cult of MMGW - I'm taking a wait and see attitude.
I gave up being an environmentalist in the 70's when the Green movement came out against nuclear power and imposed a 10-year permit process which has strangled our infrastructure, including our energy grid infrastructure. Due to the fact that many creatures have become extinct over the ages with or without human intervention, I'm not inclined to favor snail darters over people - especially those who don't share your income or your ascetic lifestyle inclinations.
I find your "restructuring of the American lifestyle" statement intriguing yet ominous. Forgive me if I respond as a reactionary to this notion, but I recall too well the seizure of private property during the Soviet era. Is this your sociological theory, or is it another very real aspect of some new Executive Order which has yet to be exposed to the public at large? Will this lifestyle restructuring involve voluntarily remodeling private property with our friends and families, or will we simply be provided by the government with a list of the newly homeless total strangers who will now be sharing our formerly private property?
10/10/08 changed everything.
Our economy as a whole will change/is changing, and the old one won't come again in my lifetime or yours.
Welcome to the New America!
No, this ain't some big government conspiracy. This is people remembering what it's like to save a non-zero amount of money each month. That and the worldwide depression.
But understand this -- America will no longer be able to proceed as if she is the only consumer in the world. We will have to rebuild an export based economy, and that means a more agile economy, in general.
The bit about people sharing houses? That, again, is purely voluntary -- aka "saving money" driven. In a depression, people share housing. I don't expect that to last, but the future of American housing is likely to be smaller houses/condos/apartments.
China's economy is busy collapsing. I do not think China would go to war over global warming -- nor India. They have other problems, and they may not survive this depression in anything like their current state.
Stay an environmentalist -- we can both get together and bitchslap the stupid anti-nuclear-energy folks. Yes, there are problems with nuclear energy. I believe in American ingenuity -- let's fix 'em!
You should understand that every competent scientist can read trendlines. That's why there is FAR less disagreement about the extent of the Global Warming that has already occurred, than there is about basically any other theory (including gravity and evolution. folks who publish alternatives to those get published in quality peer reviewed journals).
But even if it is somewhat natural -- we can't afford to take the chance. That's what being conservative is about, after all. Not allowing radical and crazy things to happen, just because "they might turn out good." We currently ride the very inside edge of Class M planets.
Oh, do I seem Ascetic to you? $80 a month means about $30 towards a computer, plus cooking dinner every night, plus humidifiers and dehumidifiers, plus the air purifier... We got a lot of electronics in the house!
Maybe in my heart I know you're right
To quote one of my favorite old skool conservatives, but I am still clinging to my denial even if resistance is futile. But of course you also know you had me at "we can both get together and bitchslap the stupid anti-nuclear-energy folks". Maybe once this teaparty populism runs its course we can lobby Koch to fund the Nuclear Power to the People movement. Common cause, Baby.
I'd really rather we didn't need to jumpstart our economy
but we do, I'm certain of it. I'll be glad to join in on the "teaparty populism" once we get out of this mess.
Ahh, but devil's always in the details.
Me personally, I want to take down the 401ks, Kill Social Security, and fold whatever medicaid/medicare we've got into whatever universal health care we've got. Then inflate the hell out of our currency. It's tried and true -- the conservative way! ;-)
If we aren't all iterants living in our cars by then, we should all have a grand time!
St. John Bogle
has been participating in the low key Congressional hearings on 401K reform. This gives me some hope, but only if they actually heed his advice to keep the system in the private sector.
ooh! rich tasty linky goodness!
my thanks. to be clear, I'm not for eliminating them, but for eliminating the tax breaks they get -- on both the employer and employee sides. I do not want the American taxpayer participating in any more ponzi scams, if we can help it (and with how easy it is to invest using your own broker -- well, this is the best Time Ever!)
I think I get it now.
I believe the controversy can be reduced to this:
Obama proposes that the charity and mortgage interest deduction for those making in exccess of $250K be reduced. Still not sure how big a reduction. Maybe someone can get the language in the bill.
But the reasoning Obama is using is, for us small fry in the 15% or so bracket, every dollar of deduction saves us 15 cents in taxes we would have paid. But for the big dogs in the 30% or so bracket, they save 30 cents for every dollar of deduction.
There is a quite easy solution. Structure the Schedule A and 1040 forms such that your taxes owed are calculated in the begining of the form from your income before deductions and credits. Then further along in the forms everyone gets to deduct or credit against their computed tax owed at exactly the same rates regardless of their tax bracket. Say, 20 or 25 cents on the dollar for everyone.
You are not being realistic
Hi,
As someone in the tax bracket that will suffer most from Obama's increase, and as someone on the board of a non-profit, I can assure you that you are not grounded here. This move by Obama is something that will be very well received. It is viewed as reasonable and fair. You characterize the White House's defense as a "smarmy insinuation" but it is really a very clever way to look at the math, and it is inarguable. I get a a greater tax rebate for every $10K I donate to charity than my secretary does. How is that possibly fair? Yes, it is a clever new way of framing the issue, but it happens to make sense and will resonate with everyone who gives money to charity and has enough money to care about these things.
The right needs to focus on measures that will reduce waste and corruption in Obama's spending. Obama has so out-maneuvered the right on taxes that is a hopeless angle. Lets face it, he just delivered the largest tax break in history. And his budget makes permanent his tax breaks for 95% of the country. And the 5% of the country that will pay more is largely (but not uniformly) sympathetic to Obama's arguments--people remember doing very well in the Clinton years with higher marginal tax rates. And people with enough money to afford all the personal consumption they wants--cars, houses, TVs, vacations, etc--do care about the quality of state delivered services: I want good schools in my neighborhood. I don't want my town library to shut down. I care veteran's benefits (though I am not a veteran). I don't want the city I am located next to (I am in the suburbs) to decline with greater crime and poverty. I can't but any more flat screen TVs or a larger house--just don't need it. I do want some of those societal goods only government can provide, and if I have to pay a few percent more at the margin in taxes it is worth it (I spent more than I needed (but not more than I could afford) to buy something approximating a "dream house" why would I not spend what it takes (in taxes) to get the societal goods I also care about.)
I think the biggest opportunity for the right is that one literally can not spend these massive sums without waste and corruption. If the right can help constrain that, it has a great angle for relevance.
yeah, the right would be better served by focusing on waste
Glad to hear from someone in the middle class (aka $250,000 bracket and above).
I'm all for removing, or dramatically decreasing the mortgage credit. It serves to concentrate wealth in current homeowners, while removing wealth from renters. This sucks, because homes are one of the few ways that people accumulate wealth in the FIRST place!
What about Social Security?
Please forgive me for not reviewing your years of entries, but I am curious as to your thoughts on the Social Security tax? That only affects the first $102k of wages. To be fair, then, this should extend to all wages/earnings. Maybe, rather than limiting charitable deductions to 28% (vs 35% for the top earners) we should just make FICA effective on all earnings.
SS Tax
SS is not a TAX, it is a contribution to the SS Insurance Trust Fund. And I do believe that one of the scenarios currently being studied will extend payroll deductions for FICA and Medicare out to the $250,000 level, and maybe beyond.
Also under study is a way to means-test distributions: That is to say, just like an insurance company limits payout if damage is not severe to a car, and does not keep paying, if a contributor ends up in an income bracket where the $2k/month that is SS will not make a material difference, say if you are lucky enough to retire in the $250k plus bracket, then maybe SS doesn't have to pay off on the coverage either. Both approaches are under study.
In addition, if the President is succesful in his attempt to forever change the way medical care is billed and delivered in this country, Medicare expenditures will see a tremendous change downward. Right now, Medicare is the fastest-growing, in fact alarmingly growing, expense component that is draining the SS Fund. And that is entirely due to the out-of-control growth of medical costs in this country.
It is so refreshing to have an Administration that is looking at these things as Best Practices towards Good Government, and not as chips placed for re-election.
On that note, please celebrate with me the 8th Anniversary of VP "Dick" Cheney's secret Energy Task Force meetings with Big Oil and Big Energy and Big FInance seninor executives in early 2001, the details of which we have not yet been able to pry loose. What a difference at the same point in these Administrations, huh?
Factually untrue
"...a basic fairness principle in our tax code: that no matter who you are, we don't count a dollar of income for taxable purposes once deductions for things like charitable donations and mortgage interest are taken into account..."
1. The charitable deduction has been subject to an Adjusted Gross Income floor for years. In other words, the first few hundred or few thousand (depending on your AGI) that you give away as charity is not deductible at all, it is only contributions in excess of that floor that get deducted. Same thing for Medical Expenses.
2. I have never understood why mortgage interest is tax deductible, but education loan or auto loan or any other kind of loan interest is not.
I applaud our President and his team for thinking outside the box, and finding ways to make our tax code a little more progressive after years of pressure in the other direction.
wait one cotton picking minute!
education loan interest is ABSOLUTELY tax deductable.. up to about $2500 a year. Why not just limit housing interset to the same? I hate the whole mortgage interest benefit with a PASSION!
Absolutely right
Thanks for the correction - IRS says the smaller of $2500, or the actual interest you paid.
HOWEVER the deduction is "phased out" for those whose Modified Gross Adjusted Income is $70k+
and this is why i like dealing with liberals around here.
they acknowledge when they're in error.
;-)
$70K? shit. didn't know it was that low...
He is willing to spend a little political capital
I was very pleased to see the steps taking this week to remove the smoke and mirrors from the budgetary accounting system. That was a tough and brave - and, most importantly, CORRECT - decision on the part of the Obama administration. Regarding this current move, where you "smell overreach", I see a man willing to spend a little political capital to get a problem solved. Newsflash - the previous administration cut taxes for 8 years and drove the economy into a ditch.
This is just another variation on the supply-side, trickle down economics that got us into this mess and which no one believes any more. That kind of thinking produced this recession - and what do you think is going to have more impact on those institution - the recession, or this rule change?
the recession.
baltimore opera is already closed.
The Recession
The recession is when your neighbor loses his job, the depression is when you lose your job, and the recovery is when Obama loses his job.
Very well said lagomorph ..
Very well said lagomorph .. online fine arts degree might save you from losing your job.
Isn't that bipartisanship?
Pissing off people from both the right *and* the left? Asking his own supporters to make sacrifices... Seems fair to me!
Anyway. The key you seem to be missing (just like all the other GOP talking heads) is that for couples earning less than 250k (and individuals under $200k), there will be no tax increase (shades of "read my lips... no new taxes"?) So the vast fraction of home-buyers will be unaffected. As for the rich making charitable donations - previous commenters have written better responses. I'd just add that if you believe exit polling, half this tax bracket voted for Obama, so they should have known what they were getting into, and so would not support this crusade to save the rich ;-)
And the groups that Patrick is so worried about
And the groups that Patrick is so worried about: universities, arts groups, environmental groups, organizations that serve the poor - I'm pretty sure they are largely run and staffed by people who voted for Obama as well. And I imagine that they will also see this as an issue of "fairness" not "smarminess" (that claim in the OP is really bizarre).
Obama's trying to make everyone rely on the government...
This has nothing to do with raising taxes and everything to do with liberals thinking government reliance is a good thing.
Obama's budget:
Come off it
A slight drop in the deductions people making over $250,000 for their charitable contributions will not "destroy" anything.
You don't think that HMO's and private health care have made a mess of medical care in this country? Quality keeps dropping, co-pays keeps zooming, choices keep narrowing, and all competition has done to this industry is create huge cost centers for advertising and marketing, and forcing HMOS to pay for that through creating red-tape and "customer-service" centers whose success is measured in claims denied or reduced.
It is way past time for this country to join every other advanced country in the world in helping the people get efficient, low-cost, high quality Medical care, and thereby eliminating the USA's competitive disadvantage created by out-of-control commercial health care costs built into the prices of everything we try to sell, especially our cars.
Nobody is saying anyone with the means cannot get an add-on med-insurance policy like the rich in Canada and the UK enjoy, which allows them to obtain boutique-quality medical services from international superstars. That will continue, as it always has. from the time of the Egyptians.
Obama is talking about everyone else: especially the middle class, which right now is caught in a double-jaw squeeze, seeing more and more after-tax dollars vanishing from their paychecks as businesses are forced to deduct more and more premiums, and getting less and less coverage for their money.
i thought competition was good?
a free market and all that?
Are you joking?
I can't tell.
The mortgage interest deduction
...could be bad in itself! I was thinking of this earlier - how people end up buying bigger homes than they could afford. Here's a good read in... the WSJ!
"But many economists have long argued that the deduction doesn't actually have a significant impact on home ownership, and instead mainly subsidizes the cost of buying a home for the richest Americans, who would buy homes even without it. Some have blamed the mortgage-interest deduction, in part, for spurring borrowers to take out larger mortgages in order to maximize their subsidy.
"One of the costs of the deduction has become painfully obvious to the extent that we have encouraged borrowers to bet so heavily on housing. That now looks foolish," said Edward L. Glaeser, a Harvard economist."
you MUST check out
http://www.amazon.com/Black-Wealth-White-Perspective-Inquality/dp/041591...
it gets into the homeownership thing, and how it adversely affects minorities.
A 2006 Poll of high net worth individuals re charitable giving
Recall that the new tax rules only impact thost making $250K or more. Here is a link to a PDF of a 2006 poll by Bank of America into charitable giving by high net worth individuals.
Figure 21 on page 21: How would you change your charitable giving if you received ZERO income tax deductions for your donations?
That's right, folks - if the deduction went to ZERO only 7% would have a snit.
The proposed change is no where near that drastic - it reduces the deduction from the current 33% or 35% to 28%.
So, Patrick, I'd say nice try, but you are going to have to find something else to fix your outrage to - this is a tempest in a teapot.
Why should we believe that poll?
It basically asks if you give to charity for altruistic reasons or if you'd ditch your "worthy causes" if there wasn't anything in it for you.
Why should you not believe that poll?
Why on earth would people - in 2006 - have said what they didn't mean?
bradley effect
Well, RisingTide has a good point - it sounds so terribly gauche to admit to a pollster that you're motivated by income tax deductions when "everybody knows" that you "ought to be" motivated by selflessness, altruism, and love. So I'd be a little skeptical of the 7% number too. I'd say that's probably only a lower limit to the number of people who would dramatically change their behavior if the income tax deduction were abolished. Think of it as a "Bradley effect" for charity.
Motivated by getting a deduction?
I realize that the poll is very inconvenient in that it destroys the argument that Obama is Satan, but even so, think about what you are saying. People make charitable deductions so that they can get a tax deduction. They give away a dollar to get 35 or 33 cents back. Now that they will only get 25 cents back, they are going to refuse to give away the dollar.
unintended consequences
I didn't say Obama was Satan. I said that he evidently believes, along with large quantities of liberals, that charity is a task best left to government. I do not believe this is per se evil. I do think it will lead to negative unintended consequences that even liberals should be concerned about. Such as, for instance, the potential decrease in contributions to secular charities by high net worth individuals. I understand liberals sneer when those rubes in the sticks tithe their income and call it "charity", but certainly you can show concern for reduced donations to art galleries and environmental nonprofits?
On the margin, quite possibly. It's called economics. Look at it this way. On one end, you have the status quo, where charitable gifts are rewarded via the tax code at a certain level. On the other end, you have a possible scenario in which there are no deductions at all for charitable donations. (Not saying Obama is proposing this, just using it as an example.) To the extent that people are incentivize to give charitably via the tax code, eliminating the deduction entirely would reduce charitable gifts compared to the status quo. So, everything in between the status quo and zero income tax deduction represents a decrease, in the aggregate, of charitable contributions.
Besides, liberals are the ones who are always complaining about the superman-esque accountants hired by the rich to avoid as much tax liability as possible. Don't you think that these superman-accountants will promply advise their customers on how they can adjust their lifestyle to avoid taxation? And don't you think some of this advice, in light of this proposal, will consist of reducing charitable contributions?
You can make all the unfounded allegations you want
You can make all the unfounded allegations you want to the effect that Obama is opposed to private charity. I am demonstrating the point that today's changes aren't going to have any impact on charitable donations. The difference it makes in the "incentive" to make a donation is so small as to not be worth discussing - as the poll demonstrates.
To hear you, who argues that the government should not be intervening to try to arrest the current economic collapse, talking about unintended consequences if pretty rich.
Well...
If Obama isn't opposed to private charity, he's at least willing to make it harder. He's decided to tax charity rather than taxing any number of other things, and it's patently obvious that taxing things discourages those things.
And let's recap the last several posts for a second, distilling out the part about the poll:
... aaaand we're right back where we started. Your insistence on not listening to your opponents -- or not directly confronting their arguments -- is invincible.
chemjeff: if your opponent can't or won't faithfully reproduce your argument, call them out on it. If they persist, give up on them and say why. Then enjoy all the time you've saved.
No, it's really not. It would be rich if he denied that any of his preferred policies would have unintended consequences. I haven't seen him make that claim.
Even shorter summary
1) I post a poll that pwns the OP
2) Others find that poll inconvenient becasue they want to argue that Obama hates charities, and so they say the poll can be relied upon, becasue, well....becasue they say so.
Repetition will have to do.
And I'm done. Feel free to have the last word.
excellent advice
That is excellent advice. Thanks.
just give it up, will ya?
I didn't say Obama was opposed to private charity. I said that by his actions Obama demonstrates that he prefers that government be the organization most responsible for charitable acts. And you have failed to make any such point. Your own citation demonstrates that 45% of high net worth individuals would reduce their charitable donations if the tax deduction were abolished, strongly suggesting that tax avoidance is a strong motivation for charitable giving. Look, just give it up.
And I never said that government should do nothing with regards to this current recession. What I said was that doing nothing was preferable to the Porkulus bill that was recently enacted, but my preferred option was a bold program of tax relief, regulatory reform, and spending reduction that would both return money back to the taxpayer, incentivize business to expand, and provide long-term expectations of government fiscal prudence. Do try to keep up.
For the record...
I'm not RisingTide.
My apologies!
sorry!
because more than 50% of people admit to picking
their nose, when you poll them. there are certain stigmatized things, like racism, but decreasing your charitable giving is hardly likely to be something you're embarrassed about, if you would actually do it.
In other words: look, these people already have enough money to live on. where else would they put their money? in investments? that's a good thing, right?
Does not follow
How would you know what they're ashamed of? So a majority of people can admit to an unsanitary habit, and even then, we don't know how many people were lying.
Problems with your comparison:
Maybe, maybe not. I think it's quite possible for charity to do more good than a business investment. And that's assuming they invest the money; it's always possible to consume more.
at this point, any circulation of money into the
economy is good. we need the money being spent, not saved for health care.
I agree with 2. it's a far stronger argument than 1. -- although 10/10/08 changed everything,a nd many will be unable to give even if they'd wish (madoff investors)
Great Catch
I had not seen this before, thanks! Makes perfect sense.
People do not contribute in order to collect a tax deduction, they do so from a desire to be charitable to those in need.