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GOP Stabilizing in the House & Senate?

Submitted by Patrick Ruffini on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 00:11
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Two days ago, I floated a theory about the awful string of special elections this spring. The specials in IL-14, LA-6, and MS-1 all followed Democratic primaries in those states, while the Democratic nominating contest was going on. Meanwhile, special elections in OH-5, MA-5, and IN-7, ending in mid-February, yielded results well within expectations with slight boomlets for the Republican candidates. All of these primaries occurred well before Democrats had been primed to vote in the Presidential primary in those states.

This theory is bolstered by this chart posted on Open Left a month back:

This is highlighted as good news for the Democrats, but all it shows is a rise of Democratic affiliation around the primaries (which can be likened to the smaller GOP bump around the 2004 election).

This means that the Democratic rolls were engorged for a period of time this spring, as 37 million people voted in a 50-state primary process. This did not lead directly to stronger Obama numbers in the general election since half of these people were invested in defeating Obama. But it did lead to some funky numbers in Congressional races in states where Democrats had just voted.

So, we saw an initial round of polling showing Mitch McConnell trailing in Kentucky and Elizabeth Dole up within the margin in North Carolina and John Cornyn only up by 4 in Texas.

And today?

Dole leads by 14. Cornyn is up by 17. Gordon Smith, who has to be on anyone's list of beatable Republican incumbents leads Jeff Merkley by 9 in Oregon, an Obama +8 state. 

I'm not saying things aren't tough, particularly in the Senate. But I would argue there is a chance for more of a "normal" year than a repeat wave, which would be an historical aberration. Democratic euphoria has subsided since the end of full bore campaigning about a month ago. We need to take stock of things in the next few weeks to see if the primary period -- in which only one side was thoroughly (and massively) engaged in politics -- didn't create some downballot distortions.

As I've said before, beware the head game. If things turn our way, it won't be until August or September.

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Comments

Don't Forget New Jersey!

Submitted by RedMango on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 00:34.

Rasmussen has the incumbent Democrat ahead by just a point over Republican Dick Zimmer.    "But it's New Jersey, they will vote Democrat come November".  Blah blah.  Dick Zimmer is a damn good conservative, it's up to people in the party and the movement to do their best to support a conservative for Senate.  Because you're not getting anymore in other races.  

Maybe the fact the GOP isn't running Congress now

Submitted by Ironman on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 06:45.

has started to seep into voter's consciousness.  Certaintly the new "leadership" is not doing a boffo job

Consider this

Submitted by Repack Rider on Sun, 06/15/2008 - 13:21.

Everything has a cycle.  Wasn't it just a few years ago that Karl Rove told us about a "permanent Republican majority" that lasted all of six years?

The GOP ran congress from 1994 to 2006 with a Republican in the White House during the last six years, and then got blown out of the water even though congressional Democrats were absolutely powerless during that time.  The damage will continue in the upcoming election, when even more seats will be lost to the Democrats.

Analysis of this takeover has to start with GOP failure, not with Democratic success.

I think any prediction that a Democratic congress will self-destruct soon is overly optimistic.  The performance of a Democratic majority with a Democratic president, and I fully expect Obama to be president, will be the test that the public responds to.  Projecting conservative fantasies onto a future Democratic congress with a friend in the White House is pointless and ultimately leads to disappointment.  Since a Democratic congress is a fait accompli, and a Democratic presidency is highly likely, any response must be to WHAT THEY ARE DOING, not what they MIGHT DO.

We need to mimic their recent tactics

Submitted by Ironman on Sun, 06/15/2008 - 13:28.

While Dean's "50 state strategy" no doubt wasted resources, it also made sure that Republicans in "safe" seats with some indicia of Democratic activity could no longer do and say whatever they wanted. They also successfully defined moderate Republicans as closely tied to the DeLay leadership, whether accurate or not (how c'mon there still is a death tax and there isn't ANWR drilling?).

We need to put the same level of pressure on the Dems. As a NY Giants fan, I can assure you even Tom Brady can;t beat you if he is on his back.  

Looks like a strong minority in Congress...

Submitted by davidfarrar on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 07:24.

...if Obama gets the presidency, which will act to limit the damage he can cause, while Republicans party-build. All we need do now is reform the Republican Party to be a completely (Online) structure, we can regain Congress by 2010. By 2012, we can obtain a veto-proof Congress and the presidency.

All we need do now is stick to our conservative values and realize the most important thing is not winning this election, but the next next six.

ex animo

davidfarrar

The second most important thing this election cycle....

Submitted by St. Louis Conse... on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 10:20.

....after defeating Obama....is to make sure that we have a workable minority in the senate.  We need to have at 41 solid votes to block anything REALLY bad like card check or socialized health care.  Given that you always have a few moderate Republicans going off the reservation, I think we really need have 44-45 senators, which will be tough, but doable.

This ID GAP will lessen

Submitted by GMax on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 10:30.

Patrick

Thanks for that, you posted what I have been thinking for some time now.  RAS is using this ID gap to adjust his polling to likely voters without much evidence that this is not something other than a temporary phenomenom.  If it drops three or four points you will see a massive change in polling results and I see no reason to believe youth are going to vote in larger % than they did even when McGovern was running.  Nor do I believe that blacks can be mined for more votes because that field has been picked over for years since Democrats knew that everyone that they got to the polls was about a 85% probability of a D vote.  Maybe they wont have to run so many buses and pass out as much cigarettes and cash this time, but its still the same voters.

So if we get back to something like a 3 or 4 % gap between the two parties, and McCain continues his conquering of the Independents we will hold the veto pen come November.

Dont forget that the Senate table is abnormally shifted to the Rs disadvantage this go round.  Since its only 1/3 of the Senate this year and the vast majority are R seats, its looks worse than it is.  In two years after the Democrats and their corruption wears on the voters some more, we will have more D seats up and more chances to move back to the majority.

I do think the House if it gets smart and adopts a Drill Now ! battle cry,  can be close to a wash this go round.  I may be in the minority on that, but I am seeing lots of signs of mod Dems balking at supporting Obama or even tying their campaigns to the National Dems.  We dont see their internal polling, just their behavior.  If a wave were coming, why would they be acting like this, as its likely to bring some wrath from the Speaker who is a flaming lib and a strong supporter of Obama.   HMMM

One other possibility

Submitted by GMax on Sat, 06/14/2008 - 10:42.

I think this self indentication thing is more to do with Bush and his unfavorables right now.  Since lots of moderates and independents are very dissatisfied with Bush, I think they are reluctant to call themselves Rs and some are even saying Ds, but they dont mean Obama Ds, more like Heath Schuler Ds.  And once we get closer to the election and more folks are paying closer attention to all of this, it will be apparent that Bush is not standing for reelection and the self ID will move back much closer to the historical norms. 

Louisiana

Submitted by ouztstopia on Sun, 06/15/2008 - 14:19.

The GOP has a chance to take a Senate seat from an incumbent Democrat in Louisiana.  The last Rasmussen Poll (June 1) showed John Kennedy trailing Mary Landrieu 47-44. 

 

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_...