Does Mitt Romney Want to Be Vice President?

Mitt Romney has been popping up everywhere lately and remains one of the most discussed candidates for Vice President. Romney himself has been notably less than Shermanesque in disclaiming his ambitions for the VP slot.

This is puzzling because Romney shouldn't want to be McCain's veep. And it's quite possible that he actually doesn't.

I find all the breathless speculation about the VP on both sides actually kind of silly. Historically, the Vice Presidents -- and especially failed Vice Presidential candidates -- don't get elected President. The pretty big caveat in here is that they can succeed into the office at any time through death or resignation, and this has historically been the main pathway into the Oval for VPs.

When George Bush was elected in 1988, people remarked that a "curse" had been broken. The last #2 to manage election in his own right was Martin Van Buren in 1836. And remember who they succeeded: Andrew Jackson and Ronald Reagan, two of the great realigning figures in American history.

The track record of losing VP candidates is even worse. John Edwards. Joementum. Jack Kemp (who didn't run again). Dan Quayle. Walter Mondale. Bob Dole managed to get nominated, but on the back of his recent Senate leadership, not his VP candidacy 20 years earlier. The last failed Vice Presidential candidate to be elected President was Franklin D. Roosevelt. He had been the Vice Presidential candidate in 1920, but here again, his political identity was that of Governor of New York.

Mitt Romney is already in line to be the nominee in 4 years if McCain loses under the GOP Law of Primogeniture. Why would he want to muck it up with a VP run? If McCain loses, it is all downside for Mitt. People would forget all the positive aspects of his Presidential run and remember his role on a losing ticket. (See Edwards, John.) 

And even if McCain wins, Romney would face a tough road getting elected in his own right. Republicans are already facing voter exhaustion after 8 years in power. Could they win a third or fourth consecutive election even if they manage to pull it out in '08? The possibility grows progressively unlikelier. It is very likely that McCain still harbors thoughts of serving one term, setting up his VP as his natural successor. If McCain were a successful President, it would be a lot easier to re-elect him than transfering his brand to a VP, always a dodgy proposition (just ask Al Gore). The Democrats would have an even more compelling argument for "change" in 2012.

I have to assume that Romney knows his history, and knows that he is already in pole position for the nomination under the likeliest scenario, a McCain loss (calling them as I see 'em, folks).

Why does he seem to be lobbying for the job then?

Because it can be quite advantageous to be talked about as a potential Vice President without getting the nod. VP buzz is what separates promising future candidates from the pack of senators and governors. The reason the majority of the GOP base knows Bobby Jindal isn't because of his remarkable personal narrative or throwing the bums out in Louisiana. It's because he gets talked about for VP.

John F. Kennedy threw his name into contention for VP in 1956. If he'd actually gotten it, he probably wouldn't have been the nominee, but getting buzz and leaving the party hungry for more was the perfect setup for his Presidential campaign.

John Edwards was actually Joe Lieberman's runner-up for the VP slot in 2000 and this got people talking.

And John McCain was not Bob Dole's VP in '96, but was constantly at his side and traveled on the plane the last few weeks of election. This earned him some political chits and set up his 2000 run.

The lesson here is that if you're going to run in your own right, you're better off as the nominee's BFF not VP.

VP buzz gets Romney headlines and speaking engagements around the country without being overshadowed and having to share in the downsides of an uphill Presidential campaign. But it's still unlikely he would get picked because of the questionable personal chemistry between the two men, and Romney has to know this. But as a high level surrogate, Romney gets to travel around the country making the case for McCain better than McCain himself and leaving the base hungry for more.

Best case scenario: After November people say "If only McCain had picked Romney..."