Dem Convention Trainwreck?

No one wants to be Mark "Where's the Bounce?" Penn this week. Any hard and fast proclamations about polls should be resisted, though the race apparently tightening post-Biden is certainly one data point to consider. 

We can only conjecture about the environment, and how it is likely to affect the polls. And the environment is less than it could be for the Obama-Biden ticket during their big week.

• Biden isn't inspiring and doesn't win votes. I can appreciate this was a governing decision, and not a campaign decision. But that will cost Obama in the bounce department in the next couple of weeks, and lead him to underperform in September polling once the RNC dust has settled (assuming McCain does well with his VP pick).
• The Clinton chatter is dominant. The Clintons will get two nights in Denver -- Hillary Tuesday, and Bill Wednesday. The coverage on the cables so far this morning has been all about the Clintons. High-profile Clinton surrogates complaining about the lack of VP vetting with the RNC/McCain capitalizing, Bill being upset about his speech topic, Hillary jerking her delegates around, effectively telling them "Nevermind" after making a show about the "catharsis" of the roll call a couple of weeks ago. If the Clintons really wanted to screw with Obama's chances, setting up Hillary 2012, this would be the week to do it. And this is what they seem to be doing.
• The DNC program leaves much to be desired. Is Michelle Obama big enough to carry her own night when you typically want 2-3 high profile speakers in prime time? Jim Leach (this is the biggest Republican you could find for Obama?) and Claire McCaskill being given more prominent slots than the emotional Kennedy tribute? 50% of the Convention being devoted to the Clintons, with all the distractions that brings. Where the RNC schedule is almost too cluttered (Lieberman, Schwarzenegger, Cheney & Bush on one night), the DNC's barely packs a punch.

Of course, 80% of the bounce will come post-Thursday, so any speculation here is mostly academic. But the schedule and optics aren't optimized for an above-average bounce. And as 2004 showed, the lack of a convention bounce matters.