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Declaring Victory in Iraq

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 15:54
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The developments over the last few days with Al-Maliki suggest that Republicans are at some point soon going to have to begin incorporating withdrawal into their lexicon. That's because we're winning. And a big reason why we're winning is John McCain.

The only reason that Obama can talk about 16 months and not sound radical is because the surge has worked. The situation doesn't seem as urgent as it once did. In fact, Iraq doesn't figure very much in the public's angst anymore.

At some point, this debate is going to have to stop being retrospective (where were you on the surge?) and start being about you draw down troops and still preserve the security gains that came from the surge John McCain fought for. 

There is a danger, to the extent we are seen as turning the corner, that Obama could align himself with a sense of rising optimism on Iraq through calls for withdrawal. And anyone suggesting an open-ended commitment could come to be seen as the pessimists, a role reversal from the last five years. The public's reasoning will no longer be, "It's hopeless, so we must withdraw." It could be, "We're winning, so we can safely withdraw."

And before I get catcalls on this, remember that John McCain sees an end date: 2013. So this is something we're going to have to begin preparing for.

What can we do to make sure that the debate is one of "draw down and win" vs. "precipitously withdraw and lose?"

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Priority / Strategy

Submitted by josephcollins on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 16:06.

I recently remarked about many of the same things you did over at my personal blog.  I don't have any good answers, but the precise differences between McCain and Obama are over priorities (winning vs ending) and strategies (what happens if...).

Don't know if this helps - sometimes the strangest turns of a phrase can juice one's thoughts - but that's what I came up with.

Conditions

Submitted by CJK on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 16:50.

Just keep repeating the fact that, while withdrawing troops is a prority, any withdrawal should be entirely conditions-based. Otherwise we would be irresponsibly throwing away what our soldiers have spent the past five years fighting and dying for.

If Obama disagrees then he is a fool and if he agrees then that means he must abandon his timetable. And if he tries to have it both ways then he is a straddler who can't be trusted. 

The frame ought to be....

Submitted by Ironman on Mon, 07/21/2008 - 21:18.

"Who do you trust to being our troops home the right way?"...someone who has a proven record on the military, or a rookie? 

Victory! vs. Victory?

Submitted by cougar on Fri, 07/25/2008 - 12:19.

I am just curious, why is the surge now victorious.  The peaks of violence have happened after the surge was initiated.  The violence, we're told, is now lower than before, but that's only because a polotician is telling me that they are.  Can somebody supply some sources of how violence has decreased and how much it has decreased compared to each month so far this year? (numbers within those sources would be great)  It's curious to me that we've been losing and our troops are going to have to stay there 'for a 100 years', but all of a sudden we are winning and we can start redeploying troops.  Why now?  What has happened?  Is violence really down that much from the last, oh, three months?  If so, fine, show me the numbers.  If not, why now?

Here's my take:The prime minister finally says, 'Alright, I want you out.  Set up a timetable,' and within a week we have declared 'victory' and we can start withdrawing 'based on conditions on the ground.'  When the prime minister first said this, McCain-Bush said that we could not withdraw.  Once they determined it could be spun as 'it's a victory, we're leaving', all I've been able to hear is that "We have won and we wouldn't have won if we listened to Obama".  What has changed in the last 2 weeks where McCain was saying we couldn't leave because of conditions to now where we can because of victory?  Can somebody explain?